As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.

Hello,

Apologies for the month-long absence. Given that I currently write these notes before 7AM on my weekday mornings alongside a full-time job in AI and geopolitics, I’m going to make them shorter so I can try to publish them consistently.

This week’s Telegram examines Kenyan President William Ruto’s visit to the United Kingdom. This bilateral is one steeped in history and complexity, from the hangovers of the British Empire in the last century to the aspirations of an AI-enabled partnership in the 21st. Both are trying to carve out a tech-enabled future for themselves. Both face varying economic and demographic challenges. Both are facing political heat at home. And both see themselves as deserving of a place at the big boy table on geopolitical and geoeconomic issues.

Finally, I will be visiting Washington D.C. mid-August. If you fancy a coffee/beer/walk, please get in touch!

— Sam Hogg

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, met Kenyan President William Ruto in London.

2. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, visited Turkey. The trip was framed through a national security lens.

3. Douglas Alexander, Minister for Trade Policy, visited Taiwan. Taipei and London signed an enhanced deal covering three economic themes. As I told Nikkei, “economic engagement with Taiwan continues to go from strength to strength, not by coincidence, but through a concerted strategic push by London and Taipei.”

4. Baroness Jenny Chapman, Minister for Development, delivered a speech on sustainable fundraising in Seville.

5. Angela Eagle, Home Office Minister and Simon Ridley, Second Permanent Under-Secretary, met Lieutenant General Pham The Tung, Vietnamese Vice Minister of Public Security, in London to discuss working to prevent and raising awareness about immigration crimes.

6. Fergus Eckersley, Minister Counsellor, delivered a speech at the UN Security Council meeting on the Middle East Peace Process. "The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s operations which are supposed to be saving lives, are themselves leading to mass casualties," he said.

7. The Foreign Office summoned the Georgian Chargé d’Affaires in protest over the Georgian Dreams crackdown on civil society, independent media and critical voices in Georgia.

8. British diplomats returned to London for consultations and meetings, overlapping with the Foreign Secretary's Summer Garden Party.

KenyAI

KEY POINTS:

• President William Ruto, Kenya’s leader, visited London. He held bilateral meetings with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and attended an event to drum up investment. The visit formed part of a wider trip which included Spain.

• Britain and Kenya recently signed a new Kenya-UK Strategic Partnership (2025–30). Rumours last month, picked up first by British Diplomacy Tracker, were that Mr Starmer would soon visit Kenya.

• Military collaboration formed a part of the visit. Defence Secretary John Healey was recently in Kenya as part of a trip to apoligise for British military crimes in the region; a Kenyan inquiry is ongoing into British military behaviour.

This was meant to be a week of celebration for Britain’s Prime Minister. This note arrives in your inbox exactly a year on from Keir Starmer and Labour winning the General Election with a mandate for change and a huge Parliamentary majority.

Instead, Mr Starmer suffered the worst backtrack of his first year in the job on Tuesday, when he was forced to offer punitive concessions on his Welfare Bill thanks to rebelling backbench MPs from his own party. Buffeted by negative commentary and criticism from independent analysts concerned about his fiscal vision, the Prime Minister may have sought some respite a short walk away, as he hosted Kenya’s President, William Ruto, that afternoon.

Perhaps Mr Ruto could have offered a quiet word of support and solidarity. While Britain faces scrutiny from the international bond market, things are looking equally bleak for Kenya. An African Development Bank report published the morning after their bilateral meeting noted that corruption and illicit financial flows cost Kenya as much as $1.5 billion annually. It criticised the country’s elite for state capture, warning the ongoing process of putting political elites in lawmaking and enforcement roles was reducing confidence in the East African nation. Meanwhile, a meme has started to gather weight in Kenya that Mr Ruto promises change but can’t deliver: a concept entirely unfamiliar to British politics.

The crux of the visit came down to renewing the Kenya-UK Strategic Partnership for another five years, with the principal aim of doubling trade between the two nations during that period. Technology and AI formed part of Mr Ruto’s pre-arrival press briefings, and both nations consequently committed to exploring the potential of a bilateral digital trade agreement.

There was discussion of projects such as the Nairobi Railway City, a development that will transform Nairobi’s Central Business District, inspired by London’s Kings Cross. On climate cooperation, the two countries will work together to unlock green finance from public, private, and blended sources. In the British readout, migration was mentioned, with Mr Ruto agreeing to “disrupt organised immigration crime and human trafficking in Kenya to prevent onward migration to Europe.” As a separate readout noted, “Four of the top ten countries for Small Boat arrivals in the UK are near neighbours of Kenya (Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia).”

Mr Ruto’s Twitter account revealed a series of wider meetings: a discussion with the Prince of Wales, a talk with Tony Blair of the Tony Blair Institute, and a visit to the London Stock Exchange. With unfortunate timing, an Economist article published 48 hours later urged Mr Ruto not to stand for re-election, saying “a less tainted successor would have a better chance of getting the reforms Kenya needs.”

On defence, the Government stated that sales worth over £70m were agreed during the visit, and highlighted that Kenya hosts Britain’s most significant military footprint in Africa, including a facility that trains 3,000 UK troops a year. In a conversation with Kenyan radio, Britain’s Deputy High Commissioner, Dr. Ed Barnett, was asked about the controversy surrounding British troops’ behaviour in the country.

On the sidelines of ‘The Africa Debate’ in London, Foreign Secretary David Lammy met Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, which culminatd in a joint statement adding further depth to the wider discussion. During a corresponding Kenya-UK Investment Forum, global health-insurer Bupa, speciality (re)insurer Africa Speciality Risks (ASR) and multilateral lender Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) each signed memoranda of understanding to establish operations under the Nairobi International Financial Centre (NIFC).

Subscribe now

CHART OF THE WEEK

DEFENCE

• A UK Defence Innovation (UKDI) has been established and aims to streamline the delivery of innovative technology to Armed Forces personnel. With a £400 million annual budget, it aims to create high-skilled jobs in the tech sector and drive economic growth.

• A stranded F-35B at Thiruvananthapuram airport in the southern state of Kerala has become an internet sensation.

• Julia Longbottom, Britain’s Ambassador to Japan, has been talking up relations between Portsmouth and Tokyo.

INTELLIGENCE

• The Foreign Influence Registration Scheme came into effect. It is a two-tier scheme: the political tier requires registration of any arrangements to carry out political influence activities in the UK on behalf of a foreign power, including political communications or lobbying senior decision-makers, such as MPs and election candidates. A more stringent enhanced tier applies to foreign powers considered to pose a risk to the UK’s safety or interests - the whole of the Russian and Iranian states have been placed under this tier, after being approved by Parliament. China was kept off the enhanced tier, angering politicians and campaigners alike.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Baroness Chapman, Minister for International Development, Latin America and the Caribbean, welcomed Peruvian Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Felix Denegri, to London and co-chaired the 6th session of the Peru-UK Political Consultations.

• The United Kingdom and Singapore held the 10th UK-Singapore Financial Dialogue in London.

• Ahmad Safadi, the Speaker of the Lower House of Jordan, visited London and held several political meetings.

Share

SANCTIONS

• Britain proscribed three groups: Palestine Action, Maniacs Murder Cult and Russian Imperial Movement. MPs must now vote and agree to the designations, in what is likely to be a highly strung debate.

AI & EMERGING TECH

• The Technology and Energy Secretaries chaired the second meeting of the AI Energy Council. They discussed the potential need to 20x the UK’s compute in the next five years, and how to build energy systems to account for that.

TRADE & BUSINESS

• The UK-US trade deal came into force on Monday, slashing US export tariffs for the UK’s automotive and aerospace sectors.

• IndiGo, one of India’s largest domestic airlines, launched its first direct flight from Mumbai to Manchester.

• Kenya Airways officially launched direct flights from Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport to London Gatwick.

• Indonesia and the UK marked the completion of the first phase of the programme “Towards a Low Carbon Energy Transition in Indonesia” (MENTARI) with a strong commitment to deepen their collaboration on a just and inclusive energy transition.

• A delegation of UK health businesses met with the Ethiopian Food and Drug Authority and the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service.

DIPLOMATS

• Smita Rossetti has been appointed British High Commissioner to the Commonwealth of The Bahamas.

• Kathy Leach has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to the Republic of Latvia.

• The London residence of the Irish Ambassador to the UK is costing the taxpayer €43,500 per month.

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.

Hello,

News reaches British Diplomacy Tracker HQ that Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser, Muhammad Yunus, is scheduled to visit the UK from 9 to 13 June. On his trip, he is due to meet the King and Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Concerningly for Downing Street, Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is briefing local media that Yunis will "raise concerns regarding British-Bangladeshi MP Tulip Siddiq, the niece of Sheikh Hasina."

For those out of the loop on this saga, this note provides a summary of the background and current sticking points. Also on the agenda: an Arctic visit and implications for new trade lanes.

Finally, two last bits of useless trivia BDT dug up in recent transparency documents: Foreign Secretary David Lammy was gifted a £5,000 ceremonial sword by Qatar’s defence minister in April, per recent transparency documents (he sadly wasn’t allowed to keep it.) And Tech Secretary Peter Kyle was taken out for a meal by multi-billionaire OpenAI leader Sam Altman, costing…£30. Happy reading!

— Sam Hogg

Subscribe now

1. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, was warned by the International Monetary Fund that any deviation from her original fiscal commitments could trigger a market backlash.

2. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, became the first Foreign Secretary to travel to one of the Arctic’s northernmost inhabited points when he visited the Archipelago of Svalbard.

3. Dan Jarvis, the Security Minister, became the first Security Minister to visit Colombia and Ecuador. His trip was squarely aimed at "tackl[ing] drug smuggling at source."

4. Maria Eagle, Defence Industry Minister, was in New Zealand. She has been trying to sell British helicopters to the Wellington government.

5. Catherine West, the Indo-Pacific Minister, visited China. Prince Harry was also in the country, at a conference in Shanghai.

6. Lord Collins, Africa Minister, visited Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire.

7. Lord Coaker, Defence Minister, visited Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

8. Peter Mandelson, Ambassador to the United States, used a speech at the Atlantic Council to again urge for closer ties on AI and technology.

9. Shein, the Chinese e-commerce giant, has reportedly pulled plans to list on the London Stock Exchange. The news is a blow for the Government, who wanted a ‘win’ for the struggling LSE, but a victory for China hawks and human rights activists, who have argued the firm profits from slave labour in supply chains connected to Xinjiang in China’s west.

10. The Strategic Defence Review will be published on Monday. It’s expected to include increased investment in vague AI and cyber initiatives.

1. Brrrrrrr

KEY POINTS:

• The High North is a region loosely covering the Arctic Circle, sitting to the north of Britain. It has increasing strategic value thanks to climate change, but also emerging threats

• Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Svalbard, Iceland and Norway to launch a new national security focused AI initiative alongside Iceland, and announced further sanctions on Russian ships. Rumours circulated that a Defence Secretary trip may soon follow.

• The region will become busier as ice melts and new trading paths emerge. Some in Whitehall have called for the Government to commission new icebreakers in the upcoming Strategic Defence Review: the singular vessel Britain currently has is old

The Arctic has seen a sustained increase in attention from Westminster as of late. Given the context - the first major European conflict on the continent in half a century, an increasingly bellicose Moscow sowing concern among northern neighbours and eyeing the retreating ice, abundance of critical minerals locked beneath the sea - this is unsurprising. British attention reached a new level this week with Foreign Secretary David Lammy visiting Svalbard, an archipelago at the meeting point of the Arctic and Atlantic oceans.

Mr Lammy’s visit saw a couple of notable announcements. The first involved artificial intelligence, with the launch of a vague “new UK-Iceland scheme to use cutting edge AI technology to monitor hostile activity in the region.” There was mention of undersea cables and similar technologies, and briefed media added that “the UK has committed £554,000 for the Alan Turing Institute, with Icelandic support, to explore how AI could improve monitoring capabilities and ability to detect possible hostile activity.”

The second involved the British Government sanctioning a Russian tugboat thousands of miles away in the Mediterranean. Why? Vengery was scheduled to tow a newly built floating repair dock from Turkey to Murmansk. The dock, essential for maintaining Russia’s newest nuclear-powered icebreakers (Project 22220), is now stranded in the Med. Project 22220 is the designation for Russia’s latest class of nuclear-powered icebreakers, built to maintain year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) - a key Arctic shipping lane that Moscow is increasingly relying on to export oil, LNG, and other commodities, especially under Western sanctions. This means Russia has no Arctic-based floating dry dock capable of servicing Project 22220 vessels.

In isolation, these movements appear disjointed or sporadic. But as noted in previous Telegrams, it’s time for more in Westminster - and the City - to focus on the ‘High North’. Estimates from within the Ministry of Defence on the potential reduction in trade routes thanks to global warming are remarkable (back of the packet maths below), and will have ramifications for other critical chokepoints in the global supply chain system. In a document shared publicly last year, its analysts reported "these routes could be 30–50% shorter than the Suez and Panama Canal routes, reducing transit time by an estimated 14–20 days." Scientific interest in critical minerals and fish stocks, often a precursor for more aggressive commercial activity, has spiked in the region. As noted in a personal essay on the need for an anti-illegal fishing company, warming waters are set to change fishing migration patterns, which in turn may lead to more state-on-state conflict.

The upcoming Strategic Defence Review will focus in part on trying to mitigate the risks presented by Arctic thawing, but one marker of how seriously the Government assesses the threat will be whether it commissions new icebreakers. To this end, Finland is a world leader, producing them at half the cost of its nearest competitor.

Subscribe now

CHART OF THE WEEK

2. LESS TALK, MORE ACTION

• Having overthrown the previous regime, the new Bangladeshi government is trying to claw back capital it believes was extracted illegaly. One of those accused of vaguely laundering funds is British Labour MP Tulip Siddiq.

• The British High Commission has offered help, but alongside other international partners, is growing frustrated with Bangladesh’s lack of concise evidence and key documentation in the process. In a private briefing last month, they chastised the task force assembled to carry out the investigations.

• Bangladesh’s key adviser visits the UK next month, and will likely raise the case of Ms Siddiq in meetings with the Prime Minister, much of which may find its way into the papers via leaks

British Diplomacy Tracker readers of old may recall a briefing note from the beginning of December 2024 in which advice was dispensed to “Keep a close eye on Bangladesh.” In the interim six months, Tulip Siddiq, a British MP and former Minister, has been charged by the new Bangladeshi authorities, alleging her involvement in corruption linked to the regime of her aunt, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Ms Siddiq resigned as Economic Secretary to the Treasury in January 2025, and denies all allegations, labelling them as politically motivated and baseless. Her lawyers assert that the Bangladeshi authorities have not provided any direct evidence or formally questioned her, and they have challenged the legitimacy of the arrest warrant.

The British High Commission has played a crucial role in offering to help the new administration recover funds siphoned off under the previous regime. But it has grown frustrated. At a gathering in the residence last month attended by representatives of the US, Singapore, Switzerland, the European Union, and Canada, those gathered lambasted Bangladesh’s asset recovery task force. Their criticism, leaked to local media, is threefold: loose timelines, lack of urgency, and poor documentation. The last point is particularly critical in building a case, particularly when those accused counter that they are in the crosshairs thanks to partisan politics. To this end, Bangladeshi media reported the diplomats told their counterparts in the government “that no substantial information had been provided to build a case for an international court, with Bangladeshi officials involved in the task force failing to supply adequate details on any specific case.”

This issue will rear its head imminently, as Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus is scheduled to visit the UK from 9 to 13 June per local media, “where he is expected to meet King Charles and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, according to the Foreign Ministry. Governor Mansur will accompany him as part of the delegation.” The Government sees Bangladesh as a frontier emerging market, but concerns about regulatory unpredictability, corruption, and infrastructure gaps limit scale. Despite this, the 500,000-strong Bangladeshi diaspora in the UK plays an important cultural and economic role in the wider bilateral relationship - the UK is one of the top five sources of remittances to Bangladesh.

DEFENCE

• Britain, the US, France and Germany lifted range limits on weapons supplied to Ukraine, letting Kyiv hit targets deep inside Russia. UK Storm Shadow missiles could now reach Moscow’s outskirts.

• Lord Coaker, Defence Minister, is attending the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore.

• Admiral Sir Tony Radakin KCB ADC met with Chiefs from the Five Power Defence Arrangement countries - Australia, Malaysia, Singapore & New Zealand.

INTELLIGENCE

• MI5 probed arson attacks on Mr Starmer’s homes. The security service is examining alleged Russian links to three fire-bomb incidents targeting the PM’s properties. Two Ukrainians and a Romanian have been charged.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, warned that Britain’s apparent insistence on "zero enrichment" in Iran renders further dialogue on the nuclear issue futile.

• The second UK-Maldives Strategic Dialogue 2025 took place, with a focus on environmental issues among other key areas.

• Ambassador Hamish Cowell toured Lebanon’s eastern border to inspect UK-funded border-security kit.

• The Cyprus Forum London returned for a second year, hosted at the High Commission of Cyprus in the United Kingdom and co-organised by Oxygen for Democracy in collaboration with the High Commission. Victoria Billing, Director for Europe at the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, was in attendance.

Share

SANCTIONS

• More than 800 British lawyers (including ex-Supreme Court justices) wrote to the Prime Minister to state Britain must sanction Israeli ministers to meet its legal duties under the Genocide Convention.

• Britain sanctioned Vengery, a Russian tugboat that was scheduled to tow a newly built floating repair dock from Turkey to Murmansk. The dock, essential for maintaining Russia’s newest nuclear-powered icebreakers (Project 22220), is now stranded in the Mediterranean.

AI & EMERGING TECH

• The upcoming Strategic Defence Review will have a strong AI focus

TRADE & BUSINESS

• Fabian Hamilton, UK Trade Envoy for the Southern Cone, visited Paraguay and met with Paraguayan authorities and stakeholders to explore new partnership opportunities in sectors including trade, investment, sports, clean energy, and sustainable development.

• Ambassador Irfan Siddiq met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani to discuss the recently announced £12bn partnership.

DIPLOMATS

• Helena Owen has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to the Republic of Chad.

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.

Hello from lovely Oxford,

Travel may broaden the mind, but it limits time. This week’s Telegram takes the form of a bulletin: briefer than usual, but no less pointed. As ever, it focuses on developments slipping beneath the radar of Westminster and Fleet Street. You will find no further analysis of the Chagos Islands (previous issues have covered that ground) and no commentary on the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict.

Instead, I examine two economic engagements that speak to Britain’s evolving international posture: one with East African states, the other with South Korea on reconstruction in Ukraine. Both reflect the government’s ambition to project influence through infrastructure, trade finance and strategic partnerships, where traditional diplomacy gives way to geoeconomic tools.

I have used these Telegrams, which go into the inboxes of some influential people - advisers, policy shapers, FTSE leaders - to try and draw awareness around the intersection of AI, economics and geopolitics. This week has seen another significant moment, with the release of a new model from a firm called Anthropic.

I would urge you to read this brief analysis of the model’s capabilities and ask: how will this affect my prime minister, my board, my budget, or my country’s place in the world? Even walking through the cobbled streets in a place as timeless as Oxford, you realise the future is fast upon us.

— Sam Hogg

Subscribe now

East Africa Trade & Ukraine

KEY POINTS:

• The UK hosted the first-ever East Africa Trade and Investment Forum (EATIF), bringing together governments and businesses from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

• British International Investment (BII) and Standard Chartered announced a $100 million trade finance facility to support cross-border trade in Kenya and Tanzania. It confirmed a $5 million investment to support the rollout of 5,000 electric motorbikes and battery-swapping infrastructure in Kenya, expected to reduce annual CO₂ emissions by over 100,000 metric tonnes.

• Britain signed an MoU with South Korea to work together on projects in Ukraine. It’s efforts to replicate the ‘Third Country Cooperation’ model, pioneered by Japan, could see further applications in countries beyond Ukraine.

A flurry of strategies and reviews are expected to land on desks in Westminster over the next month. Some of these, such as the China Audit and Strategic Defence Review, have received ample media coverage, political punditry and Westminster speculation, and will probably end up being largely damp squibs. In a quiet corner of Whitehall, yet another is being drawn up: the UK’s ‘Africa Reset’ approach, commissioned by Foreign Secretary David Lammy early into his arrival.

Efforts to compile views from across the continent, via diplomats, private sector, NGOs and other stakeholders have been underway for months. And while the document may never have a public component, Britain’s foreign, trade and security approaches to the region continue. The premier East Africa Trade and Investment Forum (EATIF) should be viewed through this lens. An effort to de-risk trade (via $100M finance facility with the Foreign Office’s investment arm, BII, and Standard Chartered) and greening mobility (via $5M investment in e-motorbikes and battery-swapping infrastructure), it reflects an attempt to leverage science, technology, and private sector investment to assert long-term geopolitical influence.

The summit attracted a relatively senior political turnout. Lord Collins, the UK Government’s Minister for Africa, represented Britain; other attendees included Abubakar Hassan Abubakar, Principal Secretary State Department for Investment Promotion, Kenya, and the CEO of the Kenya Investment Authority (KenInvest), John Mwendwa; General Wamala, Minister for Works and Transport in Uganda; and Msafiri Lameck Mbibo, Deputy Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Minerals in Tanzania.

The forum is best read not in isolation but as part of a broader effort to reassert British presence in a region where China has long been dominant. Between 2000 and 2022, Beijing extended over $170bn in loans to African governments, dwarfing UK bilateral aid or commercial finance by orders of magnitude. London, lacking the financial firepower of its Chinese counterpart, is instead seeking out narrow bands of competitive advantage: digital regulation, climate finance, and frontier tech partnerships. It’s also worth noting that the average interest rate on Chinese development loans in Africa is 3.2%, versus the BII’s at 2%.

Kenya, as noted in previous Telegrams, has emerged as a pilot country for UK-backed AI and data governance collaboration. Electric vehicles and climate adaptation are additional vectors. Whether these initiatives add up to a coherent strategy remains unclear, but they hint at an approach that blends commercial alignment, green industrial policy, and geopolitical signalling.

Share

Meanwhile, Britain is looking beyond Africa for diplomatic leverage. This week, it signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with South Korea to cooperate on reconstruction in Ukraine and infrastructure projects in third countries. Known in development jargon as "third-country cooperation", this model has long been championed by Japan, whose JICA-led schemes combine capital, contractors and governance standards in joint ventures with allies.

Under the new UK-Korea MoU, Seoul is expected to contribute engineering know-how and cost-effective project delivery, while London supplies advisory services and finance via institutions such as UK Export Finance. Areas of potential investment which shrewd city folk should observe range from smart cities and modular healthcare to water infrastructure and transport corridors. The partnership fits within a wider pattern. Since the 2023 Downing Street Accord, UK-Korea ties have deepened significantly, driven in part by mutual wariness of Chinese coercion and the volatility of American politics. Such third-country platforms could become a recurring feature of Britain’s post-Brexit economic diplomacy, particularly where bilateral heft is lacking.

Whether this amounts to a new era in British geoeconomic statecraft or simply the latest iteration of policy theatre will depend, as ever, not on the launch but the execution.

Subscribe now

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.

Hello,

In ‘Thinking Fast and Slow’, the late psychologist Daniel Kahneman discussed an experiment to test logical thinking, using two premises and a conclusion. Try and answer the following:

All roses are flowers.

Some flowers fade quickly.

Therefore some roses fade quickly.

Is this conclusion correct?

The answer is no, yet Mr Kahneman reported “a large majority of college students endorse this syllogism as valid.” This, he continued, “has discouraging implications for reasoning in everyday life [because] it suggests that when people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when those arguments are unsound.”

This week’s Telegram focuses primarily on migration, an issue for which many form a conclusion and work back from there. The issue is worth examining as it follows a major speech from the Prime Minister and an accompanying White Paper, and Britain’s migration posture sits upstream of many important decisions Downing Street will make on its foreign, trade, and domestic policy choices. For example, as my Telegram from March noted, the promotion of the UK’s popular former Ambassador to the US, Karen Pierce, to a Special Envoy role in the Western Balkans was aimed squarely at tackling illegal immigration and smuggling gangs. Despite this, Downing Street’s immigration policy and aim is poorly understood and emotion-inducing for many, viewed too often through just a domestic lens.

It’s also important to understand the speech and paper in light of what British Diplomacy Tracker aims to do, and the analysis which follows is neither a rejection nor an endorsement. From its genesis, an effort has been made to draw together the series of competing threads that underpin Labour’s general approach to foreign, industrial and domestic strategy. In the simplest summary, the aim is GROWTH and RE-ELECTION: the latter being tied closely to the former, but both of which impact how the Government projects itself into the world.

• On GROWTH, Downing Street has rolled out several new actions, including ploughing through decades-old legislation around planning and energy, seeking pragmatic trade agreements, and reforming the defence procurement pipeline to create new jobs in various constituencies. The aim here is to “put more money in the pockets of working people.” Labour’s self-imposed fiscal headroom has taken a beating, so it remains to be seen how effectively their economic approach pans out over the coming years. Immigration, in Downing Street’s view, has not helped economic growth.

• On RE-ELECTION - tied heavily to GROWTH - No10 has a fearful eye on Reform, the right-wing party led by Nigel Farage, currently polling above both Labour and the Conservatives. Some will argue that this week’s speech and White Paper were just an attempt to pull the rug from under Reform: that would be a poor read and fails to account for a deeper movement at play in Westminster and the circles of influential movers in SW1. The linking of high immigration to deflated wages and poor economic performance is an effort to dovetail themes from both the re-election and growth buckets into one coherent narrative.

Elsewhere in today’s note: a slew of new Ambassadors, a visit to London from an African nation’s VP, and an on/off possibility that the Prime Minister will visit Kenya soon.

— Sam Hogg

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, announced major updates to immigration rules. The Prime Minister visited Albania on a trip aimed at tackling the roots of illegal immigration.

2. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, hosted the Weimar+ ministerial meeting in London. The group issued a statement on Ukraine. Mr Lammy then attended the NATO informal Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Antalya, Turkey.

3. John Healey, the Defence Secretary, closed trading at the London Stock Exchange as part of a concerted campaign to get more financial support and interest in Defence. Mr Healey then travelled to Germany to announce a new weapons collaboration.

4. Jonathan Reynolds, the Trade Secretary, met Todd McClay, Minister for Trade and Investment of New Zealand, in London.

5. General Sir Gwyn Jenkins was appointed First Sea Lord. The announcement came as Mr Jenkins was embroiled in allegations of covering up SAS and SBS murders abroad.

6. Ndaba Gaolathe, Botswana’s Vice-President, visited the UK. Kenyan media reported Mr Starmer was set to visit the country, but the High Commission denied the claim.

7. The Chinese Government expressed displeasure at the recent UK-USA economic agreement. “Co-operation between states should not be conducted against or to the detriment of the interests of third parties,” China’s foreign ministry told the Financial Times.

8. Ministers and representatives of Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United Kingdom and Vietnam, as parties to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), met in Jeju, the Republic of Korea, releasing a statement.

9. Royal College of Defence Studies met with counterparts in Lagos, Nigeria.

10. The Arctic Council, in which Britain has observer status, held its fourteenth meeting, concluding Norway’s chairship, which passed to Denmark. Stockholm has five overarching priorities for the next two years: indigenous peoples and communities in the Arctic; sustainable economic development and energy transition solutions; oceans; Arctic climate change; and biodiversity.

1. Immigration

KEY POINTS:

• Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his Government would be seeking to signficnaltly reduce the number of immigrants arriving into Britain. The Government published a White Paper alongside a speech in Downing Street

• The Prime Minister explicitly argued that high levels of immigration had not increased overall productivty or economic output, but had instead depreciated and depressed wages and employment opportunities

• Mr Starmer visited Albania to close out the week, on a trip billed as “clamp[ing] down on criminal networks in [the] Western Balkans”

In every British election since 1992, the winning political party of the day has promised to tighten migration controls. On Monday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer set out his vision.

Mr Starmer sought to paint the preceding Conservative governments’ approach to migration as out of control, with hundreds of thousands of new people arriving in Britain each year, and pledged to dramatically reduce the number of people entering Britain. On the sheer balance of numbers, Mr Starmer is correct.

This is thanks in no small part to the ‘dependent’ offering for health and care visas, which allowed arrivals to bring their “spouse or partner, fiancé, fiancée or proposed civil partner, child, parent, or relative who will provide long-term care.” Per the data, between 2021 and 2023, 55% (315,000) of visas issued to Health and Care workers were to dependents. As of December 2024, there were approximately three dependents for each person coming to do a job in health and social care. For a view from across the aisle, Conservative MP Neil O’Brien has done some data crunching previously, focusing on student visas, which have boomed at lower-tier universities.

Of the 71,046 health and care worker visas granted in 2023-24:,15,076 (21%) were for Indian nationals; with the next most common countries being Nigeria (13,418 or 19%); Zimbabwe (10,702 or 15%); Ghana (8,826 or 12%); and Bangladesh (7,097 or 10%). From that point of view, the reaction of the media and officials from those countries is worth being aware of:

• In Nigeria, the British High Commission was forced to issue a statement: “The UK enjoys strong, long-standing people-to-people links with Nigeria. We are proud that the UK is still considered a top destination for Nigerians to work, study, visit and settle – and value the contribution this brings to the UK.” Nigerians placed highly in the number of Social Care visas handed out over the last five years. Additionally, the UK currently processes roughly 1,500 visa applications daily from Nigeria.

• In Kenya, the British High Commission was forced to issue a statement: “Yesterday, the UK Prime Minister launched an immigration white paper, setting out the government’s intention to make changes to our immigration system. These have not yet been implemented. There are no country specific measures and reporting about the termination of a UK-Kenya migration deal are inaccurate – no such deal exists.”

• In Ghana, the media covered the news, warning that it would impact their citizens. Some called it “draconian.”

• In India, the media interviewed experts, who tended to focus on the graduate scheme options. Some ran quotes from the Indian diaspora in the UK, while others focused on the knock-on impact for young Indians.

Yet despite this immigration wave, per the Government’s White Paper, “evidence suggests inflows of lower-skilled migrants are more likely to distort the labour market – which is precisely why the balance and mix of migration is so crucial. Whilst there are currently record levels of migrant workers filling shortages in the UK labour market, the figure below shows that 6 out of the 10 sectors seeing this highest change in payrolled employments of non-EU nationals have been correlated with declines in UK employment over the period.”

In the foreword to the paper, Mr Starmer stated that immigration since 2019 has led to “Public services and housing…placed under too much pressure. Our economy has been distorted by perverse incentives to import workers rather than invest in our own skills. In sectors like engineering, for example, apprenticeships have almost halved while visas doubled.” His words caused some anger in Westminster, although polling from YouGov found the majority of Brits agreed with his rhetoric.

This issue will likely continue to simmer as a diplomatic knot that Ambassadors and High Commissioners will have to contend with on their brief for years to come. One area that attention may turn to next is a breakdown of which nationalities are currently claiming benefits or social housing in the UK - a point raised (and tweeted, racking up over 1.4 million views so far) by influential Conservative MP Nick Timothy in Parliament.

Share

To take the migration conversation international, Mr Starmer visited Albania at the end of the week. Gangs and criminals from the country play a critical role in facilitating illegal smuggling and related crimes, and the Prime Minister used his trip to announce the expansion of the Joint Migration Task Force with Albania and Kosovo to include North Macedonia. Downing Street is hoping its upcoming Western Balkans Summit, in the Autumn, will be instrumental in cementing wider international attention on this issue.

As part of an enhanced strategic partnership with Albania, the Prime Minister and Albania’s Prime Minister Edi Rama also announced:

• Both nations will deepen cooperation to combat people smuggling, support trafficking victims, and prevent repeat illegal migration by deported Albanians.

• A new joint initiative will target illicit finance and underground money laundering between the UK and Albania.

• The UK will donate two forgery detection machines to Albania’s State Police to help detect fake or stolen passports.

• A reintegration programme will be launched in northern Albania to help returned migrants find work and reduce repeat migration.

• Both countries will increase efforts to tackle serious organised crime, including a new DNA-sharing programme to track criminals. This forensic cooperation has already led to over 1,000 database matches and 55 arrests of serious criminals in the UK.

• The UK will invest an additional £1 million to improve Albania’s forensic, biometric and digital crime-fighting capabilities.

The Prime Minister finished the week at a conference in Albania, where he warned Russia that a new slew of sanctions would arrive on energy assets if Moscow refused to engage in peace talks sincerely. Mr Starmer was set to host a security roundtable with the Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf Kristersson, as well as key partners including France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Ukraine.

Subscribe now

CHART OF THE WEEK

Chinese tourism numbers have yet to return to their pre-pandemic heights. By 2050, 1 in 3 Chinese citizens and 1 in 4 Brits will be over 65 years old.

2. African diplomacy

• Ndaba Gaolathe, Botswana’s Vice-President, visited the UK. He met with Lord Collins, the UK’s Africa Minister.

• British Diplomacy Tracker scooped that Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to visit Kenya. His trip would follow recent visits from Defence Secretary John Healey and other high level officials. The British High Commission in Nairobi denied a visit is on the cards

Botswana, the landlocked African nation of around two and a half million people, is going through a rough patch. Its economy contracted by 3.0% in 2024, primarily due to a sharp decline in global demand for rough diamonds, which constitute over 70% of the country's exports and about a quarter of its GDP. The government is eyeing cuts to public services, and the budget deficit looks set to widen.

This is the grim macro environment that set the scene for Vice President Ndaba Gaolethe’s visit to London. A meeting with Lord Collins, the Minister for Africa, yielded few public details - “a keen focus on trade, investment and renewable energy” tweeted the peer - a theme that continued throughout the visit. The UK’s trade with Botswana is limited but growing in the low millions a year, primarily fuelled by British exports to the country.

Moving north, British Diplomacy Tracker was the first outlet in Westminster to pick up claims by Kenyan media that Prime Minister Keir Starmer would be visiting the nation imminently. Reports stated Dr. Raymond Omollo, Kenya’s Principal Secretary for Internal Security and National Administration, confirmed the visit following a meeting with British High Commissioner Neil Wigan in Nairobi - soon denied by Downing Street.

Per the media reporting, immigration is set to be a potential area of focus if the trip does go ahead, alongside strengthening cybersecurity cooperation and advancing police reforms. As noted in previous Telegrams, Kenya is currently running an inquiry into allegations of illegality by British troops stationed in the country; Defence Secretary John Healey recently visited to make amends for one particularly horrible crime.

Share

Noted

The Government has recently intervened three times under the National Security and Investment Act regarding foreign-led efforts to take over critical companies. All have been allowed to go through, with conditions.

DEFENCE

• John Healey, the Defence Secretary, became the first person in his position to close trading at the London Stock Exchange.

• Britain and Germany confirmed for the first time that they will work together to develop a new long-range strike capability with a range of over 2,000 km.

• Andrew Burns CB OBE, Vice Admiral and Fleet Commander of the Royal Navy, attended the launch of defence firm Helsing’s maritime partnership with several other companies.

• Sheikh Saud bin Saqr Al Qasimi, Supreme Council Member and Ruler of Ras Al Khaimah, received a high-level delegation from the UK’s Royal College of Defence Studies, led by Philip Parham, Director at the College and former UK Ambassador to the UAE.

INTELLIGENCE

• Barbara Woodward, the former Ambassador to China, is being considered to run MI6.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, welcomed the Prime Minister of Sweden Ulf Kristersson, spoke to the Taoiseach Micheál Martin, and Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney.

• David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, met with Kaja Kallis, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

• Hamish Falconer, Minister for the Middle East and North Africa, spoke to his Saudi counterpart.

• Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s former President, visited the British Parliament.

Share

SANCTIONS

• The Government released a cross-department review of sanctions implementation and enforcement.

• Throughout 2024, the majority of export control refusals continued to be for licences to China. The majority were related to the new military end-use controls and the addition of China to the list of destinations subject to the military end-use control.

AI & EMERGING TECH

• The UAE and Saudi Arabia signed massive AI deals with the US and its leading AI firms.

• Peter Mandelson, Ambassador to the UK, met with Illinois’ governor to discuss quantum, among other technology opportunities.

• The UK Quantum Skills Taskforce published its report.

• Collin Crooks, Ambassador in South Korea, wrote for local media that "both the US and India recognised the UK as a trustworthy negotiating partner with a strong economic foundation and a world-leading innovation economy- especially in emerging fields like [AI]."

• The Government announced a use-case for Humphrey, its AI system aimed at helping civil servants get through huge amounts of literature.

• Brian Jones, High Commissioner to Fiji, was involved in a day-long event training Fijian journalists about the use of AI in their content and industry.

DOMESTIC AND DIASPORA

• Julius Malema, the firey leader of South Africa’s opposition Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party, was denied entry to the UK. “I was supposed to get there in London to meet with students, as I was invited by Cambridge University, but the white people denied me entry to London, saying they wouldn’t give me a visa…They denied me a visa because I can’t be bought. I can’t be bought by imperialism and colonialism. I don’t beat around the bush; I speak the truth, whether you like it or not,” he said at a gathering.

• British police charged Kyaw Zwar Minn, Myanmar's former ambassador to the United Kingdom, with trespassing on a diplomatic residence in London that he has refused to leave since being ousted for opposing Myanmar's 2021 military coup.

• At a Parliamentary event (attended by Jeremy Corbyn MP among others), Sudan’s Ambassador Babikir Elamin accused the UAE of fuelling the war in his country by proxy.

• Some Nigerians staged a protest at the Nigerian High Commission and the Home Office on Monday, demanding the deportation of former NNPCL boss Mele Kyari to face a corruption investigation.

TRADE & BUSINESS

• South Korea and Britain’s Free Trade Agreement negotiations are nearing an end, per an article in Korean media.

• India’s Gurgaon-based ReNew Energy Global Plc has secured Rs 8.7 billion from British International Investment (BII), marking BII’s first investment in India’s solar manufacturing sector.

DIPLOMATS

• Peter Wilson CMG has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to China. His father, David Wilson, was the penultimate Commander-in-Chief and 27th Governor of Hong Kong.

• Dame Melinda Simmons DCMG has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to the Republic of Poland.

• Colin Martin-Reynolds CMG has been appointed Governor of the Falkland Islands and His Majesty’s Commissioner for South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands.

• Kanbar Hossein-Bor has been appointed British High Commissioner to the Republic of Fiji. He makes history as the first refugee to be appointed to a High Commissioner role.

• Qudsi Rasheed OBE has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to the State of Kuwait.

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.

Hello,

Did you know that in 2022, the weight of fish caught illegally on the high seas was equivalent to three million male African elephants? That this black market is worth between $10 and $23.5 billion annually, comparable to the entire GDP of a dozen African nations, many of which are among the hardest hit?

Well, I do! I’ve been mulling it over for some months, and as part of my ongoing series of provocative ideas, I’ve put together a company pitch to bring it to an end and outlined why I believe the British Government should take a strong interest.

Introducing FISH, INC., the lurker in the deep.

Sam Hogg

It's time for FISH, INC.

These essays are meant to be provocative, and based on both a red team principle and my love of the Oyster Club. It is my aim to stress test Westminster concepts, learn from the feedback I receive, and introduce new ideas occasionally. I try and write them in a conversational manner…

Read more

a year ago · 3 likes · 4 comments · Sam Hogg

— Sam Hogg

Subscribe now

1. Britain celebrated the 80th anniversary of V.E. Day.

2. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, signed two trade agreements, one with India, and one with the United States. Mr Starmer also delivered a standard speech on Britain’s defence posture, and visited Oslo for a meeting with the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).

3. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, visited Poland to attend a meeting with EU Foreign Ministers, before travelling on to the Balkans and Ukraine.

4. John Healey, the Defence Secretary, delivered a speech on defence posture.

5. Pat McFadden, the Duchy of Lancaster, delivered a speech on cyber and artificial intelligence. He announced Britain would send financial aid to help both Moldova and Ukraine fend off Russian interference in cyber matters.

6. Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, visited Oslo. Britain and Norway signed a Green Industrial Partnership.

7. Nick Thomas-Symonds, Minister for European Union Relations, met with Ministers from Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man today to discuss the new strategic partnership the UK is building with the EU.

8. Daniel Noboa, the Ecuadorian President, visited London. The only media coverage was of his wife, an influencer, meeting King Charles III.

9. The British Government mulled over plans to limit the amount of time and conditions applied to certain immigrants in the country. A white paper on immigration is due next week. Media reported it would target citizens of Nigeria, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka and make it harder for them to obtain visas, citing high rates of overstays and subsequent asylum claims.

10. The British Government monitored ongoing protests between the Indian and Pakistani diaspora in London, and called for de-escalation in Parliament.

1. Trade baby trade

KEY POINTS:

• Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed new trade agreements with India and the United States

• The deal with India has been years in the works, and is a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). It is not without controversy, particularly on points around Indian workers not paying National Insurance Contributions (NICS)

• The framework deal with the United States appears primarly around tariff reductions, and is not legally binding. The full text has yet to be published, but indicates a notable focus on bilateral attention towards China on issues including unfair subsidies and export control discussions

The Downing Street maths is simple: Things that are good for the UK = better national security + richer country + better chance of being reelected + more money to put into the NHS and other bits. Things that damage the UK = tariffs + a trade war + domestic issues like job losses. In short: Britain needs to get its economy growing. To this end, Prime Minister Keir Starmer sealed the deal on two distinct trade agreements this week, with further details to come in the following months.

The first was with India. This FTA marks Britain’s most commercially significant post-Brexit trade accord. Valued at £25.5bn in annual bilateral trade gains and projected to boost UK GDP by £4.8bn a year in the long run, the deal sets out to deliver comprehensive tariff reductions across 90% of tariff lines, including sharp cuts on UK whisky, gin, cars and medical devices. Indian exports, such as garments, jewellery and frozen prawns, gain near-total duty-free access to the UK. The agreement also secures a three-year exemption from double social security contributions for short-term workers, while sidestepping broader visa liberalisation. In normal talk, that means the Government does not have to grant more visas to Indian workers (a point of contention during the negotiations and which would have caused significant upset in Westminster), but gets heat for Indian workers ducking NICS.

Beyond goods, the FTA grants British firms unprecedented access to India’s sprawling public procurement market, estimated at £38bn annually, and introduces robust protections for intellectual property, marking India’s first such commitments in a trade deal. Financial and professional services firms benefit from binding investment terms and a framework for mutual recognition of qualifications, while digital exporters gain guarantees on cross-border data flows, source code protections and e-commerce facilitation. The agreement also introduces modern disciplines on competition, technical standards, customs and trade facilitation, aiming to reduce frictions for UK SMEs navigating India’s high-barrier, high-growth market - good news for companies such as Vodafone, which has suffered at the hands of this unorthodox market.

Politically, the deal is framed as a clear trade win by both sides. In reality, it is also a strategic hedge: deepening ties with a rising economic superpower amid geopolitical shifts and trade tensions with the US and EU. Notably, it secures India’s first FTA chapters on anti-corruption, labour rights, gender equality and the environment, potentially suggesting New Delhi’s gradual convergence with global regulatory norms. Yet limits remain: legal services are excluded, and talks on a bilateral investment treaty continue.

Two days later, President Donald Trump and Mr Starmer had a televised video call to announce their trade breakthrough. The UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD) has a different focus, is a sectoral trade arrangement designed to remove tariffs in key industries, and is not legally binding at this stage. However, some of its provisions are already operative and carry significant implications for British industrial policy, transatlantic regulatory cooperation, and geopolitical alignment.

It’s worth unpacking some of the raw detail: the agreement cuts US import tariffs on UK vehicles from 27.5% to 10% for up to 100,000 cars annually, aligning with existing export volumes. The UK will benefit from the removal of US steel and aluminium tariffs previously set at 25% - a point both the Prime Minister and Trade Secretary emphasised at length - although access is capped under a new quota regime. Reciprocal quotas on beef, set at 13,000 metric tonnes, have been agreed without relaxing UK food safety standards. The UK eliminates its 20% tariff on US ethanol, granting a duty-free quota of 1.4 billion litres. Preferential pharmaceutical access remains under negotiation, with both sides signalling intent to reduce barriers in this high-value sector.

On non-tariff measures, there is no change to the UK’s Digital Services Tax, but both countries have committed to negotiating a digital trade agreement to streamline cross-border services. The deal also sets a precedent for UK exemption from future US Section 232 tariffs, conditional on supply chain security and national security cooperation. That’s particularly worth noting given that the document discusses economic security at length, including that both nations “intend to cooperate on the effective use of investment security measures, export controls, and ICT vendor security, building on the current levels of close alignment on trade and investment security measures.” Some British commentators described this as Mr Starmer handing Mr Trump a “veto” over Chinese investment, but that appears to be a stretch given the non-binding nature of the agreement. Additionally, there was talk of further cooperation on many emerging tech and AI issues, a particular interest area for Britain’s Ambassador Peter Mandelson (who proved instrumental in getting this agreement over the line.)

Strategically, the deal serves as a calming movement. It is not a comprehensive free trade agreement: it lacks full services liberalisation, intellectual property provisions and full tariff rollback. And the UK retains regulatory autonomy on agri-food imports, explicitly rejecting US pressure to lift bans on hormone-treated beef. The deal's binding components are limited and politically contingent, but it opens a durable channel for targeted economic integration under a securitised trade model.

Share

2. Welcome to the ‘New Ecuador’

• Daniel Noboa, the President of Ecuador, visited Britain. He was met with almost no media coverage, and didn’t hold a meeting with Prime Minister Keir Starme, although he did meet King Charles III

• Mr Naboa delivered the Canning Lecture at Canning House, and met various companies, touting potential investment opportunties in ‘New Ecuador’

• His first meeting was with Palantir’s Vice President in the UK

Fresh from his recent election victory, Ecuador’s President, Daniel Noboa, arrived in London. Accompanied by seven ministers and high-level officials, the heir to a banana fortune used his trip to deliver an investment-focused pitch at Canning House, and to meet British businesses, urging them to explore his patch. Mr Noboa’s ‘New Ecuador’ initiative, pitched during meetings in London, is a broad political and economic strategy aimed at revitalising the national economy, restoring public order, and attracting international investment. Mining is a significant part of the offer.

As a recent Economist report noted, “murders [in Ecuador] fell from 45 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 39 last year, the numbers in January and February were the highest on record.” This may go some way to explaining why Mr Noboa’s first meeting in London was with Josh Harris, VP of the (controversial) intelligence-defence-tech-AI firm Palantir. The President’s account tweeted the firm was "a key ally in the use of technology to combat smuggling, customs fraud and strengthen institutional security." Bilaterally, trade between Ecuador and Britain continues to grow, increasing 8% or so last year, primarily driven by foodstuffs and consumables such as fish.

DEFENCE

• First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir Ben Key, has stepped down as head of the Royal Navy.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, visited Bosnia and Herzegovina. He also met Caspar Veldkamp, the Dutch Minister for Foreign Affairs.

• Harriet Mathews, Director General of Africa and the Americas, visited Somalia. She met Deputy Prime Minister Salah Jama.

• Rachel Kyte, Special Representative for Climate, visited Hanoi to champion the UK-Vietnam climate and energy partnership.

• Julius Malema, the controversial leader of South Africa's opposition party, says he has been denied a visa to attend a conference in the UK on 10 May.

• Lord Collins, Minister for Africa, spoke to Angolan Foreign Minister Téte António.

Noted

SANCTIONS

• Britain sanctioned around 100 oil tankers “that form a core part of Putin’s shadow fleet operation and are responsible for carrying more than $24 billion worth of cargo since the start of 2024.”

DOMESTIC AND DIASPORA

• In one of the largest counter-state threat and counter terrorism actions seen in recent times, several Iranian citizens were arrested in the UK.

• The British Government released several updates concerning the ongoing situation between India and Pakistan.

TRADE & BUSINESS

• The UK Angola Trade Business Forum took place in Angola, and focused on the Lobito Corridor, infrastructure, agriculture and finance.

DIPLOMATS

• Kara Owen has been appointed His Majesty's Ambassador to Ireland.

• Bilal Zahid has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to the Slovak Republic.

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.

Hello,

Let’s talk briefly about AI and geopolitics. Stop rolling your eyes.

The United States currently produces some of the world’s most powerful chips, essential for AI systems to operate at the cutting edge. To maintain this advantage, President Biden created a diffusion framework. Under this framework, countries were divided into three tiers. Tier 1 countries, including Britain, can access US chips freely. Tier 2 countries, which cover most of the so-called Global South, face limits on how many chips they can buy. China and other adversaries are placed in Tier 3 and are largely cut off.

The Trump administration is now asking for views on this framework. This week, it was reported that it was considering replacing this tiered system with a set of bilateral agreements. This would allow the United States to tailor access to AI chips on a country-by-country basis, turning chips into a tool of trade and diplomacy.

Two days ago, one of the world’s leading artificial intelligence (AI) companies submitted evidence on its framework. Anthropic stated “we anticipate that extremely powerful AI systems will be built in the next few years, and that these systems will have transformative capabilities that can drive economic growth and strengthen national security.” It added that the timeline it was working on for the arrival of “powerful AI” - loosely defined below - was by 2027.

• “Intellectual capabilities matching or exceeding that of Nobel Prize winners across most disciplines—including biology, computer science, mathematics, and engineering.

• The ability to navigate all interfaces available to a human doing digital work today, including the ability to process and generate text, audio, and video, the ability to autonomously control technology instruments like mice and keyboards, and the ability to access and browse the internet.

• The ability to autonomously reason through complex tasks over extended periods— hours, days, or even weeks — seeking clarification and feedback when needed, much like a highly capable employee would.

• The ability to interface with the physical world; controlling laboratory equipment, robotic systems, and manufacturing tools through digital connections.”

While comments from AI companies should always be critically analysed and incentives considered, it does give us room to ponder. Let us look to the future, briefly, as if we were running Britain.

If the world splits into two camps around the future of AI, one potential dividing line is likely to run through the infrastructure that powers it, rather than regulation or ethics. This is not just about talent or regulation; it is about chips, data centres and the geopolitical control of the digital hardware needed to build and run AI.

• A United States-led bloc: likely to include Britain, Five Eyes partners, NATO members, Japan, South Korea and others. These countries currently have a clear advantage, as most of the world’s most powerful AI systems are being developed using computing power based in the US, operated by tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft and Google. These firms control huge networks of data centres filled with specialised computer chips, like Nvidia’s H100, used to train the most advanced AI models. That infrastructure gives these countries a strong hand in shaping how AI is built and regulated.

• A PRC-led bloc: probably formed of countries from across the so-called Global South, with various African nations using Chinese-made AI systems and infrastructure. China’s tech firms, like Alibaba, Huawei and Tencent, are expanding their own data networks, often offering lower-cost alternatives bundled with loans and infrastructure projects, and already have a significant presence across Africa. Huawei alone built 70% of the continent’s 4G network. These are attractive to many developing countries. But the computing power involved is generally more limited and geared more towards running existing AI systems than developing new ones. Many of these countries are becoming what researchers have described as the “Compute South” or even the “Compute Desert”: places that rely on foreign infrastructure but have little control over it themselves. Note that many countries engaging with Chinese tech firms are doing so out of necessity, not ideological alignment. They often hedge.

What to make of this if you were Prime Minister? This scenario clearly presents a strategic challenge for the United Kingdom. We are aligned with the United States, and will likely remain so. But we also need to engage with countries that are being drawn into China’s orbit, especially in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. If we want influence in this emerging digital world, we will need to offer more than goodwill. So, how could the UK seek to increase its influence among this bloc? That will depend on which domains (compute, data, security, standards) Downing Street chooses to focus on.

As noted in a previous Telegram, Britain has supported Kenya’s national AI strategy, and held talks with Gulf countries about cloud infrastructure. Recent bilateral discussions with Qatar covered AI health collaboration at length. In South America, Brazil could also be a valuable partner for data centres. But research shows that these relationships will not deepen unless they are backed by real action. Countries are choosing partners based on who can offer tangible support, such as data centres, technical training or help setting digital standards.

But these outreaches probably won’t make significant inroads into that bloc. So a second, more realpolitik play, would be to work out which nations could be partnered or incentivised to serve as a counterweight to the PRC in this group.

India is a good example. It is often described as a natural ally of the West, but in reality it plays both sides. Indian political elites are adept at hedging, at strategic engagement on their own terms. It trades extensively with China, buys Russian oil, and cooperates with the West on select terms. Securing India’s support on AI issues will require more than warm words. It will take investment, credible incentives, careful diplomacy, and a very complex understanding of Indian elite’s ambitions and incentives. The same is true across much of the so-called Global South.

The key point is this: countries that do not host the computer infrastructure needed to train AI will have little say in how it is built. At present, the United States and China are shaping the map. Britain must now decide if it wants to help shape the rules of this new system, or accept a position where it follows the decisions made by others.

Apologies for missing last week’s note. I’ve been flat out. I’ve also started writing long-form essays aimed at red-teaming Westminster’s thinking for fun. This first argues that British Steel’s situation is a symptom of a deeper issue. My next one is on illegal fishing and a plan to tackle it.

Sam Hogg

Britain’s Apex Predator Problem

These essays are meant to be provocative, and based on both a red team principle and my love of the Oyster Club. It is my aim to stress test Westminster concepts, learn from the feedback I receive, and introduce new ideas occasionally. I am a firm believer in putting pen to paper, or fingers to touchpad, as a means of refining thinking. I will certain…

Read more

a year ago · 16 likes · 3 comments · Sam Hogg

— Sam Hogg

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, attended the funeral of Pope Francis in Rome. He met President Donald Trump, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and President Emmanuel Macron on the sidelines of the historic event.

2. Angela Rayner, Deputy Prime Minister, visited the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp, liberated by British forces 80 years ago.

3. Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, welcomed his Indian counterpart to London. Rumours circulated that the Free Trade Agreement was approaching its final stage.

4. David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, visited Qatar and Oman. The trip was pitched through a security lens by the Government.

5. Mr Lammy and Mr Starmer also hosted Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa in Downing Street.

6. Britain conducted successful strikes against Houthi targets in the Red Sea supported by the US, using RAF Typhoons. The justification was in response to threats to freedom of navigation.

7. Chris Bryant and Catherine West, Culture and Indo-Pacific Ministers respectively, hosted a meeting of the UK Soft Power Council in Cardiff.

8. Douglas Alexander, Trade Minister, met with Kazakhstan Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Kuantyrov.

9. The Carrier Strike Group entered the Med and met the Singapore Navy Frigate, RSS Formidable, at sea.

10. The British High Commission in Nigeria has been forced to deny that a man arrested for smuggling a large amount of weapons was a serving British Army Officer. The alleged smuggler “did serve as a junior rank in the UK Armed Forces Reserves but was discharged.”

11. Britain and Japan signed a Memorandum of Cooperation on quantum science and technology.

Palestine and Middle East diplomacy

KEY POINTS:

• Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy hosted Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa in Downing Street.

• Britain and Palestine signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Strategic Cooperation.

• The document reaffirmed Britain’s commitment to a two-state solution and noted the humanitarian crisis in the region.

• Mr Lammy recently returned from a visit to Oman and Qatar, where these matters - alongside investment - were discussed

Barring Ukraine, few foreign affairs issues have cut across the British public consciousness like the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. No fewer than four British politicians won their seats during the last election after primarily campaigning on Gaza issues, former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is pushing for a Chilcot-esque Inquiry in Parliament, and Labour strategists still fear Muslim voters will coalesce around Gaza-focussed independent candidates rather than theirs.

On a macro level, this is an extremely complex and uncomfortable situation for this Government. Downing Street has sought to try and influence both sides, calling for Israel to obey international laws and supplying them with military aid, whilst urging Hamas to release the hostages and trying to get aid into Gaza. It is very aware that this approach risks appearing incoherent and unsustainable, not just to a domestic audience, but to other key partners in the region (and the so-called Global South more generally, let alone the White House). The ongoing conflict cuts across diplomatic engagement with other nations in the region - the Foreign Secretary’s recent visit to Oman and Qatar both discussed Gaza.

On Monday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy welcomed Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa to Downing Street. The visit, the first at this level since 2021 during COP, sought to reaffirm Britain’s support for a two-state solution and was accompanied by an aid announcement. The British Government’s readout noted that “discussing the Arab Plan for Gaza, the Prime Minister shared the UK’s support for the Palestinian Authority’s reform programme, which he said is critical. The leaders agreed that a strategic political framework will be necessary as part of the implementation of a two-state solution, and that Hamas must have no role in Gaza’s governance.” The MoU covered nine sectors of discussion, from security to culture, and represented a new chapter of engagement from Downing Street’s point of view.

Days later, Mr Lammy told Peers during a Committee hearing that Britain is in discussion with France and Saudi Arabia over the recognition of a Palestinian state at an upcoming June conference convened by the two countries. The Foreign Secretary stated ”It is unacceptable for any group of people to have lived with no state for longer than I’ve been alive.”

The visit followed Mr Lammy’s recent trip to the region. The Foreign Secretary spent the better part of the weekend with Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tarik Al Said and Foreign Minister, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, and Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense Affairs Sheikh Saoud bin Abdulrahman bin Hassan Al Thani. Former Hakluyt man and now FCDO PuS Olly Robbins accompanied him.

Qatar, in particular, remains the primary external actor with working leverage over Hamas, coordinating with the US, Egypt, and Israel on ceasefire and hostage release negotiations. Oman, traditionally a quiet regional balancer and long-time British friend, has emerged as a discreet venue for dialogue, especially concerning backchannel communication between Iran and the West. Britain is keen to build “on Arab and Palestinian-led initiatives” for an end to the conflict in Gaza.

Discussions with Qatar proved particularly fruitful. Like its monarch-led neighbours, the tiny state is adept at geoeconomics and takes an active investment interest in Britain (somewhere in the region of £40 billion’s worth). To this end, a strategic dialogue attended by the foreign ministers saw plans to build on “the four pillars of trade, investment and economy, defence, security and counterterrorism, leadership on global challenges and people-to-people connections.” The upcoming JETCO will “incorporate discussion across a range of priority sectors including education, creative industries, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, technology and artificial intelligence.” On the defence and homeland security front (a key point for Labour domestically), an upcoming MoU will see both nations work more closely on issues including irregular migration.

A significant part of the Communique covered AI collaboration, which is fairly extensive between both nations. In December 2024, the pair launched a joint research commission to establish a roadmap for collaboration, focusing on areas like compute and AI for development.

Share

DEFENCE

• Talks between Brussels and London for a security and defence partnership are ongoing with EU ambassadors scheduled to discuss a first draft put together by the Commission's External Action Service next week.

• The Ministry of Defence has confirmed that approximately 1,600 military personnel are currently held at readiness to support UK resilience operations

• A satellite developed by British academics and engineers is set to become the first in the world to measure the condition of the Earth’s forests in 3D from space.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, spoke to Maroš Šefčovič, European Commission Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security.

• Nick Thomas Symonds, Minister for the Cabinet Office, and Mr Šefčovič gave a joint UK-EU statement.

• Mr Lammy also spoke to Denis Bećirović, Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

• The Foreign Office issued multiple advice updates for Guyana this week. The small nation has seen widespread rioting and protests following the death of a young girl at a hotel: many believe a cover-up is in play.

AI & EMERGING TECH

• UK researchers and businesses now have increased access to Horizon Europe quantum and space funding.

• British organisations can apply to take part in an EU-RoK Semiconductor Researcher Forum and attend the Global Conference of Innovation Materials 2025 in the Republic of Korea.

• The University of Southampton opened a new facility to build the next generation of semiconductor chips, the first of its kind in Europe. By the way, nearly 40% of the UK's 27,000-strong semiconductor workforce is set to retire in the next 15 years.

DOMESTIC AND DIASPORA

• The Foreign Secretary confirmed the Government was monitoring spillover from the ongoing India-Pakistan tensions. Significant protests broke out between the two diaspora groups in Britain.

TRADE & BUSINESS

• Britain and Nigeria agreed new measures to tackle international fraud and scams.

• Trade deals: The media reported that an FTA with India was in the closing stages. On the US, Mr Starmer held off confirming if MPs would be allowed to have a vote on any deal.

• A cryptoasset business registered in the UK has been shut down after people in Estonia, Mauritania, Iran, New Zealand, Poland, and Romania said they paid for crypto mining services but did not receive the promised financial returns and were unable to withdraw their assets.

• Britain, Kenya, and the County Government of Lamu have joined forces to lay the foundation stone at a new cotton processing facility in Lamu County.

DIPLOMATS

• Victoria Busby OBE has been appointed British High Commissioner to the Republic of Malta.

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.

Hello,

Thank you for all the feedback and views that many of you shared with me regarding the future of this project. I won’t be self-indulgent, so briefly, here’s a look at the top asks and comments:

• By some distance, requests to cover things sitting off the Westminster radar was the most popular. That’s been noted, and I will continue to draw them out as and when I find them.

• More ‘titbits’ - things that I come across which are deep below the surface but that pique my interest. Noted, and will add more.

• The length is fine - interesting, as I suspect this wouldn’t be the case.

• Brief discussions with diplomats, mandarins, and people of interest in this space. I like that idea, and will seek to find a way to incorporate it. If YOU are a diplomat or other interesting character reading this, feel free to get in touch.

Today’s note is short: I’m travelling for the Easter Weekend. Have a peaceful one folks.

— Sam Hogg

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, ordered the Government to intervene to stop a steel processing site owned by Chinese firm Jingye from closing. British Steel will likely be nationalised in the near future.

2. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, gathered global leaders in London for a conference on Sudan. The African nation has been a priority of Mr Lammy’s since he took up the post last summer, often being raised in his speeches. The conference met mixed results. The Foreign Secretary held a number of bilateral meetings on the sidelines.

3. Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, rowed back on comments around Chinese-owned firms operating in sectors deemed strategic by the British government. Mr Reynolds is due to visit China later this year, as will the Prime Minister and rumoured other Cabinet ministers.

4. Alexander Douglas, the Economic Security Minister, visited China and Hong Kong. His unpublicised journey overlapped with a British MP being denied entry into Hong Kong to visit their grandchild.

5. Hamish Falconer, a Foreign Office Minister, visited Oman. He was in Muscat to observe talks between the US and Iran in seeking a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear problem.

6. Kerry McCarthy, a Climate Minister, visited Malaysia. She discussed energy transition issues and met with her counterparts.

7. Angela Eagle, Home Office Minister, visited India. She discussed border control issues with her counterparts.

8. Vernon Coaker, a Defence Minister, visited Colombia and Guyana.

9. Tony Radakin, Chief of Defence Staff, visited Saudi Arabia. He was in Riyadh for the eighth gathering of the ‘Dragon Group’ of Middle East defence chiefs.

10. The British Government sent £752 million to Ukraine in the latest tranche of payments. It also sanctioned Foxtrot Network, a criminal gang linked to the Iranian regime.

11. John Bew, the former foreign affairs adviser to three Prime Ministers, was brought back to help the Government craft an upcoming security strategy. Another highly respected Whitehall security figure, Tom Drew, was appointed Ambassador to France. Mr Drew was most recently Director General, Defence and Intelligence at the Foreign Office. His wife, Joanna Roper, is the British Ambassador to the Netherlands and Permanent Representative to the OPCW.

1. Sudan Conference

KEY POINTS:

• Britain assembled represenatives from over a dozen countries and institutions in London to discuss Sudan. The gathering marked the second anniverary of the country’s civil war.

• A planned communique failed to emerge after several Arab states refused to sign. Many of these states - especially the UAE, Egypt, Turkey and Iran - are heavily involved in the Sudanese conflict via proxies.

• Despite this, the G7 foreign ministers put out a statement, and Britain announced further funding for the conflict’s victims.

“I do not regard the procuring of peace as a matter in which we should play the role of arbiter between different opinions…more that of an honest broker who really wants to press the business forward.” In Diplomacy, his book on the subject, the late Henry Kissinger attributed that quote to Otto von Bismark, around the Congress of Berlin in 1878, convened to settle tensions in the Balkans after the Russo-Turkish War. Mr Kissinger

A century and a half later, Britain’s Foreign Secretary finds himself in an unenviable position not too dissimilar. While the focus may now be on a different continent, David Lammy’s comments on the conflict in Sudan reflect a similarly realpolitik approach to bringing it to its end, both on humanitarian grounds, and to stop illegal immigration (a domestic priority of the Labour Government).

Some background: this conflict is primarily a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary group the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo. The UN has characterised this as the “world’s largest hunger crisis”, with over 25 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. Over 10 million people have been displaced, both internally and to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia, and South Sudan. Much of Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, is in ruins, and other cities have been besieged or destroyed. The conflict has led to widespread shortages of food, water, medicine, and fuel.

Britain has taken a prominent role in responding to this complex geopolitical and humanitarian crisis:

• Diplomatic Efforts: The UK is one of several countries working to resolve the crisis, often issuing joint statements with the US and Norway. The UK holds the position of ‘penholder’ on Sudan at the UN Security Council, leading the council’s activities on the country. Mr Lammy has prioritised the issue in the Foreign Office.

• Humanitarian Aid: Britain has significantly increased its humanitarian funding for Sudan. It provided £38 million in aid in the 2023/24 financial year and had committed to doubling this to £89 million in 2024/25; the Labour government pledged an additional £15 million. During the conference this week, the UK announced a further £120 million in life-saving aid for the 2025 to 2026 financial year, intended to reach over 650,000 people with food, nutrition, and support for survivors of sexual violence. The total UK spend on Sudan, South Sudan, and Chad is over £220 million in the current financial year.

• Advocacy and Condemnation: The UK has strongly condemned the ongoing conflict, atrocities, and human rights violations. Mr Lammy has been vocal in calling for an immediate ceasefire, the protection of civilians, and unhindered humanitarian access. He also visited the Chad-Sudan border to witness the impact of the conflict. The UK has also imposed sanctions on commercial entities linked to both the SAF and RSF to pressure them to halt fighting.

• Support for Civilian Transition: The UK has often reaffirmed its support for a democratic transition in Sudan and emphasises that any resolution must include the voices of Sudanese civilians.

Adding further complexity to the situation, multiple external actors are backing the warring factions, increasing the conflict's lethality and muddying the waters for British diplomacy. Many of them were present at the conference in London:

• The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are allegedly backed by:

  • Chad and the United Arab Emirates (UAE): There have been numerous credible reports of both providing funding and weapons to the RSF. The UAE's involvement is linked to its strategic interests in Africa and the Middle East, its sourcing of fighters from both factions for the Yemen war since 2015, its position as the primary importer of Sudanese gold, and its reported multibillion-dollar plans for Red Sea ports. Despite a UN panel of experts finding these reports "credible", the UAE denies involvement. This is a difficult issue from a British perspective, as London and Abu Dhabi are closely interlinked diplomatically, financially, and strategically.

  • Wagner Group (Russia): Soldiers from the Wagner Group, with ties to Russia, have actively backed the RSF. While the direct link between Wagner Group (The Company to insiders) and the Kremlin is not always as direct as it’s made out to be, Russia’s hand is in play.

• The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are reportedly backed by:

  • Egypt: Egypt has maintained close ties with the Sudanese army.

  • Turkey: Turkey is also supporting the SAF.

  • Iran: Iran is reportedly supplying drones to SAF forces.

  • Russia: Recent reports suggest Russia may be switching its support from the RSF to the SAF, providing weapons and ammunition in exchange for establishing a naval logistics base on the Red Sea.

The summit brought together foreign ministers and high-level representatives from Canada, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Norway, Qatar, South Sudan, Switzerland, Türkiye, UAE, Uganda and the USA, alongside high-level representatives of the League of Arab States (LAS) and the UN. As noted above, several of those nations are backing elements of the rival factions. This perhaps goes some way to explaining why the summit failed to produce a joint communique from all members: Sudanese media reported disputes between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE over the wording of the final statement reportedly scuttled hopes for a unified declaration.

Share

DEFENCE

• Britain’s outgoing High Commissioner to Australia, Vicki Treadell, told Australian media "AUKUS is assured. We are very confident on that front. No doubt of it, not a scintilla, not from me, not from the British government."

• Italy's defence minister has claimed the UK is not fully sharing technologies from the Tempest next-generation fighter jet project with his country and Japan.

• The Government’s sweeping Defence Reform programme will not require formal Parliamentary approval.

• Britain’s ambassador to Somalia, Mike Nithavrianakis, met the new Defence Minister.
  

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Britain and France issued a joint statement of concern about the latest events in Haiti.

• British High Commissioner to Ghana, Harriet Thompson, met Ghanaian Minister for Interior, Mr Muntaka Mohammed-Mubarak and reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the robust bilateral ties between both countries.

SANCTIONS

• Britain announced further sanctions to tackle the domestic threat posed by the Iranian regime by sanctioning Iranian-backed, Swedish-based Foxtrot criminal Network and its leader, Rawa Majid, for their role in attacks against targets across Europe.
  

TRADE & BUSINESS

• US Vice President J.D. Vance seemed to indicate a US-UK trade deal was on the agenda in an interview with British press.

• The British government, through the Mobilist programme, has invested N9.5 billion in InfraCredit, Nigeria’s first and only domestic credit guarantee institution, supporting its listing on the country’s NASD OTC Securities Exchange.

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar from a Westminster perspective.

Hello,

This project is now around four months old. In place of this week’s note, I’m asking for your feedback.

There are now roughly 4,400 of you reading these updates which I produce in my free time. Many of you hold leadership roles across government, business and diplomacy. So I’d like to ask: how can this be more useful to you?

WHAT I’M TRYING TO DO

I write these with three assumptions in mind:

1. You are rich in many things, except one: time.

2. You are intelligent and well read, but constantly navigating a flood of newsletters, research notes, podcasts and competing sources. Many of you are scanning for alpha: the one insight that gives you an edge.

3. You believe that knowledge compounds. One briefing a week, over a year, might prompt an investment or policy decision sparked by something you read here months earlier.

MY CURRENT ASSESSMENT

Here is how I see things, shaped by my professional background and previous work running a geopolitical briefing firm:

• I am trying to track breakthrough developments in artificial intelligence as they emerge. AI is still not being priced properly by policymakers, yet it is likely to be the defining technology of the coming decades. Some countries and companies seem acutely aware of this.

• I will often take a red-team view. Partly a flaw of my personality but also an attempt to challenge groupthink where it might add value. I'm drawn to contrarian angles, though not always by design.

• The notes strike the right balance of editorial commentary for now, but over time (and with compounded understanding), I hope to speak more authoritatively on certain issues.

• This product could evolve to focus more on international trade and finance – debt, gilt markets, bilateral agreements.

• It is probably too long. The bullet points at the end are useful for tracking diplomatic, defence, trade, aid and AI developments, but they may not be valuable to the majority of you.

WHAT ARE YOUR VIEWS?

My aim is to anticipate what will matter and put it in your hands before it does. Please tell me what is working, what is not, and what you would like to see more of.

Please do reply to this email if you have a view. I’ll digest all of it and update accordingly.

Email me

While you ponder that, I wanted to highlight some examples of where I’ve brought attention to an issue weeks ahead of it appearing on the mainstream radar.

6 December 2024: Suggested readers “keep a close eye on Bangladesh”, drawing the link between the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her niece, the then City Minister Tulip Siddiq MP, in light of a “theme emerging from bilateral meetings with Bangladeshi counterparts…around the return of laundered money in the UK”

19 December 2024. Sky News and other outlets report that Tulip Siddiq will be facing investigation from Bangladesh over her previous financial links.

17 January 2025: Flagged a series of financial deals signed between Iraq and Britain, covering 13 different projects and sectors.

25 February 2025: The Times reports on BP’s Iraq deal.

21 March 2025: Flagged ongoing British movements in the Balkans, including assigning a veteran diplomat to oversee actions in the region. Noted the building concern over Russian and Chinese influence in niche pockets of Westminster.

9 April 2025: Politico speaks to Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who states Putin wants the Western Balkans as his next “playground.”

Subscribe now

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar from a Westminster perspective.

Hello,

“Last night, the President of the United States acted for his country. That is his mandate. Today, I will act in Britain’s interests, with mine.”

So spoke Prime Minister Keir Starmer at a gathering of business leaders in Downing Street on Thursday morning. The previous evening, the United States of America imposed a baseline 10% tariff on all goods entering the country, with higher tariffs on approximately 60 countries with which it has significant trade deficits or that impose substantial tariffs on U.S. goods. Mathematically, the new tariffs appeared unsound. Politically, they were consistent with much of what Mr Trump and his advisers have long discussed. Those looking to the future would do well to skim the White House’s ‘America First Investment Policy’ from February this year. Those looking for a reasoned and interesting argument as to why Mr Trump placed these tariffs should consider reading this.

In a certain way, the British Government was pleased to be in the lowest 10% bracket. The United States is Britain’s largest trading partner (excluding blocs like the EU), accounting for somewhere in the region of 17% of all trade, and both countries have what the Prime Minister has repeatedly referred to as “a fair and balanced trade relationship”, meaning minimal surplus or trade deficits. Washington and London are deep in negotiations around a potential economic agreement; talk to diplomats and those operating around the deal, and they suggest it’s fairly advanced with a focus on technology and regulation. For the moment, Mr Starmer should, and will, be praised for his deft diplomacy in making sure Britain sits in this tier.

As trade wars go, Thursday’s initial announcement had been factored in already by British leadership. Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds told MPs “it remains our belief that the best route to economic stability for working people is a negotiated deal with the US that builds on our shared strengths.” However, he launched a “request for input on the implications for British businesses of possible retaliatory action” over the next month, with over 400 pages of potential products outlined. There was even talk among some economists, politicos and analysts of Britain positioning itself as a more favourable destination for companies seeking to access the U.S. market, compared to those in Germany (20% tariff) and Japan (24% tariff). Perhaps. But this also comes with risk: if the UK is perceived as a tariff evasion route (via transshipment or content rules), it may face Trumpian retaliation.

Nothing in the world happens in isolation, and - despite the best efforts of some - globalisation and the debts and promises made by liberal democracies to other nations must still be accounted for. Mr Trump targeted nations like Vietnam (46%), Sri Lanka (44%), Bangladesh (37%), and Madagascar (47%), many of which anchor aid-driven relationships. They also form part of a wider region in which the White House has spent decades and billions of dollars attempting to build influence. Consider how often analysts have noted Chinese operations or efforts to influence or coerce in Fiji (32%), the Solomon Islands (10%), or Taiwan (32%). Most of these are not rich countries, and many of their economies rely extensively on access to the system which Mr Trump is currently dismantling.

Then there is the British geopolitical outlook. Over 45 nations from the British Commonwealth were hit. These are not wealthy countries looking to exploit the US economy; just over 67% have over 20% of their population already living below the poverty line. Many of these nations are core nodes in UK development finance through its finance institution, British International Investment (BII), and soft-power projection targets, already facing substantial economic pressure and caught between great power struggles. The economic impact of these tariffs will likely see Britain forced to use its diplomatic budget and political capital not for poverty alleviation but to stabilise key supply chains disrupted by American protectionism.

On artificial intelligence, a technology that will define the next decade in a way few policymakers yet grasp, the tariffs also present issues. Mr Trump exempted certain key tech products under Section 3(b), Annex II of the EO, including semiconductors. But tariffs on Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and key assembly hubs (Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia) could force a decoupling of semiconductor and compute-intensive AI stacks. Although semiconductors and certain critical technologies are nominally exempt, the structure of Mr Trump’s order ensures strategic ambiguity, giving the White House leverage to selectively enforce or withdraw those exemptions. This creates regulatory risk for firms, factories and leaders.

Let us briefly dwell on some potential upsides. Mr Starmer’s diplomatic push seems to have paid off, relatively speaking. Could Britain begin to position itself as a trusted, savvy, and transactional mediator between the US and other affected nations? Could it lure producers into the country? And to what extent will this economic shock trigger a resurgence in the belief of free trade and globalism over the next decade?

History has a troubling knack of skulking its way through the corridors of power, kicking in the doors of those whom it believes are ignoring its lessons. Those who dismissed warnings about the escalating logic of American protectionism are now forced to reckon with a transformed landscape, one where tariffs act as both economic barriers and geopolitical signals. These are new eras with old ideas.

— Sam Hogg

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, assembled nations and organisations in London to discuss tackling illegal immigration and international crime associated with it. “I’ve put smashing the gangs on the agenda of international summits. Showing that the UK now means business. Working together with our allies. We’ve struck new agreements and plans with so many of the countries represented in the room here today,” said the Prime Minister.

2. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, visited Madrid for a meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the Weimar +. The Foreign Ministers of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain and the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy issued a long statement on Ukraine.

3. Mr Lammy travelled onwards to Brussels to attend a NATO gathering. He used his speech to urge other NATO partners to increase defence spending.

4. Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, argued a softly softly approach, rather than reciprocal tariffs, was the best strategy to pursue after Britain failed to avoid tariffs from the United States of America. No10 appeared pleased that it was in the 10% tariff band. Downing Street is still trying to carve out exemptions as part of a wider trade deal.

5. Donald Trump, the US President, gave a green light to the UK’s plan to hand the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius. Britain’s Parliament has yet to see any meaningful level of detail around the deal.

6. Britain’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) and Defence Science and Technology (DST) Group Australia announced a partnership to develop next-generation sub-systems for low-cost weapons systems, bringing together cutting-edge technologies from both nations.

7. Britain announced a £20 million investment to kickstart ‘Starmaker One’ – a British private fusion investment fund that will help fusion businesses and start-ups in the sector grow and commercialise at scale.

8. Scottish Secretary Ian Murray, Lord Mayor of London Alastair King and Scottish Financial Enterprise Chief Executive Sandy Begbie met key sectors in a series of events in New York during Tartan Week.

9. The Foreign Office issued a statement in response to the latest Chinese military exercises around Taiwan. “We are concerned by China’s military exercises around Taiwan, part of a pattern of activity which is increasing tensions and risking dangerous escalation in the Taiwan Strait. The UK reaffirms our clear interest in peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, which is of critical importance to global prosperity, and our support for a free and open Indo-Pacific. We consider the Taiwan issue one to be settled peacefully by people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait through constructive dialogue, without the threat or use of force or coercion. Military drills or threats to Taiwan are not conducive to such dialogue. We do not support any unilateral attempts to change the status quo.”

10. Britain delivered an aid package of up to £10 million for Myanmar, following the earthquake that devastated the country.

Share

Leave a comment

1. ORGANISED IMMIGRATION SUMMIT

KEY POINTS:

• Prime Minister Keir Starmer has vowed to crack down on illegal immigration and people smuggling, both as a domestic and international priority issue.

• On Monday, he convened representatives from over 40 countries, and companies such as Meta, to discuss new approaches.

• Britain has launched new partnerships and funding for tackling this issue at the root, including with countries such as Iraq and Albania.

On Monday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer assembled over 40 nations and groups in London - including China and the United States, no small diplomatic accomplishment - to tackle the problem of illegal migration at "every step" of the route.

People smuggling and illegal immigration have been a central focus of the Labour Government during its first nine months. Why? Three interlinked reasons are worth considering, each with foreign policy and economic dynamics.

It was a Labour manifesto pledge: Successive governments have failed to limit illegal immigration across the English Channel. As a point of differentiation and based on polling data, Labour committed to tackling this issue head-on if it won the General Election. Having done so, the government must be seen to be making progress if it wants to reduce the probability of voters leaking to opposition parties Reform and the Conservatives. Additionally, illegal immigration and its second and third order impacts are increasingly discussed in dimly lit and noisy pubs frequented by Westminster’s influential wonk scene. That’s starting to permeate through to Downing Street, with tougher action - failure to comply will result in fines of up to £60,000 and prison terms of up to five years - promised for companies employing illegal immigrants as part of Mr Starmer’s speech.

It has significant costs: Aside from societal impacts, which Mr Starmer alluded to in his speech - “it undermines our ability to control who comes here, and that makes people angry. It makes me angry, frankly because it is unfair on ordinary working people who pay the price” - illegal immigration is expensive.

The non-partisan Institute for Fiscal Studies found that costs relating to asylum and illegal migration are an estimated £6.4 billion of pressures on day-to-day spending in 2024–25. A 2024 non-partisan House of Commons research report analysed various documents and costings. It found the average annual unit cost of an irregular migrant to the NHS was £570, and the average cost per day to hold an individual in immigration detention was estimated to be around £116 between October and December 2023. Further IFS analyses found the number of asylum seekers in ‘contingency, initial and other types of accommodation’ (a category that includes hotels) was 16 times higher at the end of March 2024 than at the end of March 2020.

The view from Downing Street is that this is unsustainable across several fronts: economically, societally, and - given that states rely on data to create policies, and many illegal immigrants understandably don’t announce themselves on record - from a governance point of view too. It is difficult to create strategies if you can’t get an accurate headcount.

It’s international: Downing Street views cracking down on illegal immigration as a multinational affair. As covered in previous Telegrams, joint work is underway with Iraq, Vietnam, Albania and other countries to tackle these issues at their source. Meanwhile, high level work with France and Germany has sought to change definitions and rules around halting footfall. For example, France’s maritime doctrine prevented law enforcement from responding to small boats in shallow waters; that’s changed. And with Germany, it wasn’t technically illegal to facilitate people-smuggling to a country outside the EU; that’s changed too. Following the summit, the governments of Albania, China, Sweden, Tunisia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Vietnam signed a joint statement setting out further plans to tackle organised immigration crime.

Beyond the United States, other nations are dramatically changing their own approach to illegal immigration and asylum. Italy has signed migration deals with Tunisia and Libya to limit departures, Germany announced legislative amendments including more restrictive asylum laws and an increase in deportations, and Australia continues its policy of offshore processing, detaining asylum seekers in facilities such as those on Nauru despite UN criticism, and has introduced legislation allowing for the deportation of unlawful non-citizens to third countries.

Subscribe now

2. FIRS

KEY POINTS:

• From July, individuals and organisations acting at the direction of foreign powers must register UK-based activities under the new Foreign Influence Registration Scheme. The scheme includes a general political tier and a stricter enhanced tier targeting hostile states such as Russia and Iran.

• Registration covers a wide range of sectors and scenarios, including lobbying, media, research, events, consultancy, and charitable campaigning. Real-world examples include charities lobbying ministers with foreign funding, tech executives reporting to hostile governments, and journalists publishing at state direction.

• Failure to comply carries criminal penalties of up to five years in prison. A new public register will provide visibility, with limited exemptions where safety or security risks apply. The scheme aligns the UK with international partners and signals a shift to greater scrutiny of covert state-linked activity.

On the eve of the 20th century, the British government faced a problem. Deeply invested in the ‘Scramble for Africa’, it boasted the world’s largest and most powerful navy and an empire on which the sun never set. Across the channel, Chancellor Otto von Bismarck had reshaped Europe, forming a newly unified German empire. Across the Atlantic, America was entering its Gilded Age. Yet Britain had a problem: for all its global reach, power and pomp, it had no meaningful law to stop state secrets from being shared. The Official Secrets Act 1889 sought to rectify that. While flawed, it set a framework patched several times in the following years.

A century and a half later, and Britain again finds itself updating its spy laws. From 1 July, the United Kingdom will bring into force the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS), a new statutory requirement for individuals and organisations acting at the direction of foreign states, promised as part of the National Security Act 2023. The scheme includes two distinct tiers.

1. The political influence tier applies to all foreign powers except Ireland and captures activities intended to influence elections, government policy, legislation, or political parties.

2. The enhanced tier applies only to countries the UK designates as posing a risk to national security. So far, that list includes Iran and Russia. Activities directed by these states, or by organisations they control, must be registered regardless of purpose. The requirement applies whether or not payment is involved, and whether direction is formal or informal.

The Government’s position is that foreign influence is not inherently illegitimate - a point frequently missed in Westminster. However, covert influence distorts public debate, undermines democratic institutions, and carries security risks. FIRS is intended to correct this by making state-linked activities visible and accountable. For the political tier, actors must register within 28 days of being directed by a foreign power to influence UK political affairs. Under the enhanced tier, actors must register any activity before it begins. Those who fail to do so may receive an “information notice” from the Home Office. Ignoring or refusing to comply is a criminal offence. Offenders can face up to two years in prison under the political tier and up to five under the enhanced.

Sector-specific examples demonstrate the breadth of FIRS.

• A charity that receives funding from a foreign government to lobby a UK minister about development aid is required to register.

• So too is a civil society organisation that is directed to hold an awareness event or run a social media campaign on a foreign government’s behalf. I

• n one illustrative case from the guidance, a Russian tech executive instructed by the Kremlin to attend a UK AI conference and report back to Moscow would fall within scope.

• A UK charity that is offered diplomatic promotion and donations in exchange for influencing a peer in the House of Lords is also required to register.

• The enhanced tier even captures academic conferences, awareness events and policy articles if directed by a hostile power.

• Media organisations are not exempt. A journalist publishing articles or hosting events in the UK on instruction from a designated state must register under the enhanced tier. The exemption for recognised news publishers only applies under the political tier and does not shield those acting for hostile states.

• In the defence sector, a UK contractor asked by the Iranian Ministry of Defence to attend an arms symposium and report findings would fall within scope. Businesses are also captured.

• A lobbying firm instructed by a foreign power to influence MPs must register.

• A state-owned company is only required to register if its UK activities are directed by the state, not merely because it is state-owned.

The UK’s approach mirrors similar measures in the United States and Australia, and is informed by rising concern over foreign interference. Ministers argue that FIRS enhances democratic resilience without obstructing legitimate engagement. Engagement remains welcome, but secrecy will no longer be tolerated. A public register will be maintained, except in cases where publishing the information could endanger individuals or national security. The Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary will have powers to review designations and exemptions. For those working in diplomacy, policy, media, research or civil society, the direction of travel is now clear. If you are acting on behalf of a foreign power in the UK, you will be expected to say so.

Share

DEFENCE

• John Healey, the Defence Secretary, held a meeting with venture capital firms on how to incentivise greater private investment into defence and deep technology.

• Lord Vernon Coaker, Defence Minister, visited Poland.

• British built Typhoon jets arrived in Eastern Poland to take part in a NATO enhanced air policing mission.

• The Royal Navy’s submarine-hunting Merlin helicopters will receive world-class maintenance under a £165 million contract extension, supporting 1,000 skilled UK jobs.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Keir Starmer spoke to the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, reaffirming Britain’s support. Mr Starmer hosted President of Finland Alexander Stubb in Downing Street, discussing JEF membership among other issues.

• David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, travelled to Kosovo and Serbia to strengthen cooperation on tackling irregular migration and serious organised crime.

• Britain and Vietnam signed an agreement to tackle human trafficking. It builds on a memorandum of understanding signed by the two countries in 2018.

• Lord Collins, Minister for Africa, UN, Commonwealth & Human Rights, visited Uganda.

AI & EMERGING TECH

• The British Government set out the scope and ambition of its promised Cyber Security and Resilience Bill.

• Nick Joad, Director for Defence Science and Technology, visited Singapore for a defence summit. He discussed quantum technologies and other issues.

• A Government-commissioned report argued for stronger international collaboration to enhance Britain’s critical minerals capabilities, attract talent, and secure finance in midstream critical mineral processing and recycling. It identified opportunities to partner particularly with Australia, Canada, and Western nations, enabling greener supply chains, knowledge transfer, and investment into UK-based operations.

• Peter Kyle, the Science and Technology Secretary, toured an AI company ahead of plans to launch a new scheme targeted at school children.

SANCTIONS

• Britain sanctioned officials in Guatemala, Georgia and Moldova on corruption charges.

SOFT POWER AND AID

• Paul Robert Turner, High Commissioner to Solomon Islands and Non-Resident Commissioner to the Republic of Nauru, is the new International Commissioner of the Solomon Islands Scout Association.

• Judith Cummins, the Deputy Speaker of the Commons, visited Sri Lanka.

• The leaders of the French and British armies will visit Ukraine this weekend to work alongside Ukrainian military forces on deploying guarantee troops
  

TRADE & BUSINESS

• Sarah Sackman, a Justice Minister, joined British lawtech firms in Chicago to see how the UK legal sector is putting AI at the front and centre of its services.

• British Chamber of Commerce Rwanda launched.

• UK Export Finance (UKEF) is providing a £184 million credit guarantee to support the construction of the 495 MW Fengmiao 1 offshore wind farm in Taiwan, securing £55 million in manufacturing and service export contracts for British suppliers.

• The London Stock Exchange welcomed China’s Ministry of Finance.

DIPLOMATS

• Oliver Christian has been appointed as His Majesty's Consul General to New York and HM Trade Commissioner for North America.

• UK Special Envoy for the Western Balkans, Karen Pierce, met Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Montenegro, Ervin Ibrahimović.

• High Commissioner to Pakistan, Jane Marriott, called on President Asif Ali Zardari.

• Speaking to the Observer, the former UK ambassador to Washington Kim Darroch told the paper “It is clear that the United States is no longer a reliable partner.”

KENYA LAUNCHES AI STRATEGY

KEY POINTS:

• Kenya hopes to become an African AI leader, and has published a new strategy

• Britain’s Foreign Office helped feed into the strategy

• While naming key concepts, it lacks credible pathways and timelines, but nonetheless is a positive step

This week, Kenya published its Artificial Intelligence Strategy 2025–2030. Britain’s Foreign Office played a role in producing and advising on its contents, which present a confident and well-structured vision to position the country as a continental AI leader. For that, Kenya should be praised.

The strategy focuses on building better digital infrastructure, creating strong systems for collecting and managing data, and supporting local research and innovation. It also highlights the need for ethical standards, skills training, and investment. Yet it risks falling into the trap of aspirational policymaking without sufficient policy muscle or institutional capacity.

However, the strategy suffers a classic policymaking mistake: implementation vagueness. It is largely bereft of timelines, costings, and concrete accountability mechanisms. Flagship projects, like building AI research centres and expanding high-speed internet, include no meaningful timeline or budget.

Technically, the strategy name-checks all the right trends, but avoids the hard questions. For instance, it talks about edge computing, which means processing data close to where it is created rather than sending it far away to a central server. This is important in rural areas where internet connections may be slow or unreliable (and in a different use case, is what high-frequency trading firms fret about). It also refers to retrieval-augmented generation, a new AI technique that combines large language models with verified sources of information. This makes AI outputs more accurate and relevant. The strategy discusses data sovereignty, which is the idea that Kenyan citizens and institutions should control how their data is used and stored, rather than leaving that power to foreign companies. These are important concepts, but the strategy does not explain how Kenya will develop the infrastructure or legal systems needed to support them.

Despite these shortcomings, the use case for AI in Africa remains incredibly fascinating. Beyond the conventional arguments (increase in GDP, reforming of economy and so on), the case examples appearing are worth noting. For example, only 37% of sub-Saharan Africans use the internet - cost is the primary constraint. In a study with 469 teachers in Sierra Leone, researchers found AI works better than the web, and is 87% cheaper. Could AI in its current form change the way many African nations engage with internet infrastructure?

Share

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.

I’ve been travelling this week. 
As a result, this note is very short. 
Normal service resumes next week.

Hello,

Writing about US strategy in the Middle East this week, Wall Street Journal columnist Walter Russell Mead argued, “with so much going on, it’s more vital than ever to distinguish between the deep trends bringing lasting change to the region and the dramatic but ultimately less important events that often dominate the headlines.” How do we separate these things, and why should we? What’s the strategic argument and or economic thinking for doing so?

Handily, Bank of England economists tangentially explored these two themes in a recent paper. They looked at how geopolitical shocks, such as wars or international crises, impact economies and found that larger shocks create disproportionately bigger impacts. The researchers differentiated between geopolitical 'Acts' - real, tangible events like military invasions - and geopolitical 'Threats' - signals of rising tensions or threats of conflict, or loosely what Russell Mead identifies independently as “important events” versus “deep trends.” That may sound obvious, but it’s worth digging into the findings.

Their findings suggest that these two categories produce strikingly different economic responses. Acts typically cause immediate economic damage by reducing demand, suppressing prices, and slowing economic activity. In contrast, Threats significantly heighten economic uncertainty, prompting speculative increases in commodity prices, especially oil, and raising future inflation expectations.

Using a statistical technique called Vector Autoregression (VAR) [I know], which analyses how economic variables react to unexpected events over time, the researchers showed that small geopolitical events usually lead to mild market swings and limited economic impact. However, once a shock reaches a critical size, comparable to major events like the Gulf War or 9/11, its economic consequences escalate dramatically, far exceeding what standard linear models predict.

For example, moderate shocks (two standard deviations above normal, as shown on the chart above) might reduce consumer spending by around 0.2% and equity markets by roughly 2%. But severe shocks (eight standard deviations) trigger consumption drops nearing 2%, equity market falls of around 10%, and sharp spikes in market volatility, measured by the VIX index, of up to 14 points. In the simplest terms possible: severe shocks lower spending and market values approximately four times more than moderate shocks, and increase volatility roughly eight times more.

What to make of this if you are a mover and shaker in Westminster? First, don’t be put off by the numbers and equations. Despite the intimidating maths, there’s political alpha to be found in the reams of bank reports, analyst notes and annual results that get published constantly. Plug the numbers into an LLM and ask it to explain what’s going on. Get familiar with doing this. This is how we learn!

Second, these findings imply a clear need to make sure strategic economic forecasting and policymaking include these models. Linear economic models, those assuming proportional responses to shocks, may significantly underestimate the real impact of major geopolitical events. And third, this is good evidence that policymakers should be pushing for robust, scenario-based planning and stress-testing, accounting explicitly for the amplified effects of severe geopolitical shocks.

— Sam Hogg

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, travelled to France for a Coalition of the Willing meeting. He met the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte. Britain cautiously welcomed the latest update on the Russia- Ukraine front.

2. Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, delivered a Spring Statement on Wednesday. Defence and security were mentioned nearly 40 times. The Government shared further information on its development aid plans: crucially, it stated the budget would now be fixed in cash each year, rather than rising or falling based on economic performance.

3. In South Sudan, Britain withdrew most of its diplomatic staff as the country plunged into further violence. Ambassador David Ashley remained in post with a select team. Germany and Norway closed their embassies. Brits have been advised to leave the country.

4. The third annual UK-France All Military Chiefs meeting took place in London, bringing together the heads of the defence forces for both countries, alongside the heads of the Armies, Navies and Air Forces. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, said “The combined convening power of Britain and France is immense.”

5. The Government accepted recommendations put to it by the Telecoms Supply Chain Diversification Advisory Council. It committed to a comprehensive strategy aimed at diversifying and securing telecoms infrastructure to mitigate geopolitical risks, reduce economic vulnerabilities, and establish global technological leadership.

Subscribe now

1. SOUTH SUDAN

KEY POINTS:

• The situation in South Sudan continues to deteriorate. South Sudan’s President, Salva Kiir Mayardit, is from the Dinka ethnic group, and the SPLM (Sudan People’s Liberation Movement) ruling party.

• Its Vice-President, Riek Machar, is from the Nuer group, and the oppositon party SPLM-IO (Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition).

• The South Sudanese government has bombed Nasir, a Neur opposition-controlled area, and Uganda has moved heavy weapons across the border.

• Some Western embassies closed in the capital, Juba, moving operations to Kenya. Britain’s remained open but with a stripped down staff. Brits are urged not to travel to the country, and those who choose to remain have been encouraged to stock up and prepare shelter in place plans.

• Sudan is a specific focus of Foreign Secretary David Lammy, although he rarely mentions South Sudan relative to its northern neighbour.

On Wednesday, the British Embassy in Juba announced it was reducing staff due to escalating political tensions and insecurity and advised against all travel to South Sudan. Fighting was reported on the outskirts of the city. Germany and Norway closed their embassies, with the latter moving HQ to Kenya; British Ambassador David Ashley remained in post, on the ground, despite the mounting threats.

Quoted

“The United Kingdom is strongly urging South Sudan’s leaders to use their influence to urgently de-escalate the situation and prevent further violence.”

British Embassy Juba

, a collection of journalists and open-source intelligence analysts, have provided several insightful briefings and reports on the latest developments. South Sudan is teetering on its worst crisis since the last civil war in 2018. The key points for British policymakers are as follows:

• The South Sudan People’s Defense Forces, the government’s army affiliated with President Kiir, launched incendiary airstrikes on Nasir, a stronghold of the Nuer-affiliated White Army militia, killing at least 21 civilians. A helicopter also attacked nearby Longechuk County.

• The White Army is a loose militia group organised along clan lines, loosely allied to the SPLM-IO, led by Vice President Riek Machar.

• Machar himself is reportedly under de facto confinement, signalling the complete breakdown of trust within the unity government along ethnic lines.

• Foreign militaries are reportedly involved:

  • Uganda has deployed troops and heavy equipment to South Sudan, likely to support President Kiir.

  • Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF), accused of horrific acts against humanity, clashed with the SPLA-IO [the SPLM-IO’s military wing] near the Sudan–South Sudan border in Renk County. RSF forces ambushed a high-ranking SPLA-IO unit allegedly headed to Sudan’s Blue Nile state to collect weapons from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

    • The UAE has long been alleged to be supporting the RSF.

  • A high-ranking Sudanese military commander, Lt Gen Yasser Al-Atta, further escalated regional tensions by threatening military action against South Sudan and Chad.

When South Sudan became independent in 2011, the United Kingdom was one of the first countries to diplomatically recognise the fledgling nation. In the following decade, bilateral relations have typically centered around aid. Trade is severely impacted by the country’s weak infrastructure, continued insecurity, and underdeveloped markets, and British firms play a limited role in the country’s major industry, oil.

Beyond pushing for de-escalation, it’s not yet entirely clear what the British Embassy in Juba is hoping to achieve. Similar calls from the Pope and other African nations have been ignored. Foreign Secretary David Lammy has frequently highlighted that Sudan is an issue he cares deeply about, and one which he feels Western leaders and analysts often ignore. However, his public comments and interest doesn’t seem to extend south of the border, beyond thanking Juba for the role its played in trying to limit the conflict to its north.

Leave a comment

DEFENCE

• Babcock, the defence giant, won a contract to further supply and renew the British defence establishment.
  

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Keir Starmer gave remarks following a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing in Paris.

• Eleanor Sanders, Britain’s Human Rights Ambassador, delivered a 2025 Rohingya Joint Response Plan statement.

SANCTIONS

• Britain sanctioned four Sri Lankans who played pivotal roles in the island nation’s 26-year civil war between the government military and Tamil Tiger rebels. The Sri Lankan government was not pleased, with the Foreign Ministry noting “such unilateral actions by countries do not assist but serve to complicate the national reconciliation process underway in Sri Lanka.”

TECH AND AI

• UK taxes on big tech firms may be changed as part of a deal to avoid US President Donald Trump's next raft of tariffs, Chancellor Rachel Reeves suggested.

• The British Government launched its AI Accelerator Programme to “enable participants to work on projects across several government departments, including justice, health, and transport, to improve public services, drive efficiencies, and support the Government's broader Plan for Change.”

• The British Government backed a third wave of semiconductor companies.

• The British Government recently hosted the UK-Southeast Asia Tech Week in Manila.

ENVIRONMENT

• Britain and the Philippines held the 5th Climate Change and Environment Dialogue.

  
  

TRADE & BUSINESS

• The House of Lords International Agreements Committee expressed concern over the lack of concrete details in the UK-Ukraine 100 Year Partnership Agreement

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.

I’ve been travelling this week. As a result, this note will be shorter than usual while aiming to retain all the key details and focus on issues receiving less mainstream attention. Next week’s will be the same. Normal service resumes in a fortnight.

Hello,

In World Order, the late Henry Kissinger recounts a back and forth between two influential thinkers on defence and foreign policy. Discussing a proposal put forward by the great industrialist Andrew Carnegie to pursue a strategy of disarmament and international human rights, President Roosevelt responded: “We must always remember that it would be a fatal thing for the great free peoples to reduce themselves to impotence and leave the despotism and barbarism armed…the one thing I won’t do is to bluff when I cannot make good; to bluster and threaten and then fail to take the action if my words need to be backed up.”

Readers will be familiar with the notion that Britain is changing its defence posture. In short, this means increasing defence spending as a % of GDP, cutting overseas aid, reforming the defence procurement pipeline, and undertaking a wide-reaching defence review. Alliances and partnerships of the past will take on new dimensions, and potential chokepoints and supply chain issues a new light.

It’s worth taking stock of where the state currently spends its money. The Government spends nearly three times more on pensioner welfare than on defence. It spends over ten times as much on pensioner welfare as it does on science and technology, which includes supporting research into cutting-edge artificial intelligence and quantum projects. Debt interests alone cost 8%, or just a little more than the amount spent on defence, science and technology, energy security and the Foreign Office combined. A promise to hit 3% by the next Parliament is just that - a promise.

This is not to make a political point about demographics or Government fiscal policy. It is instead to focus the conversation on the reality: the defence budget is limited, the tectonics of how global warfare is conducted are changing, Britain’s defence procurement is, to put it mildly, dross, and Britain’s ability to project itself into key theatres will need better thinking. Efforts are underway on all these fronts.

The Government is finalising a Strategic Defence Review, reforming loans for defence SMEs, helping shape defence clusters, and attracting American defence companies to create new sites in the UK. Defence even received a passing (although unpromising) mention in the Chancellor’s newly published letter outlining the ‘Strategic Priorities to the National Wealth Fund’ this week. Most of these efforts should be lauded.

But other considerations and actions require more significant strategic capital. Where does Britain want to project its defensive posture? Is it still the Indo-Pacific? Is it on the European continent? Or is it in the High North, where Russia and China could begin to capitalise on global warming opening new maritime routes (and exploit the minimising the impact of sonar, per a recent NATO research paper)? Is it a mix of all three and more? What weapons, vehicles, vessels, and technologies reflect these priorities? What partnerships should Britain join to procure? Is the system set up to allow new financing for smaller defence companies?

In his recent book discussing the evolution of conflict from 1945 to the Ukraine War, General David Petraeus outlined four ideas leaders must grasp to work strategically:

1. Leaders must be able to assess the situation before them and craft an appropriate strategic response. In short, they need to get the big ideas right.

2. They must then be able to communicate the strategy effectively throughout their organisation and to external stakeholders.

3. They need to be able to oversee the implementation of the strategy, driving the execution of the campaign plan relentlessly and determinedly.

4. Finally, they must be able to revisit, refine and recommunicate 1), 2) and 3) as the situation develops

Prime Minister Keir Starmer is beginning to see that this is increasingly a transactional global order, and one in which Britain needs to move with confidence and dexterity. But with chaos comes opportunity, and with a clearly defined approach and restructuring, communicated clearly and executed relentlessly, Britain could punch above its weight.

— Sam Hogg

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, continued to assemble and cajole European leaders on Ukraine-linked issues. Mr Starmer hosted new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (formerly of The Bank of England) in Downing Street; Mr Carney arrived from France, the first stop on his post-election victory tour. The Canadian premier also held an audience with His Majesty King Charles III at Buckingham Palace.

2. David Lammy and John Healey, Foreign and Defence Secretaries respectively, hosted Kaja Kallas, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, for further discussions. Mr Lammy delivered a major speech on geopolitics and the private sector’s engagement with the Foreign Office.

3. Peter Kyle, the Science and Technology Secretary, began a week-long trip to the United States.

4. Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, continued his tour of China. A refreshed Clean Energy Partnership deal was signed, but neither side chose to make the document public.

5. Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, visited Washington D.C. to try and smooth issues in bilateral trade. The major sticking point ahead of a potential trade agreement is US anger over Britain’s digital tax regime; the White House views it as an unfair tax on its social media giants. To this end, Peter Mandleson, Britain’s Ambassador over the pond, penned an article in The Hill arguing that British and US collaboration on tech and AI could both ‘MEGA - Make our Economies Great Again,’ and help secure two leading democracies against other, unnamed (read China) countries getting superintelligence first.

6. Hamish Falconer, a Foreign Office Minister with a Middle East brief, visited New York to take part in a United Nations session on Syria. Britain recently announced sanctions changes and a large aid package to try and get the war-torn country back on its feet, although human rights violations over the past fortnight evidence how difficult this process will be.

7. Stephen Doughty, a Foreign Office Minister, spoke to Belarusian President-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

1. The AI Frontier

KEY POINTS:

• Britain wants to project its AI ambitions onto the global stage on business and geopolitical security fronts.

• Two senior officials delivered speeches on the same day arguing AI and AGI will be future-defining.

• AGI was identified as one of the three most pressing geopolitical issues of this era by the Foreign Secretary, the first time such an explicit analysis has been made.

As these briefing notes have often argued, to ignore the British Government’s artificial intelligence agenda is not merely to overlook a policy trend - it is to miss a cornerstone of how the UK is seeking to redefine its role in the world

Consider Thursday’s double-header: two of Whitehall’s most senior Cabinet ministers, Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle, delivered substantial speeches on separate continents. Mr Lammy addressed the British Chambers of Commerce in London, outlining a revamped commercial role for the Foreign Office. Mr Kyle, meanwhile, took to the stage at Nvidia’s GTC conference in San Jose, California, to court investors and present Britain as fertile ground for AI innovation.

Despite the distance and differing audiences, the message was strikingly aligned. Both ministers framed AI not merely as an economic opportunity but as a matter of national resilience. “AI will bring deep disruption to almost every aspect of life as we know it,” Mr Kyle warned, adding that “the legitimacy of the state is at stake.” Mr Lammy struck a similarly geopolitical note, declaring that AI would shape “not just our economic prospects, but our national security, our welfare state and the pace of our transition to a clean economy.”

In tone and substance, the speeches demonstrated a rare coherence in British strategic messaging. The rhetoric of “partnership” between state and business featured prominently in both. Mr Kyle called for “a partnership that is tailored to the needs of our economic era,” while Mr Lammy said simply: “We need to rediscover that partnership now.”

Mr Kyle’s remarks in San Jose were focused outward but anchored in domestic renewal. He spoke of transforming Britain’s “relics of economic eras past into AI Growth Zones,” large-scale developments combining access to power, data infrastructure, and investment incentives. His plan involves turning unused post-industrial sites into high-capacity data centres, with one location earmarked for “close to 2 GW” — gigawatts, a measure of electricity capacity, on a scale typically associated with national infrastructure.

Mr Lammy, for his part, set out what he sees as the three defining geopolitical forces of the age: the erosion of multilateral economic institutions, the resurgence of industrial activism, and the race to harness epoch-shaping technologies like AI. “Like it or not,” he said, “the laissez-faire approach to globalisation... is dead and buried.” The Foreign Office, he added, must become “the international delivery arm of this Government’s missions,” starting with economic growth.

To give that strategy institutional heft, Mr Lammy announced a raft of initiatives aimed at embedding business collaboration into the core of British diplomacy. From the next financial year, ambassadors in priority markets will be assessed not only on political engagement but also on their delivery of trade and investment wins. A new Lancaster House Business Engagement Series will convene quarterly meetings between senior diplomats and top UK firms, while ambassadors will be tasked with delivering annual regional roadshows to deepen ties with local industry. He also revealed the creation of a Geopolitical Impact Unit within the FCDO — a “one-stop shop” for businesses to access strategic insight and feed their own intelligence into government policymaking. As Mr Lammy put it: “Every successful CEO is a form of Foreign Secretary… the team around them know what it means to be diplomats.”

What emerges from these twin addresses is more than ministerial alignment. It is the articulation of a shared doctrine: that in the age of AI, Britain’s economic strength, geopolitical influence and technological capacity are not separate concerns, but mutually reinforcing priorities.

Leave a comment

2. PHILIPPINES JETCO

KEY POINTS:

• Britain and the Philippines upgraded their trade relationship with the innugural Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) meeting in London.

• The meeting covered the usual trade issues - agriculture, infrastrcuture - but also included a passing mention of artifical intelligence governance, a first.

• It follows sustained economic engagement between the two nations, with both choosing to institutionalise strategic dialogues within the last five years.

British-Filipino relations have entered a new phase of strategic engagement, marked by deepening cooperation across trade, security, and regional diplomacy. The relationship, long cordial but historically underweight, has gained fresh momentum in recent months through a series of high-level exchanges and tangible policy developments.

On Monday, British Minister for Trade Policy and Economic Security, Douglas Alexander, and the Philippines Department of Trade and Industry Undersecretary Allan B. Gepty inked a JETCO statement in London. The top line saw the pair commit to work closely over the next 12-18 months, including government-to-government and government-to-business activity “in agreed priority areas such as infrastructure, agriculture, energy, economic development, life sciences, and technology.” Opportunities in offshore renewable energy featured heavily in discussions. In a tangible breakthrough, the Philippines lifted bans on UK beef and poultry imports, which were previously imposed due to concerns over diseases. This removal is expected to boost UK meat exports by an estimated £80 million over the next five years. The country also represents the fourth-largest pork export market for British farmers.

The bilateral agenda, however, extends beyond commerce. Defence cooperation has been quietly but steadily intensifying. A five-year memorandum of understanding, concluded last year, aims to facilitate joint military training and maritime security exercises. The UK, a formal ASEAN Dialogue Partner, has reiterated its commitment to deepening regional engagement through both bilateral channels and multilateral forums. And following his diplomatic swing through East Asia, Foreign Secretary David Lammy paid an official visit to the Philippines last week, underscoring Britain's interest in Indo-Pacific affairs. In a move widely interpreted as a signal of solidarity, Mr Lammy delivered remarks aboard a Philippine Coast Guard vessel, voicing support for a “free and open South China Sea”; language carefully calibrated to resonate with Manila and its regional allies amid rising maritime tensions with China. His meeting with President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. further cemented the visit’s political significance.

Britain’s Ambassador to the Philippines, Laure Beaufils, has likewise been a consistent and visible presence, earning plaudits for her firm and frequent public statements in support of the Philippines’ maritime sovereignty, particularly in the face of increasingly assertive Chinese behaviour in contested waters.

Share

DEFENCE

• Keir Starmer and John Healey, the Defence Secretary, boarded a Vanguard Class submarine, which contains the nuclear deterrent, as it returned after months at sea.

• The Prime Minister delivered remarks to Permanent Joint Headquarters and military planners at Northwood.

• The first cohort of Royal Australian Navy Submariners have qualified to serve on Royal Navy nuclear submarines, part of the Royal Navy's commitment to AUKUS.

• Britain’s Ministry of Defence and the Armed Forces of Malta signed a Bilateral Cooperation Plan, formalising the longstanding defence relationship between the UK and Malta, and agreeing on cooperation for the future.

• Analysis by the House of Commons Library team found that between 2019 and 2024, the economic output of the shipbuilding sector increased by 72%. Over the same period, the economic output of the manufacturing sector overall declined by 1.4%.
  

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Keir Starmer spoke to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. He congratulated him “for his pivotal role in the US-led ceasefire talks in Jeddah last week. Both leaders agreed that securing a just a lasting peace is in everyone’s interest, and they both looked forward to seeing progress as talks resume on Sunday.”

• David Lammy hosted Igli Hasani, the Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs of Albania, in London. Talks focused on strengthening bilateral ties and creating more opportunities for British investment in Albania.

• Mr Lammy also spoke to Azerbaijan Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov to congratulate him on the recent news about the peace agreement text between Azerbaijan and Armenia. He met Radosław Sikorski, Poland’s Minister for Foreign Affairs.

• Douglas Alexander, the Economic Security and Trade Minister, met the Ukrainian Ambassador, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, “to reaffirm our solidarity with Ukraine.”

• Kemi Badenoch, the Leader of the Opposition, spoke to Gideon Sa’ar, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the State of Israel. Mr Sa’ar “thanked her for her party’s firm support and moral stance regarding Israel and invited her to visit Israel.”

• This week saw the first visit of a Mongolian Speaker to the United Kingdom to hold talks with his counterpart, the Speaker of the House of Commons.

SANCTIONS

• Britain released data in the OFSI’s Annual Review on the full effect of UK sanctions on Russia, with over £25 billion of Russian assets reported frozen.

SOFT POWER AND AID

• Prince William has visited Estonia to support UK troops in what is now the British Army's biggest operational deployment overseas, defending the Baltic state from the threat of Russia.

• Baroness Jenny Chapman, the Minister for International Development, met Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

• A Ghanaian delegation arrived as part of the UK-Ghana Healthcare Roadshow.
  

TRADE & BUSINESS

• Peter Kyle, the Science and Technology Secretary, took a ride in a driverless Waymo car in San Fran alongside Peter Mandelson, the British Ambassador.

• Japan’s Mitsui Fudosan announces it will invest £1.1bn to expand the British Library.

• Guyana's Ministry of Health inked a US$3.3 million agreement with the UK-headquartered Riomed Limited to establish an electronic health records system.

WESTERN BALKANS

KEY POINTS:

• Karen Pierce started her new role UK Special Envoy to the Western Balkans.

• The region is a focus for Britain, particular with regard to tackling irregular immigration.

This week, Karen Pierce, an accomplished diplomat and former British Ambassador to Washington, assumed her new role as the UK’s Special Envoy to the Western Balkans. Her appointment marks a calculated shift in London’s approach to a region that, while often peripheral in Whitehall’s strategic calculus, remains an arena of mounting geopolitical significance and latent volatility.

The UK has long viewed the Western Balkans as geopolitically important, but recent developments have heightened its relevance. Factors such as irregular migration (a significant issue for Labour), regional stability, and shifting U.S. engagement drive this renewed focus. On the global geopolitical macro, as Baroness Arminka Helić recently noted in Politico, the region remains a battleground for Russian and Chinese influence, a transit hub for organised crime and illegal migration, and a potential flashpoint in an increasingly unstable Europe.

Politically, the UK, and especially the Labour Party, has maintained strong credibility in Kosovo and, to a lesser extent, in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008, remains one of Britain’s closest regional allies. This stems in part from former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s leading role in NATO’s intervention against Serbian forces in 1999. In BiH, the UK has played a key role in post-war reconstruction and institutional stability, reinforcing its commitment to the country’s sovereignty.

However, the geopolitical landscape remains precarious. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reinforced the strategic necessity of engaging with Serbia while maintaining strong alliances elsewhere in the region. A diminished U.S. presence in the Western Balkans would be destabilising, as the region remains fraught with unresolved ethnic tensions and reliant on international security mechanisms.

Kosovo, for instance, faces ongoing tensions due to its Serb minority, which looks to Belgrade rather than Pristina. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has escalated rhetoric, falsely claiming ethnic cleansing against Serbs in Kosovo, which complicates British diplomatic efforts. Meanwhile, Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority entity in BiH, has become a focal point of instability. Its leader, Milorad Dodik, was recently convicted for secessionist activities, prompting the EU to bolster its EUFOR mission in the country. There is growing concern that Serbia could exploit the situation, especially as Vučić faces mounting domestic unrest.

Trump figures continue to influence the region’s dynamics. Richard Grenell, former U.S. envoy to the Western Balkans and now Presidential Envoy for Special Missions, remains an outspoken supporter of Serbia, raising concerns in Pristina, Sarajevo, and other regional capitals.

Albania, while largely insulated from the ethnic and territorial tensions defining the Western Balkans’ geopolitical landscape, remains pivotal in Britain’s security and economic considerations. London’s intensified crackdown on organised crime networks has shone a spotlight on Albania’s role as a key transit hub for illicit activities, including narcotics trafficking and human smuggling into Western Europe. This week, Igli Hasani, Albania’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, engaged in high-level discussions with Foreign Secretary David Lammy, an interaction that underscores the growing importance of Anglo-Albanian cooperation in security and economic affairs.

The question, then, is not whether Britain should engage, but how it can deploy its diplomatic and strategic assets with maximal efficacy. This in turn led to the creation of the upcoming Western Balkans Summit, taking place later this year, and run by Ms Pierce. If executed astutely, Britain’s recalibrated engagement with the region could serve as a blueprint for its broader foreign policy ambitions in a world increasingly defined by geopolitical fluidity and strategic competition.

Share

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run for fun in my free time.

Hello,

In earlier eras, alliances and power dynamics among nations revolved around traditional levers of influence - natural resources, military and technology capabilities, a complex understanding of national character and interests. Today, a new factor is decisively reshaping international relations: artificial intelligence, and the vast computational machinery underpinning it. Britain, groping in the dark, is beginning to feel the contours of shapes it can’t quite recognise yet. But progress is underway.

Today, powerful states strategise about how to utilise artificial intelligence as an instrument of self-preservation, power and influence. They bid to attract frontier AI labs, cutting-edge chips, and fabs. They understand the need to view this as a key strategic pillar, an entire stack. This week, China’s top economic officials vowed to set up a state-backed fund to support technological innovation, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology and hydrogen energy storage. Indeed, AI now shapes not only economic and technological landscapes, but increasingly how countries engage with each other, bilaterally or in blocs.

Consider, for instance, Britain’s current relationship with the United States. The ‘Special Relationship’, historically anchored in at least a pretence of shared values and strategic collaboration, now manifests itself as more transactional; a constant conversation around ‘here’s what we have to offer, if you do this in return,’ and one in which one side has more leverage. In this scenario, AI finds new impetus. British diplomats are making considerable efforts to get a trade agreement over the line by dangling frontier AI collaboration, privately playing to Washington’s fears that another country might reach supremacy first. Cooperation in artificial intelligence is increasingly perceived not merely as a technological collaboration but as an opportunity to reinforce and deepen broader diplomatic ties. Is it ugly? Perhaps. Is it working? We shall soon see.

Amara's Law states that we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run. So a warning: those who overlook the geopolitical reverberations of AI risk misunderstanding the critical movements reshaping the global order at this exact moment.

This project passed 4,000 followers on Monday, and around 12,000 views a month. Thank you for your kind feedback and ideas.

— Sam Hogg

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, spoke to President of the United States, Donald Trump. The call took place ahead of US and Ukrainian delegates meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss ceasefire terms in Ukraine. Following the gathering, Mr Starmer published a statement of support.

2. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, visited the Philippines. It marked the second leg of his Eastern journey, having arrived from Japan. Mr Lammy then flew to Canada for a G7 meeting.

3. John Healey, the Defence Secretary, visited France. He was in Paris with a military attache to discuss pressing defence matters.

4. Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, began a days-long visit to China. Per Politico, the trip is all about overhauling relations on energy, and Mr Miliband is expected to come away from the trip having penned a new clean energy partnership to replace the old one signed back in 2015 and an MoU on climate.

5. Catherine West, the Indo Pacific Minister, visited Malaysia and Brunei. Among other outings, she oversaw the signing of an MoU between two semiconductor firms.

6. Lord Collins, Minister for Africa and the UN, visited New York. At the UN Security Council meeting on Sudan, he announced that Britain will convene Foreign Ministers in London to help end the conflict and to improve the humanitarian response in Sudan.

7. Stephen Doughty, a Foreign Office Minister, held an Aurora Forum roundtable with Nordic and Baltic countries on security and defence matters.

Noted

Images from Chinese social media began circulating on global platforms this week showing three Chinese vessels combined together, rolling out a landing bridge. Analysts noted the images with one eye on Taiwan.

1. Ukraine, USA, and Britain’s Plan for Change

KEY POINTS:

• Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed the next stage of talks between Ukraine and the United States. In a phonecall in the hours before the meeting in Riydah, he stated he hoped for a positive outcome, and offered cautious praise for the readout.

• British interlocators had been engaging with Ukrainian officials ahead of the meeting, including the National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell.

• Britain is keen to secure a trade agreement with the United States, and views its technology - AI particularly - as one point of leverage.

Britain’s relationship with the United States continues to consume significant bandwidth in Westminster. At a macro level, Downing Street is driven by three issues.

Ukraine: The British Government, along with France, is trying to keep the US engaged in the ongoing situation, pushing for Washington to serve as a “backstop” for a European military force on the ground. Despite fawning British press coverage, it’s not yet clear how much influence Prime Minister Keir Starmer has over any of President Donald Trump’s key decisions around Ukraine. Mr Trump seems uninterested in many of the proposals put forward by the continent, including those on the joint ticket of Mr Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron. Like the rest of Europe, both have been relegated to observer status: neither was invited to Saudi Arabia this week to help Ukraine in negotiations, although Mr Starmer offered support for the initial readout. From Moscow’s point of view, a ceasefire at the moment is more advantageous to Ukraine than itself: Russia will have a stronger hand in the summer as American aid dries up.

Growth: “The number one priority for this Government is the growth of the UK economy." Did that quote come from a transcript of a recent speech by the Chancellor? No. It came from a press release about Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s visit to Canada for the G7 Foreign Ministers gathering this week. As noted several times previously, Mr Starmer views a weak economy as an issue of national security. Economic growth is therefore a major domestic and foreign policy priority, and consequently, high on new Ambassador Peter Mandelson’s agenda is getting a trade deal signed off with the United States (and avoiding various tariffs in the process). Mr Mandelson has been pitching the concept of MEGA - Make (our) Economies Great Again - and seems to view tech and AI as principal drivers. In return, the United States may look to halt the UK’s efforts to hedge on certain technology issues (think Apple), and will likely want to see a more lax regulation environment than in Europe.

Britain - along with every other nation, as pointed out by Australia’s Ambassador to the United States and former Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd - failed to get what they wanted out of US tariffs on imported steel this week. The Government’s view is a softly softly approach works best, although MPs and various parts of the commentariat were unimpressed. The majority of the latter two groups said almost nothing of importance while Britain gutted its steel industry over the last decade, with no outside help from Washington.

Liberal International Order: It is still not clear to Downing Street when and why Mr Trump follows through on some of his many statements, and therefore what impact America will have on the international order over the next half decade. As Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs Hal Brands argued in a recent Foreign Affairs piece, “Trump could succeed at today’s more limited and more vital undertaking: upholding a balance of power that preserves that order’s essential achievements against Eurasian aggressors determined to tear them down. The problem is that this will require Trump to consistently channel his best geopolitical instincts when he will be sorely tempted to follow his most destructive ones instead.”

What are Mr Trump’s aims beyond bringing ‘ceasefire’ to various ongoing conflicts around the world? How does he reconcile this with his ongoing plans to annex Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal? How does America First sit with the international rules-based order? Consider just one major issue: defence. As an effort to build resilience into the system, Britain and European counterparts have begun efforts to rebuild their defences: this will take many years and will require both smarter mobilisation of capital and proper procurement reform. Britain’s capabilities are limited, as are those in France and Germany. So do they increase their exposure to America in the short term by purchasing more goods from Washington? As Mr Brands concludes: “The potential upside of Trump’s presidency is substantial. The potential downside is an abyss.”

2. South China Sea diplomacy

• Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited the Philippines.

• He met Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo, and Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. to discuss enhancing cooperation in areas such as defense, regional security, trade, and climate action.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy spent 48 hours in Manila on a flyover visit on his return from Tokyo. The primary takeaway from this visit was the signing of the Philippines-UK Joint Framework, which builds on an enhanced partnership deal the pair signed in 2021, covering defence and other critical sectors. The other set piece involved Mr Lammy meeting the Filipino Coast Guard, and filming a video on one of their vessels criticising the Chinese government’s behaviour in the South China Sea.

Trade between both nations has grown steadily: the first Joint Economic Committee (JETCO) meeting between the pair will take place later this month in London, upgrading the economic cooperation dialogue. Given the British firms investing in the Philippines - Unilever, Shell, HSBC, Standard Chartered, AstraZeneca and so on - and based on past discussions, it seems likely the JETCO will cover market access and similar initiatives. On the defence front, the Philippines have looked to Britain for support on wider issues in the South China Sea, and HMS Spey, the Royal Navy’s offshore vessel, visited the Philippines twice last year.

A readout of the bilateral meeting with Minister for Foreign Affairs Enrique A. Manalo noted the Filipino Minister “expressed appreciation for the UK's statement of support for the Philippines against coercive actions in the SCS”, and that “Secretary Lammy reaffirmed the UK's commitment to the Philippines and to a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

In the hours after Mr Lammy returned home, the Filipino government announced former President Rodrigo Duterte had been arrested in Manila, facing extradition to The Hague for his role in the country’s crackdown on drugs. Mr Duterte’s premiership had represented an awkwardness for British diplomatic engagement: a previous visit by then-Trade Minister Liam Fox was widely condemned.

3. Malaysia and Brunei

KEY POINTS:

• Catherine West, the Minister for the Indo Pacific, visited South East Asia.

• In Malaysia, the Minister met counterparts including Minister for Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability Nik Nazmi and Deputy Minister Liew Chin Tong. Many of the meetings had strong emphasis on environmental collaboration.

• In Brunei, the Minister met Finance Minister II, Dato Amin, and Foreign Minister II, YB Dato Erywan, for the 4th Strategic Dialogue.

• In London, the Attorney General hosted Malaysian Law Minister, Y.B Azalina and a delegation.

A two-stage visit to the South East Asian region saw Catherine West, Minister for the Indo Pacific, re-emphasise Britain’s commitment to Indo-Pacific security, and double down on climate diplomacy.

Mrs West’s visit to Malaysia - the first since taking on the portfolio - followed in the shadow of the recently held inaugural ministerial-led Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) meeting between the two nations. Beyond Commonwealth celebrations, the visit had a strong tech angle: a portion of her trip involved witnessing the signing of an MoU between two semiconductor firms, and the Minister’s press release noted technology as an area where “we can and must develop together”. The Minister also reiterated the UK’s support for Malaysia’s chairmanship of ASEAN. Other activities focused on British support for climate initiatives in the region.

In Brunei, the Minister took part in the fourth Strategic Dialogue between the two nations. The third, hosted in London last year shortly after the 40-year anniversary of diplomatic relations between the pair, saw the then-Sunak government discussing key areas of cooperation, including trade, security, climate change, and education. Little appears to have changed on the agenda items this time around beyond the location. In comments to local media, Mrs West added “This is my first official visit to Brunei, one of the UK’s closest partners in the Indo-Pacific. Our bilateral links are closer than ever, with the recent establishment of a free trade deal and a renewed commitment from Brunei to host our permanent military base in Brunei for the next five years. It’s a symbol of the importance of the UK-Brunei relationship to economic growth and to regional security.”

Leave a comment

UN SECURITY COUNCIL

• In a statement at the UN Security Council, Britain called for greater international action to tackle widespread sexual violence in Sudan. The UK reaffirmed its commitment to addressing the crisis, highlighting its support for survivors through funding sexual and reproductive health services, safe spaces, and mobile clinic treatment.

• In a statement at the UN Security Council, Britain highlighted the importance of EU-UN cooperation in addressing global crises and maintaining international peace and security. The UK praised the EU’s support for Ukraine, including economic, humanitarian, and military assistance, and reaffirmed its commitment to working with the EU for a just and lasting peace. The statement also acknowledged the EU’s role in stabilisation efforts in the Western Balkans, the Middle East, Syria, Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Britain welcomed the EU’s participation in the upcoming ministerial discussions in London on the Sudan crisis and looked forward to strengthening multilateral collaboration to address global challenges.

• In a statement at the UN Security Council, Britain unequivocally condemned the Taliban’s ban on girls’ education in Afghanistan and other restrictions on women’s rights. The UK called for the immediate reversal of these oppressive measures and supported efforts to hold the Taliban accountable, including referring Afghanistan to the International Court of Justice for violations of CEDAW.
  

DEFENCE

• The British Government established the National Security Unit for Procurement (NSUP) within the Cabinet Office to oversee and enforce new national security provisions under the Procurement Act 2023, which took effect on 24 February 2025. This will have a direct impact on economic security.

• Britain announced a £2 billion increase to UK Export Finance’s Direct Lending capacity for defence.

• The Ministry of Defence (MoD) will launch a new hub to help SMEs access defence contracts and set direct SME spending targets by June 2025. Currently, only 4% of defence spending goes to SMEs, prompting the government to increase support. The investment is expected to create new jobs, strengthen the UK’s defence supply chain, and drive innovation in the sector.

• Vice Admiral Edward Ahlgren, UK Defence Senior Advisor to the Middle East and North Africa (DSAME), ended a two-day visit to Lebanon where he met with senior Lebanese and UN officials.
  

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, is in Charlevoix, Canada for the G7 Foreign Ministerial Meeting. He will attend eight sessions, focusing on Ukraine, the Indo-Pacific, the Americas, the Middle East, Africa, and maritime security. The UK and France will co-lead the session on support for Ukraine, and the Foreign Secretary will look to galvanise the G7 around peace through strength for Ukraine.

• David Lammy hosted Kęstutis Budrys, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania.

• Stephen Doughty, Foreign Office Minister, hosted Canadian Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs Bob Oliphont.

• Angela Eagle, Minister of State at the Home Office, hosted Indian High Commissioner Vikram Doraiswami for talks on immigration.

SANCTIONS

• Britain expelled a Russian diplomat and their partner in the latest tit-for-tat series of moves between the two nations.

SOFT POWER

• HRH The Prince of Wales will be visiting Estonia for the first time next week.
  

TRADE & BUSINESS

• A British electric vehicles delegation, comprising six innovative SMEs specialising in fleet telematics, battery energy storage systems, AI, IoT-based cybersecurity and modular decentralized generators, visited India this week.

AID

• Britain will convene Foreign Ministers in London in April to help end the conflict in Sudan and to improve the humanitarian response.

DIPLOMATS

• Martin Longden, Ambassador to Libya, met the country’s Prime Minister.

China Energy talks

KEY POINTS

• Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, begins a visit to China today, the first Energy Secretary to do so since 2017.

• “Pragmatic cooperation with China will help keep British people safe from the climate crisis, as UK and Chinese ministers are set to meet in Beijing for the first formal talks to accelerate climate action in nearly 8 years," read the press release.

• He will meet with China’s National Energy Administrator Minister Wang Hongzhi and China’s Ecology and Environment Minister Huang Runqiu in Beijing.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband’s visit to Beijing marks the first formal climate dialogue between the UK and China in nearly eight years, underscoring Britain’s renewed engagement with the world’s largest emitter. To pre-empt the usual criticism, in accompanying Guardian op-ed Mr Miliband stated “on my visit I will be in the business of challenge as well as cooperation, raising issues including forced labour in supply chains, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and human rights in Hong Kong. But disagreement cannot be an excuse for disengagement.”

The timing is significant: global temperatures hit record highs in 2024, and China had experienced 28 consecutive days above 35°C in Beijing last summer. China remains the largest investor in renewable energy but continues to emit more than the US, EU, India, and the UK combined. In the Government’s view, with extreme weather events escalating - from floods in the UK submerging thousands of acres of farmland to record heat-related deaths - re-engagement with China on climate cooperation is as much about British national security as it is about global emissions reductions.

The Energy Secretary plans to refresh an outdated 10-year-old UK Clean Energy Partnership with China. Per the press release, this “will now provide clarity on areas where the UK government can securely collaborate with China on areas of mutual benefit – such as new emerging technologies, including hydrogen and carbon capture and storage.” In terms of leverage, Britain is apparently going to share expertise on phasing out coal, having closed its last coal-fired power station last year.

At the heart of the UK’s energy debate is the question of technological dependence and security. Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove’s recent comments in The Times highlight the unease within security circles, warning that Britain’s net-zero ambitions risk “handing power to Beijing.” The Financial Times likewise reported recently that MI5 was looking into Chinese green technology.

Share

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run for fun in my free time.

Hello,

As America’s involvement in World War II appeared ever more certain, Congress allocated $10.5 billion to strengthen U.S. military bases and equipment. Sitting in Washington D.C., a hitherto unknown Senator from Missouri became immensely displeased with the defence establishment’s close relationship with companies and procurement. This World War I veteran, a keen defender of America’s liberties and values, decided to embark on a 10,000-mile drive to see for himself how the newly allocated money was being spent.

Returning to his trip to Washington in 1941, the Senator immediately proposed the creation of a Committee to scrutinise the deals being made. Congress agreed, and the ‘Senate Special Committee to Investigate the National Defense Program’ was created, with a remit to investigate “the procurement and construction of supplies, materials, munitions, vehicles, aircraft, vessels, plants, camps, and other articles and facilities in connection with the national defense.”

Given a modest $15,000 initially, by the autumn of that year, the Committee had identified projects that could be slashed to the tune of $250 million. Its budget was raised to $50,000. By the end of its short seven-year existence, the Committee was credited with returning between $10 and 15 billion to the Government coffers, saving thousands of lives by uncovering defective equipment and materials that were to be used by troops, and shortening WWII by streamlining federal contracting practices.

As Britain prepares to dramatically increase its defence expenditure while reforming its procurement, ambitious British politicians could learn a thing or two from how Harry Truman ran his Committee. Against political headwinds, he pushed for transparency and honesty. Ignoring the risk to his own career, he travelled to the source, and called it as he saw it. As noted by the Levin Centre, when stacked on top of each other, the evidence records collected by the Truman Committee tower 775 feet. With spending set to increase, diligent MPs should scrutinise where the money is going and how the Ministry of Defence is utilising it, without fear or favour: doing so is in the best interests of Britain.

As President Truman would say: “There is no substitute for facts.”

— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, convened European and other Western leaders in London for a gathering aimed at shoring up support for Ukraine in light of a bruising visit to the White House. The defence situation changed rapidly over the week. Mr Starmer delivered a speech at the first annual UK-Ireland Summit. His words had a strong focus on energy security. He also hosted India’s External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar, who also met with other prominent British politicians before delivering comments at Chatham House.

2. John Healey, the Defence Secretary, visited the United States and met his counterpart Pete Hegseth.

3. David Lammy and Jonathan Reynolds, the Foreign and Business and Trade Secretaries respectively, visited Japan. Mr Lammy was set to travel on to the Philippines. Mr Lammy also joined calls with his European counterparts to discuss the evolving Ukrainian situation, and hosted his Nigerian and Indian counterparts in London. Mr Reynolds spoke to his US counterpart, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, about possible tariffs on Britain’s steel.

4. Baroness Jenny Chapman, the newly promoted International Development Minister, visited Uruguay. She attended the inauguration of Yamandú Orsi.

5. Hamish Falconer, Minister for the Middle East and North Africa, visited Turkey.

6. Gareth Thomas, Minister for Services, Small Businesses and Exports, visited Morocco. He met Minister for Investment Karim Zidane.

7. Britain announced further collaboration on halting illegal immigration with both Iraq and Vietnam.

8. Mélanie Joly, the Canadian Foreign Minister, revealed to the BBC that she told Mr Lammy, National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell and Downing Street aide Morgan McSweeney that President Donald Trump is serious about annexing Canada. Readers will recall Ms Joly was recently in London.

9. The Foreign Affairs Committee visited Saudi Arabia.

1. Defence and Ukraine

This will not be a long section on Ukraine, European defence and diplomacy, or the White House. The situation develops too rapidly to add meaningful value beyond what any analyst or policymaker can read in the papers, and many who claim to know what the ‘inside track’ is seem to be disproven on an hour-by-hour basis. A key overview is provided below.

KEY POINTS:

• Prime Minister Keir Starmer spent the week trying to mediate between the United States, Europe, and Ukraine. Mr Starmer had to content with insults and threats flying back and forth, and a request from the U.S. to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine.

• The Government’s strategic communications have gone heavy on defence-related issues. Mr Starmer hosted defence companies and their apprentices in Downing Street for a choreographed event, discussing how the new defence posture will benefit job creation.

• Comments made by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance caused deep upset in Westminster. John Healey, the Defence Secretary, visited Washington DC to meet his US counterpart Pete Hegseth.

2. Migration

KEY POINTS:

• While foreign policy bandwidth again focused primarily on Ukraine, Britain made clinical moves to stamp down on illegal or irregular migration this week.

• Distribution of anti-migration propaganda began in Iraq following a senior visit, and a deal with Vietnam was signed targetting people smugglers.

• India’s top diplomat also discuss the issue in a conversation with Home Secretary Yvette Cooper in London.

Like every government before them for the last three decades, Labour’s election-winning manifesto promised to clamp down on illegal immigration and reduce net migration. Its efforts to reduce the former have seen collaboration across Downing Street, the Home Office, and the Foreign Office: HQ, downstream, and upstream. That in turn has manifested itself in what Britain asks for from its partners and adversaries around the world.

Last week, Britain’s Border Security Commander, Martin Hewitt, visited Iraq and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) to progress migration-focused agreements reached between the Federal Government of Iraq and the UK Government in November [analysis here]. A key action from Mr Hewitt’s trip was the rollout of a new video campaign to try and dissuade migrants making the journey, following in the footsteps of similar campaigns used in Vietnam and Albania.  From 2018 to 2024, over 150,000 people arrived in the UK illegally, and the Government is working on new legislation to try and increase its ability to act.

Across the other side of the continent, a joint communique between Viet Nam and Britain further hammered home the action taken to disrupt illegal immigration. Signed at the third annual UK-Vietnam Migration Dialogue in Hanoi, it included a series of committments to both stop illegal migration and speed up the process of returning those who arrived without the right permissions.

In a similar manner to how almost any geopolitical announcement to do with financials finds itself shoehorned into a diplomatic press release under the Government’s ‘Plan for Growth’ mantra, countering illegal immigration sits under its ‘Plan for Change.’ To this end, India’s influential top diplomat Dr S Jaishankar was in town. Meetings with the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary saw discussions on issues from AI to Ukraine, but a one-on-one with Home Secretary Yvette Cooper specifically raised “the flow of talent, people to people exchanges, and joint efforts in tackling trafficking and extremism.”

3. Japan engagement

KEY POINTS

• The Foreign and Trade Secretaries David Lammy and Jonathan Reynolds flew to Japan for the Japan-UK Economic 2+2 Ministers’ Meeting with counterparts Takeshi Iwaya and Yoji Muto.

• Britain is the only country other than America to hold this form of meeting with Japan.

• The main meeting saw discussions on "key issues facing both countries in areas where diplomacy, security and the economy overlap…specifically…. economic security, energy security, promotion of free and open international trade and third-country cooperation, including the Global South."

How should the world's fourth and sixth largest economies interpret the actions of its first and second? That, among other issues, is what Foreign and Trade Secretaries David Lammy and Jonathan Reynolds are discussing with their Japanese counterparts as this note goes to press. The ‘2+2’ format marks the first time a country other than America - which helped recreate a post WWII Japan - has been given the honour, and should be seen as further evidence of tightening relations begun during the first Trump era.

In a letter to Japan’s leading paper, Mr Lammy set out why this was the opportune moment for closer ties. “This is a chance for the U.K. and Japan to work even closer together on shared challenges at the interface of geopolitics and geoeconomics”, he argued. Defence relations are going from strength to strength, with the Carrier Strike Group arriving in Japan later this year, and the landmark Global Combat Air Programme with Italy progressing nicely. Both nations are free trading, open market economies, sharing a CPTPP partnership and economic strategies around clean energy. In a shared press conference, Mr Lammy added that Japan could help the Ukraine crisis by ramping up pressure on Russia’s economy.

Of particular interest was the emphasis Mr Lammy’s letter, and stressed in the Government’s press release, was artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. The latter stated “In Tokyo the Foreign Secretary and Business and Trade Secretary will host an AI business reception to promote the UK’s AI Opportunities Action Plan and discuss with Japanese AI leaders the scope for new growth opportunities between British and Japanese AI.” Recent collaboration in this space has included the Japan-UK Quantum Technologies for Innovation, where the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and the UK's Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) launched a joint call for proposals to support collaborative research projects in quantum technologies, and Britain’s ORCA Computing and Japan's Jij Inc. announcing a strategic partnership to advance quantum computing technology.

Naturally, these were echoed in the UK-Japan strategic economic policy and trade dialogue – joint statement which followed on Friday. It also featured joint concerns about “non-market policies and practices including harmful industrial subsidies, market-distortive practices of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and forced technology transfer, as well as harmful non-market excess capacity and other market distortions resulting from them.” No prizes for what nation that’s referring to.

Leave a comment

UN SECURITY COUNCIL

• In a statement at the UN Security Council, Britain said the unanimous adoption of the resolution sent a clear message of unity in supporting Somalia's fight against Al-Shabaab. The resolution retained robust sanctions aimed at disrupting Al-Shabaab's finances, enhancing international collaboration, and aiding Somalia in strengthening its own capabilities. It also highlighted concerns about weapon flows from Yemen to Somalia and the destabilising activities of the Houthis.

• In a statement at the UN Security Council, Britain said it fully supported the UN's decision to pause humanitarian operations in Saada following the detention of aid workers and the death of a World Food Programme staff member in Houthi captivity. The UK condemned these actions and called for the unconditional release of all detainees. Additionally, the UK expressed concern over violations of the arms embargo, citing the interdiction of advanced weapon components reportedly destined for Hodeida port, and urged all member states to comply with the embargo to achieve lasting peace in Yemen.
  

DEFENCE

• Britain announced a £65 million contract with CGI UK to develop 'Borealis', a UK-made command, control, and data processing system. This system will enhance the UK's ability to monitor and protect military satellites by compiling and processing data from multiple sources more efficiently. The five-year contract will support approximately 100 skilled jobs in Leatherhead, Reading, and Bristol, thereby boosting the UK's space capabilities.

• The UK's SKYNET 6A military communications satellite completed its initial testing phase at the National Satellite Test Facility in Harwell, Oxfordshire. Scheduled for launch in 2026, SKYNET 6A will enhance secure communications for UK and allied forces, supporting various military operations across all domains. This project sustains 550 highly skilled jobs across the UK, including in Stevenage, Corsham, and Portsmouth.

• Maria Eagle, Minister of State for Defence Procurement and Industry, emphasised the need for Europe to enhance its defence industrial capabilities, highlighted the UK's commitment to increasing defence spending to 2.5% by 2027 and 3% in the next parliament, and underscored the pivotal role of UK-France cooperation in strengthening European security

• Britain signed a £30 million contract with leading US firm Anduril to supply advanced attack drones to Ukraine, aiming to bolster Ukraine's defences against Russian aggression in the Black Sea. The Altius 600m and 700m drones, known as loitering munitions, are designed to monitor areas before striking targets.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Britain, alongside France and Germany, expressed deep concern over Israel's decision to halt all goods and supplies into Gaza, emphasizing that such actions could violate international humanitarian law. They called on Israel to fulfill its international obligations by ensuring the rapid, safe, and unhindered provision of humanitarian assistance to Gaza's population, including essential items like medical equipment and water and sanitation supplies. They also stressed that humanitarian aid should never be contingent on a ceasefire or used as a political tool.

• Britain, along with Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, the United States, and the European Union, condemned the hostilities in Upper Nile State, expressed concern over the detention of senior officials, and called for an immediate cessation of violence, urging Juba-based leaders to commit to peaceful dialogue and prioritise the interests of the South Sudanese people.

• William Ruto, Kenya’s President, met Britain’s High Commissioner and stated "The United Kingdom remains one of Kenya’s key strategic partners."

• Catherine West, the Indo-Pacific Minister, congratulated the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) on its 28th anniversary, highlighting its role in ensuring a secure, resilient, and prosperous Indian Ocean. She reaffirmed the UK's commitment to cooperating with and supporting the IORA Secretariat as a dialogue partner.

SANCTIONS

• Britain lifted asset freezes on 24 Syrian entities, including the Central Bank of Syria, Syrian Arab Airlines, and energy companies, to support Syria's economic reconstruction and political transition. Sanctions on Assad regime members and those involved in the captagon trade remained in place

SOFT POWER

• Britain recently completed communications training for Solomon Islands political staff.

TRADE & ECONOMY

• British businesses are bullish on Taiwan. Ruth Bradley-Jones, Representative at the British Office Taipei, and Martin Kent, His Majesty’s Trade Commissioner for Asia Pacific currently visiting Taiwan, announced the latest 2024-25 British Business Survey results at an event hosted by the British Chamber of Commerce in Taipei.

AI AND EMERGING TECH

• Jenny Chapman, the Minister for International Development, discussed how Uruguay is using AI to tackle illegal fishing.
  

ENERGY

• Rachel Kyte, the UK’s Special Representative for Climate, emphasised the UK’s ongoing support for South Africa’s energy transition through the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP).

AID

• The UK's Just Transitions for Water Security Programme (JTWS) is a four-year, £39 million initiative aimed at enhancing global collaboration on water resource management and climate resilience. This week, the JTWS team explored Morocco as a potential partner, engaging with key ministries, the private sector, and academia to accelerate progress towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).​

DIPLOMATS

• Jane Marriott, High Commissioner to Pakistan, met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

• Giles Portman, Ambassador to Romania, discussed foreign, security, and defence cooperation with Foreign Minister Hurezeanu, focusing on support for Europe, NATO, and Ukraine. He also spoke with Education & Research Minister David about a broad programme of engagement, including collaboration through the British Council.

• Adnan Qadir Khan, the Foreign Office’s Chief Economist, was in the Caribbean.

UAE

KEY POINTS

• Security Minister Dan Jarvis and Economic Secretary to the Treasury Emma Reynolds visited the United Arab Emirates last week

• Mr Jarvis sought to strengthen policing ties, while Ms Reynolds focused on dual listing issues

• The wider bilateral has gone through a recent rough patch, primarily thanks to perceived slights against the UAE by British policymakers.

• One area worth scrutinising going forward will be the UK’s ability to compete or collaborate with UAE’s AI vision

Labour’s constrained fiscal rulemaking has meant looking beyond Europe for new sources of investment and trade. One such area, as noted in several previous Telegrams, is the Gulf. Senior ministers visit Saudi Arabia at a pace of at least once every eight weeks, and Qatar has witnessed its fair share of officials too, not least because of its ongoing role as a convening power for ceasefire talks in Gaza.

Receiving less attention is the United Arab Emirates. Like Saudi and Qatar, the UAE can trace close diplomatic and economic relations with Britain to its founding just over half a century ago. Like its two peers, the small nation has invested substantially in many of Britain’s key sectors.

Two ongoing sticking points upset the Emirates. First, politicians made a scene around a UAE-linked bid to buy the right-wing newspaper The Telegraph, which ultimately saw the deal blocked. Presented as a win for media freedom, it was viewed in the eyes of some observers as an unnecessary and unjustified politicisation of a process that was meant to be acutely apolitical. Second, the UK’s criticisms of the ongoing atrocities in Sudan shone on awkward light on the Emirates, which is alleged to be aiding one of the groups committing appalling abuses, the Rapid Support Forces.

Regardless, under Labour, efforts are being made to shore up economic and security links once more. On her first foreign trip in her new role, Emma Reynolds, the Economic Secretary to the Treasury, recently told the UAE’s national paper that she was keen to see more companies dual listing between both nations’ stock exchanges, and praised already existing FDI. This echoes efforts underway by the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX), which has been actively encouraging dual listings.

Also speaking to The National during his time in the Emirates was Dan Jarviss, the Security Minister. Mr Jarvis noted collaboration between UK and UAE law enforcement and banks would be critical to shutting off the supply of illicit finances. Given the amount of capital flowing between both regions, Britain and the UAE have worked closely on tracking and monitoring financial issues in the past.

Going forward on Britain-UAE bilateral ties, it seems Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s focus on Sudan (a conference is in the works) will increase the likelihood of issues around Emirati support for the RSF being an issue. This has already raised issues at the United Nations under the previous government.

The second area worth noting is that the UAE, like other forward thinking governments, is strategising and investing heavily around artificial intelligence. In the first instance, it’s aiming for 20% of its non-oil GDP to come from AI by 2031. Notably, according to recent CSIS analysis, the UAE accepts US export controls but is frustrated by its classification alongside countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan; Britain sits in the highest classification tier. As countries seek to become AI sovereign, this could be an area of friction, or perhaps collaboration.

Share

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run for fun in my free time.

Hello,

In August 1969, Lee Kaun Yew set out to deliver a speech taking stock of the situation his nation faced. Singapore’s first Prime Minister was a decade into his role, and the world around his small, new, developing country was in flux. He knew that while some decisions he made now would be instantly impactful, the success or failure of others would be measured in decades, increasing or damaging the probability of Singapore’s survival.

1969 was one of the years that come around every century and seem to condense an entire era into a handful of days. The Beatles had just played their first public concert, and Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, and The Who would shortly play at Woodstock. A month prior, the first human being had set foot on the moon. The Cold War was in motion, playing out through proxies across Africa and Lee’s neighbourhood, South East Asia. America, which had just passed $1.006 trillion in GDP, had troops on the ground in Vietnam and would experience its deadliest year in the entire conflict, with newly minted President Richard Nixon declaring Vietnamization to be in action. Across the border, Mao Zedong was years into the Cultural Revolution, leaving millions dead and his nation’s finances in tatters. Britain, where Lee had spent his latter years being educated, was about to enter a decades-long conflict in Northern Ireland, and was struggling with high inflation, slow economic growth, and a devalued pound.

It was, therefore, not a simple time to deliver his annual National Day Broadcast. In typical Lee fashion, it was blunt in delivery and understated in observations. “There are few problems facing us that we did not foresee”, said the Prime Minister. “Where we may have been wrong is in the timing. Things have happened sooner than we had expected. We will face quite a few hazards in the 1970's.” He continued “Each generation has its own problems. Our generation has either to add greater strength and security to our society or watch all that we and our predecessors have built up over 150 years be lost or ruined.”

Half a century later, Lee’s speech is worth revisiting, especially for British policymakers. Singapore’s leader was acutely aware that he was dealing with a world in which other powers compelled him to make hard decisions and trade offs, reducing his autonomy. Lee knew that without national growth, he had no meaningful democracy and nation. Without striving towards a national identity, his country would fall back into tribal loyalties and conflicts. Without an increase in defence, Singapore’s autonomy would be lessened.

Now look at Singapore half a century later.

As Lee concluded: “We cannot afford not to succeed.”

— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, visited Washington to meet President Donald Trump. Mr Starmer has tried to position himself as a bridge between a retreating United States and a furious Europe, and arrived in the nation’s capital to persuade Mr Trump’s America to remain as a security backstop for Ukraine. His visit yielded many top-line successes, including superficial approval of the Chagos deal, avoidance of trade tariffs, and - from appearance - warm ties between both leaders.

2. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, visited Washington alongside the Prime Minister. In an interview on arrival, Mr Lammy discussed the Chagos deal, noting that Mr Trump would have the ultimate veto, a move Mr Trump seems happy to let go ahead. He was accompanied by Britain’s National Security Adviser.

3. The British Government announced the largest shake-up of Britain’s defence spending in decades. Spending on defence will hit 3% during the next Parliament, and 2.5% by 2027. Mr Starmer announced a cut to foreign aid, from 0.5% GNI to 0.3%.

4. Anneliese Dodds, the International Development Minister, resigned over Mr Starmer’s cut to the foreign aid budget.

5. The British Government marked the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Actions included the announcement of the largest sanctions package to date, a United Nations vote, and diplomatic events the world over.

6. Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, visited India. It formed part of an effort to resume the Free Trade Agreement negotiations, which were originally launched in 2022 under then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He was joined by Investment Minister Baroness (Poppy) Gustafsson.

7. Britain and Mongolia hosted political talks, the first in a series. Critical minerals, energy and economic ties were discussed.

8. The Bank of England published a research note showing the economic impact of geopolitical risk.

1. Defence, Ukraine, and realpolitik diplomacy

KEY POINTS:

• The illegal invasion of Ukraine entered its third year. Prime Minister Keir Starmer flew to The White House, meeting President Trump. The leaders discussed Ukraine and other issues, with Mr Trump seemingly supporting Mr Starmer’s Chagos deal, accepting the offer of second State Visit, and nudging the view that Britain would avoid tariffs.

• Ahead of his Washington trip, Mr Starmer announced increases to defence spending and a cut to foreign aid. Analysts were sceptical of increase, arguing that it involved accountancy tricks rather than substantial capital increases. Defence procurement will be integral to any meaningful change.

• Foreign Secretary David Lammy delivered a statement on Ukraine in the House of Commons, announcing a sanctions package among other measures. Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel urged the Government to consider diverting money from the 0.5% official development assistance (ODA) budget into defence.

Ukraine and the United States continued to dominate Britain’s foreign policy bandwidth. For clarity on how the strategy developed, let’s unpack this week’s movements chronologically. On Monday, Britain joined European partners and Five Eye nations in announcing a significant sanctions package, the largest since the war began; naturally, Labour shoe-horned in its ‘Plan for Change’ strategy to the press release.

In the Commons, Foreign Secretary David Lammy delivered a long statement on Britain’s ongoing support for Ukraine, and fielded questions from dozens of MPs. An accompanying press release quoted the Foreign Secretary as saying "every military supply line disrupted, every rouble blocked, and every enabler of Putin’s aggression exposed is a step towards a just and lasting peace, and towards security and prosperity in the UK as a part of this government’s Plan for Change.”

The following day, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced Britain would increase its defence spending and cut foreign aid. The former would hit 2.5% GDP by 2027, and 3% in the next Parliament, while the latter would be reduced from 0.5% to 0.3% GNI. There would be more money for the intelligence services, he said. Britain’s foreign policy is now NATO first.

The announcement was met with political support from many - most Labour MPs and commentariat pundits, who applauded its signalling - and concern from others. The latter camp included those frustrated by the cuts to aid, and analysts and defence folk who argue the defence spend is not far enough.

International Development Minister Anneliese Dodds resigned on Friday; she told the Prime Minister she had delayed her resignation until after his meeting with President Donald Trump, saying it was "imperative that you had a united cabinet behind you as you set off for Washington".

Tucked further was an announcement that a National Security Strategy would be published sometime before June - a previously unmentioned document. Awkwardly, Mr Lammy had recently criticised the United States’ cutting of overseas aid, calling it a “big strategic mistake” that allows China to further its global influence, and a much-heralded Soft Power Council was launched less than two months ago.

Analysts and economists sought to get to the bottom of the numbers. Quoted in The Financial Times, the Institute for Fiscal Studies denounced it as a “misleadingly large figure.” “This figure only seems to make sense if one thinks the defence budget would otherwise have been frozen in cash terms,” Ben Zaranko, IFS associate director, told the paper. On aid, some context is again useful. Nearly 40% of the government’s current official development assistance (ODA, or foreign aid to you and I) is currently going on “asylum backlogs [and] paying for hotels”, in the words of Mr Starmer.

Regardless of the technical and accounting aspects of the announcement, it achieved the top-line political impact needed. Under President Donald Trump, the offer is clear: if you want to sit at the table and discuss security and defence measures, you buy yourself access by increasing defence spending. In this case, praise arrived almost instantly: US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth tweeted “Just got off the phone w/ John Healey MP — the UK Secretary of State for Defense — who confirmed they will increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, and eventually much further. A strong step from an enduring partner.”

Mr Starmer then flew to Washington to meet President Donald Trump, hot on the heels of President Emmanuel Macron. The Prime Minister’s strategy, underpinned by his new Ambassador, Peter Mandelson, is not to criticise Mr Trump’s recent actions around Ukraine to the same degree as his European counterparts, and to utilise Mr Trump’s affection for the Royal Family as a key offering for the transactional President. In taking a more moderate line, he told the media "President Trump has changed the global conversation over the last few weeks. And it has created an opportunity. Now, we must get the fundamentals right"; comments delivered at a British Embassy reception echoed this, noting the best days were to come for the Special Relationship. An accompanying press release emphasised the technology and AI relationship, an area diplomats and industrialists are keen to grow under the two leaders.

The meeting between the two leaders had consequential diplomatic impact for Britain. First, Mr Starmer offered the President a letter from King Charles III, inviting Mr Trump for an unprecedented second State Visit to the United Kingdom. Accepting, Mr Trump added “He is a great gentleman. A great, great gentleman…Beautiful man, a wonderful man and we appreciate I've known him, gotten to know him very well actually.” Second, the President seemed to have been supportive of Mr Starmer’s Chagos movements. Third, he indicated Britain may avoid his punitive tariffs. And fourth, Mr Trump didn’t offer a hard no on the prospect of some sort of US involvement in safekeeping Ukraine. Time will tell what transcends from words to action.

Noted

While in DC, Mr Starmer visited defence AI company Palantir's office, meeting CEO Alex Karp.

2. Indian trade diplomacy

KEY POINTS

• Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds and Investment Minister Poppy Gustafsson visited India to push forward Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations.

• The British Government has reaffirmed India as a trade priority but has not set a timeline, causing frustration among Indian negotiators.

• Engaged in formal talks with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, Reynolds toured key UK businesses in India, and announced £100m in new trade and investment deals.

• Gustafsson visited Mumbai and Bengaluru to attract Indian investment in UK high-growth sectors like advanced manufacturing, clean energy, and financial services.

• While economic ties are strengthening, the path to a finalised UK-India trade deal remains uncertain.

Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, and Poppy Gustafsson, the Investment Minister, were the latest in a stream of senior Labour politicians to touch down in India in an effort to massage a Free Trade Agreement closer into existence.

It’s worth briefly recapping how we got here. Britain and India have been engaged in negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) since January 2022, following the "Enhanced Trade Partnership" established in May 2021 under the premiership of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

The British Government ran a consultation in 2021 to prepare for these negotiations, with the Conservative government initially aiming for an interim agreement to secure early benefits. Johnson set an arbitrary deadline for completion by Diwali 2022, but this was later abandoned in favour of prioritising the quality of the deal over speed. By October 2022, a majority of the chapters had been closed, though no final agreement was reached. The House of Lords International Agreements Committee, among others, criticised the negotiations for having vague objectives and questioned whether a comprehensive deal could be achieved in the short term, citing India's history of cautious trade agreements. Concerns around work visas and immigration numbers also appeared in Parliamentary debates from time to time.

When Labour won the General Election last year, it confirmed that India remains a priority in its trade negotiation programme. However, there is no indication of a specific timeline for concluding the agreement, and frustration from some Indian interlocutors over the pace (or lack thereof) Labour has injected into the pursuit of the FTA.

So, we find ourselves in Delhi; Mr Reynolds and Ms Gustafsson went their separate ways in-country on different missions. For the former, much of the time was spent with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal for two days of formal talks. Mr Reynolds toured BT India’s Gurugram office, a major UK employer, and attended a joint visit to Delhi’s National Crafts Museum to engage with Indian commerce and artisans. Naturally, Reynolds positioned the trade deal as a key element of Labour’s Plan for Change, emphasising economic growth and stability. 17 new export and investment deals were announced, totalling over £100m, with a focus on insurance companies who can now enter the market with new rules.

Meanwhile, the Investment Minister spearheaded efforts to attract Indian capital into Britain, visiting Mumbai and Bengaluru, India’s financial and tech hubs. She addressed investors, pitching the UK as the best and most connected destination for Indian businesses, highlighting India’s role as the UK’s second-largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI). With a focus on high-growth sectors like advanced manufacturing, clean energy, and financial services, she reinforced Britain’s pro-business stance and economic stability. While Reynolds concentrated on trade policy, Gustafsson’s mission was to secure investment that supports long-term UK growth.

3. Mongolia in London

KEY POINTS

• Indo-Pacific Minister Catherine West hosted Mongolia’s Deputy Prime Minister Amarsaikhan Sainbuyan in London for the first annual talks.

• Britain is Mongolia’s largest foreign investor, mainly due to Rio Tinto’s stake in the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine.

• Discussions addressed rising global tensions, reaffirmed commitment to the UN Charter, and opposed threats to territorial integrity.

Back in London, Indo-Pacific Minister Catherine West hosted Mongolia’s Deputy Prime Minister Amarsaikhan Sainbuyan for the first annual UK-Mongolia political dialogue.

Mongolian ties have been somewhat of an interest area for the Foreign Office since the two nations celebrated 60 years of diplomatic relations in 2023. The country was hit hard by Covid-19, due to a sharp decline in the demand for mineral products and prolonged closures of borders with China (mineral exports account for about 80% of total exports and 90% of exports go to China.) Consequently, Mongolia’s GDP growth fell from 5.6% in 2019 to -4.6% in 2020 and gradually increased to 5.0% in 2022 and 7.0% in 2023.

Perhaps sensing an opening, senior officials have visited back and forth, and the UK is the largest foreign direct investor in Mongolia, thanks to mining firm Rio Tinto’s investment in Oyu Tolgoi – one of the world’s largest copper mines. It’s jointly owned by the Government of Mongolia (34%) and Rio Tinto (66%), with Rio Tinto managing the operation.

Militarily, Mongolia contributed more than 6,000 troops to Afghanistan in support of NATO operations there, and their armed forces served alongside the UK’s, including as part of the Kabul Security Force (KSF) which was set up to protect NATO advisers operating in the Afghan capital.

This week’s meeting saw geopolitical and economic discussions. Both sides “noted deepening geopolitical tensions, stressed their commitment to upholding the principles of the UN Charter, and called on all countries to refrain from using force against the territorial integrity and political independence of any state.” Mr Sainbuyan also met Gareth Thomas MP, the Minister for Export Affairs, to “discuss expanding cooperation and increasing jobs in both countries.”

This is of particular importance to Mongolia: neighbouring Russia is the single biggest supplier of its fuel and energy, and the other neighbour China is the biggest export destination. To this end, Britain’s stated offer is threefold:

• Trade & Investment: The UK is Mongolia’s largest investor, with $15 billion in Rio Tinto and other UK investments, plus trade opportunities and UKEF-backed infrastructure support.

• Democracy & Governance: The UK supports Mongolia’s commitment to democratic values and the international rules-based order.

• Economic Development: Collaboration in education (Chevening scholarships, Cambridge Partnership) and climate initiatives is driving transformative change.

---

UN SECURITY COUNCIL

• Statement by Fergus Eckersley, UK Minister Counsellor, at the UN Security Council meeting on UN Peacekeeping Operations

• UK Statement at the 58 Human Rights Council during the Enhanced Interactive Dialogue on Sudan. Delivered by the UK’s Permanent Representative to the UN & WTO, Simon Manley

DEFENCE

• John Healey, Defence Secretary, hosted his counterpart Nikos Dendias in London.

• Luke Pollard, Minister for the Armed Forces, met his NATO counterparts at various points over the week.

• The Royal Navy’s Mine and Threat Exploitation Group (MTXG) successfully spent time with JS Bungo, a Uraga-class mine counter measure vessel from the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force.

• Julia Longbottom, Ambassador to Japan, hosted a meeting between RAF Major General Marshall and her Japanese counterpart.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, spoke to the President of France, Emmanuel Macron.

• David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, met Gen. Keith Kellog, the US Special Presidential Envoy for Russia & Ukraine.

• Mr Lammy also issued a statement after Thailand deported 40 Uyghur Muslims to China.

• Mr Lammy also delivered a video message to the 2nd ASEAN Future Forum (AFF), hosted by Diplomatic Academy of Viet Nam, and Viet Nam Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

• Hamish Falconer, Minister for the Middle East, hosted members of the National Assembly of Pakistan.

• Britain, Canada, Iceland and Norway underlined non-recognition of the illegal so-called Presidential elections in Georgia’s Abkhazia region on 15 February 2025.

• Hilary Benn MP met with the Tánaiste, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Trade and Minister for Defence, Simon Harris TD, at Iveagh House, Dublin.

SANCTIONS

• Britain announced its largest sanctions package to date on Russian and other foreign entities for propping up the war in Ukraine.

SOFT POWER

• Britain helped train 30 Ghanaian journalists to communicate science and technology more clearly.

• Pakistan’s Chief Whips visited Britain to learn about Parliamentary procedure.

• Britain continues to train Fijian police officers.

TRADE & ECONOMY

• Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, attended the G20 Finance Minister’s meeting in South Africa. The USA, EU, Japan, India, China, Brazil and Mexico did not send representatives.

• Britain’s Competition & Markets Authority signed an MoU with the Commissioner of Competition of Canada regarding international cooperation on the application of national competition laws.

AI AND EMERGING TECH

• Ministers have delayed plans to regulate artificial intelligence as the UK government seeks to align itself with Donald Trump’s administration on the technology, the Guardian reported.

• Poppy Gustafsson, Investment Minister, launched a Responsible AI Toolkit with Indian counterparts.

AID

• Britain suspended some aid to Rwanda, in light of its support of M23 in the DRC.

DIPLOMATS

• Sarah MacIntosh DCMG has been appointed British High Commissioner to Australia. This is a significant move: she was most recently the Prime Minister’s Adviser on International Affairs and Deputy National Security Adviser.

• Neil Bradley has been appointed British High Commissioner to the Republic of Namibia.

• Danielle Dunne presented her credentials to President Santiago Peña as the new British Ambassador to Paraguay.

• Edward Ferguson, Ambassador to Serbia, joined European counterparts and met with women leaders of Serbian NGOs who have faced unjustified political and media attacks in recent weeks.

Kemi Badenoch, Leader of the Opposition, delivered her first major foreign policy speech. Formed of six main points, the Conservative leader sought to differentiate her approach from both Labour and her own party’s recent 13-year stint in Downing Street.

Delivered with bad audio equipment in right-wing think tank Policy Exchange’s headquarters, and peppered with the horns of tractors protesting the government’s inheritance tax plans for farmers, her speech pivoted on six points:

• Acknowledged a Changing World – Ms Badenoch argued that the global order was shifting, with the "Pax Americana" weakening or ending. She stated that the UK needed to accept this reality, reassess how nations interacted, and ensure it was not left vulnerable in an increasingly volatile world.

• Placed National Interest First – She stressed that the UK’s foreign policy should have prioritised national security, economic strength, and sovereignty. She warned that internationalism and progressive ideals should not have been allowed to override Britain’s core interests.

• Called for an End to Naivety in Global Affairs – While she recognised the importance of alliances like NATO and trade partnerships, Ms Badenoch cautioned against blind trust in international law and institutions. She argued that if these bodies were co-opted by activists or authoritarian regimes, Britain needed to be prepared to disengage.

• Emphasised the Need for National Resilience – She criticised cultural debates and historical self-flagellation as distractions that had weakened the country. She believed that a strong, united society with confidence in its values, history, and institutions was essential for national security.

• Learned from Past Foreign Policy Failures – She highlighted the West’s failures in Afghanistan, Libya, and Ukraine, arguing that Britain had been too hesitant and reactive. According to her, weakness had emboldened aggressors like Putin, and the UK needed to take a firmer, more strategic approach to global conflicts.

• Advocated for Rebuilding Military and Economic Strength – Ms Badenoch called for a major increase in defence spending and a reformed, more efficient military. She linked economic growth to national security, advocating for lower taxation, reduced bureaucracy, and investment in key industries to restore Britain’s global standing.

Share

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run for fun in my free time.

Hello,

Few have had a life as varied as Edward Luttwak. From attending Chairman Mao's funeral, consulting for the Pentagon, advising on how to minimise dolphin poaching, and late nights drinking with Vladimir Putin, he has his fingerprints on some of the most interesting plans and ideas in the world of statecraft. The author of one of the most authoritative books on executing a coup has some lessons for plotters: take control of the state's repressive machinery (military, police, security services) rather than attacking the entire state apparatus, establish checkpoints to restrict movement, and present the coup as being carried out by a committee or group, not an individual.

Let us play a game. You’re the newly minted Chief of MI6, and I am your humble adviser. We have been given a creative and wide-reaching remit to try and disrupt regimes and groups globally that threaten British interests. What ideas could we spitball?

Events in Argentina could be as good a place as any to start to learn about the new possibilities on offer. Its leader, President Javier Milei, is currently facing significant heat for endorsing Libra, a memecoin, which looks to have been rug-pulled as the price tanked. What’s that Chief? Oh right. A memecoin is a cryptocurrency that started as a joke or based on an internet meme, and a rug pull is a scam in the crypto world where you create one of these tokens, hype it up, get people to invest, and then suddenly withdraw all the funds, making the token worthless.

Why is that relevant? Well, we could find a country where the government is openly hostile to our national interests, and where the population is keen not to keep their money in their nation’s volatile currency, instead turning to other avenues for storing it. Perhaps we can astroturf in a new memecoin, encouraged ‘organically’ by us using local and international agencies to pay social media influencers, low-level officials and athletes to promote it further? Yes Chief, we may even be able to one of the leader’s advisers to pitch it directly to them! That might not cost too much. And then, at a moment of our choosing, we orchestrate a rug pull. Damage confidence in the leadership, financially impact those in the regime, including low-level officials, and stir popular resentment.

I’m fired? Fair enough Chief.

— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, attended an emergency summit of European leaders in Paris to discuss Europe's security in light of potential changes in US foreign policy towards Ukraine and the continent. Said an adviser of the Prime Minister: "The U.S. are clearly open to proposals. But we need to present them with a clear pitch on what European nations can offer." Mr Starmer heads to the United States next week, where he will meet President Donald Trump.

2. Mr Starmer confirmed for the first time that he was willing to send British troops to Ukraine to enforce a future peace deal, acknowledging it could put troops "in harm's way." Sources leaked that Britain would also consider offering up air support in the event of any peace deal with dozens of Typhoon fighter jets. Discussions in Westminster continued about raising defence spending to surpass 2.5% of GDP, with many analysts saying this would still not be enough.

3. Angela Rayner, the Deputy Prime Minister, visited Ethiopia and Ghana. Her trip focused on building business links between the nations. Lord Collins, the Minister for Africa, visited Kenya and Tanzania.

4. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, attended the G20 gathering in South Africa. In a speech titled “The Global Geopolitical Situation”, Mr Lammy stated "at the heart of my government’s approach to foreign policy lies the belief that regional and geopolitical stability can only be delivered through respect for international law and the principles of the UN Charter."

5. John Healey, the Defence Secretary, delivered a speech on defence reform progress. It relayed a sense of frustration over procurement pipelines and the Ministry of Defence’s opaque and slow systems. He also travelled to Norway and signed a new defence agreement.

6. Peter Kyle, the Science and Technology Secretary, and Poppy Gustafsson, an Investment Minister, were in the Gulf. Their trips were financially motivated, aiming to increase investment in the UK. Also present in Riyadh: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio for preliminary talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on ending the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was not part of these talks and was instead in Turkey meeting President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

7. Donald Trump, the President of the United States, implied he would bring in 25% tariffs on imports of cars, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. These sectors collectively account for over £18 billion in annual British exports to the US, with automotive exports alone valued at £8.3 billion in 2024

8. Sadiq Khan, the London Mayor, hosted EU Ambassador Pedro Serrano and the UK ambassadors of the 27 EU member countries. Khan told them he was "strongly in favour" of a new youth mobility scheme.

9. James Risch, a U.S. Republican Senator, described the British deal to hand the Chagos Islands to Mauritius as a "dangerous surrender" to China.

10. The Foreign Office summoned the Rwandan High Commissioner following advances made by the Rwandan Defence Force and M23 in eastern DRC.

1. Ukraine

KEY POINTS:

• PM Keir Starmer met European leaders in Paris to assess UK support for Ukraine, emphasising that a US security guarantee is essential to deter Putin. He aimed to position Britain as a bridge between Europe and the US ahead of his Washington visit.

• Mr Starmer called for increased UK defence spending and signaled a willingness to deploy British troops to Ukraine, raising political and logistical challenges. He also disagreed with Donald Trump’s claim that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was a dictator ahead of his trip to Washington next week.

• Meanwhile, Defence Secretary John Healey pushed for urgent MoD procurement reforms to improve efficiency and value for money.

• The geopolitical landscape remains volatile. Mr Trump used harsh rhetoric to accuse Ukraine and Zelenskyy of starting the war and not holding elections in the manner of a dictator. His Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, began a potential US-Russia rapprochement, the demands from Washington appear to include vast minaral claims and elections in Ukraine.

• Potential alpha exists around the pricing of defence companies, which are likely to benefit from a sustained European change in defence spending.

It was a week of leaks, diplomatic turbulence, and geopolitical upheaval. Prime Minister Keir Starmer joined his European counterparts in Paris on Monday to try and assess what Britain could offer Ukraine. A key message emerging from all European camps, including Britain, is that while they are willing to lead on Ukrainian security issues, they need the guarantee of a US backstop, or as Defence Secretary John Healey put it: "it is only the US that can provide the deterrence to Putin that will prevent him attacking again". The nature of Britain’s current set-up means it sits downstream of many key decisions made in Washington; and Donald Trump’s administration is unorthodox in its approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine war. To this end, Mr Starmer has sought to position himself as a bridge between Europe and the United States throughout this process, and will travel to Washington next week.

In comments aired after the gathering, the Prime Minister acknowledged “in this moment we have to recognise the new era we are in, not cling hopelessly to the comforts of the past,” but argued that the US will need to serve as a backstop to any ceasefire or peace. Expanding, he set out two aims in an op-ed in The Telegraph. First, Britain and other European nations “must increase our defence spending and take on a greater role in NATO. Non-US Nato nations have already increased defence spending by 20 per cent in the past year, but we must go further.” Second, Britain would be “willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary.” The former raises questions about how Labour will raise defence spending without breaking manifesto commitments on raising tax, while the latter saw some prominent British politicians, like Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey, call for a Parliamentary vote before boots touched the ground in Ukraine.

Further diplomatic chaos broke out on Wednesday, with Mr Trump declaring Zelenskyy a “dictator” who had provoked the war. In comments, Vice-President J.D. Vance seemed to imply the Ukrainian leader’s disparaging of Mr Trump’s peace efforts had led to this. The best summation of the geopolitical situation was delivered on Newsnight by Sir Alex Younger, Former Chief of MI6.

Even if defence spending is raised, some practical realities merit consideration. 2,500 British soldiers from the Army's high readiness force, the First Division, are currently in Romania, 16 miles (25km) from the border with Ukraine. They could be deployed, but this, in turn, requires diverting combat-ready troops from existing NATO obligations in Estonia, Poland, and domestic rapid reaction forces.

Additionally, the Ministry of Defence procurement needs reforming rapidly: 44% of MoD contracts are non-competitively awarded to companies such as BAE Systems and other primes, creating a "closed ecosystem" that stifles SME innovation. On the industrial side, the MoD currently sources only 25% of its steel from UK producers despite domestic mills producing 95% of required defence-grade steel, with industry body UK Steel saying “It is likely that MOD procurement officials do not realise that the United Kingdom has a range of domestic steel producers and suppliers with the capacity to produce key products for defence and security of national supply.”

Acutely aware of this, Defence Secretary John Healey has spent the last year reforming the MoD’s accountability and incentive structure. He delivered a speech this week updating on these findings and efforts. “We’re simply not securing the value for money our armed forces, our economy needs for every defence panel,” he noted, adding “[on] procurement, we’ve got a situation where we employ eleven checkers for every one decision maker. So, no wonder it takes an average six years for a large programme simply to get onto contract.” To attempt to fix this, Mr Healey has two major reviews underway - the Strategic Defence Review and the Defence Reform. Time will tell if they can bring in the change at the speed this moment demands.

2. African outreach

KEY POINTS

• Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner met Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed and Deputy PM Temesgen Tiruneh, and attended signing of a $600m British private equity investment in Ethiopia’s dairy sector.

• She visited the Ethiopian Securities Exchange, Ethiopian Airlines HQ, and AI Institute, and delivered 12 UK-funded ambulances with the Red Cross.

• In Ghana, she spoke of potential areas of economic collaboration.

• Lord Collins visited Kenya and Tanzania, focusing on military cooperation and economic ties. In Kenya, he discussed UK-Kenya investment partnerships and military exercises. In Tanzania, toured Dar es Salaam port, a key UK-backed trade hub.

• UK’s Africa engagement remained fragmented, lagging behind China, Turkey, and the UAE in investment.

The pursuit of growth finds British politicians travelling to increasingly distant lands. This time it was the turn of Angela Rayner, Britain’s Deputy Prime Minister, to visit two vibrant African nations.

In Africa’s second most populous country, Ms Rayner met Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and her counterpart Temesgen Tiruneh. Ethiopia’s GDP growth hovers at around 6%, hampered by drought and war. To this end, she sought to align Labour’s focus on "green, inclusive growth” with Ethiopia’s need for climate-resilient infrastructure, attending the signing of British private equity firm Asset Green’s new partnership with Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), the country’s state investment arm, in a deal that will see the PE firm invest $600m in dairy farming and processing initiatives. The Deputy Prime Minister also rang the bell at the newly opened Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX) in Addis Ababa and visited Ethiopian Airways HQ.

Other aspects of her trip were less commercial, including visits to schools and the launch of a UK-Ethiopia designers platform. Interestingly, the Deputy Prime Minister also visited the Ethiopian Artificial Intelligence Institute. The EAII aims to be the premier African AI research & development centre by 2030, and has two interesting Chinese partnerships: Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST) to develop a data centre tasked with integrating African scripts into online platforms, and Harbin Institute of Technology to advance AI-driven innovation. On a stopover with the Red Cross, she delivered 12 fully equipped UK-funded ambulances.

In Ghana, the Deputy Prime Minister congratulated President John Dramani Mahama on his recent election victory. In a joint press conference, Ms Rayner said “what struck me is your election was around the 24-hour economy...we have a mutual aspiration for both the UK economy and here in Ghana,” emphasising that both nations needed to make an effort “to make sure that both our economies can grow and that people on the ground can really see that, the jobs that fulfil their family life.” Mr Mahama reflected that the world was becoming more unpredictable, “where relations between countries were becoming very transactional.” He added “And so working together to see how we can bring in more investment, especially considering we are shut out in the international credit markets, to bring in more direct foreign investments to be able to create jobs” was an area of interest.

Also in Africa? Lord Collins, whose ministerial brief covers the continent. His whistlestop tour included Kenya (where Britain joined two military exercises, land-based Exercise Justified Accord, and naval Exercise Cutlass Express, with the armed forces of 29 countries, including 22 African nations) and Tanzania. In Nairobi, Mr Collins spoke to senior Kenyan officials about the Strategic Partnership between both countries: recent movements have included the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) and the UK's MOBILIST program launching a collaboration aimed at introducing new investment products in Kenya, and a joint call for proposals in the clean energy sector.

In Tanzania, the Labour Peer visited Dar es Salaam port, of particular interest because of its strategic importance (95% of the country's international trade passes through, and bordering nations use it too) and the new railroad connected to it which British firms and the government aided financially. On a macro level, British companies such as Shell support Tanzania’s development of offshore gas fields and LNG production. Although Britain doesn’t buy it, its production helps create (in theory) a more stable global international market.

3. G20

KEY POINTS

• The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting was held on the African continent for the first time.

• South Africa invited senior representatives from 19 nations, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not attend amid diplomatic tensions.

• Britain was represented by Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who criticised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and affirmed the UK's broader interest in global conflicts.

• Mr Lammy underscored the importance of international law and the UN Charter, highlighted initiatives with the Global South—including doubling aid for Sudan and planning a London conference.

• Other speakers, including President Cyril Ramaphosa, China’s Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi, and India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, stressed that global challenges such as geopolitical tensions, climate change, and economic pressures require coordinated, inclusive responses.

• The gathering revealed deepening divides between Western and Global South priorities, with the absence of key Western figures further weakening consensus-building.

For the first time in history, a G20 Foreign Ministers gathering was held on the African continent. Hosts South Africa assembled senior representatives from 19 other nations, excluding US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who chose not to attend - partly tied to Washington’s ongoing diplomatic beef with the rainbow nation. Rubio posted on Twitter saying the reason for his G20 absence was South Africa using the gathering to promote diversity, equality and inclusion frameworks, “In other words: DEI and climate change.”

Representing Britain was Foreign Secretary David Lammy. Having got the obligatory “we’re doing this as part of our Plan for Growth to boost the UK’s economy” clip out the way, Mr Lammy delivered a speech before his peers aimed at chastising Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and showing Britain took an interest in conflicts and concerns outside of Europe. ‘The Global Geopolitical Situation’ provides insights into the influences governing the Foreign Secretary’s outlook.

1. International norms and laws were mentioned, with emphasis, frequently: “The heart of my government’s approach to foreign policy lies the belief that regional and geopolitical stability can only be delivered through respect for international law and the principles of the UN Charter.”

2. Mr Lammy’s focus: “Since starting this job, I’ve made a reset with the so called Global South, a central plank of the UK Foreign Policy, and it’s why I doubled British aid for Sudan, and I prepared a conference in London to push for a political process which will end the fighting and protect civilians.”

3. An effort to try and draw a connecting line between conflicts in Europe, potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific, and the African continent: “There can be no geopolitical stability, whilst there remains a hierarchy of conflicts, with those on this continent finding themselves at the bottom of the global pile.”

It’s worth knowing what some other ministers and leaders used their speeches to convey.

• South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa: “Geopolitical tensions, rising intolerance, conflict and war, climate change, pandemics and energy and food insecurity threaten an already fragile global coexistence. These challenges are interconnected. They require responses that are inclusive and coordinated.”

• China’s Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi: "China has noticed that recently the calls for peace talks are rising and the window of opportunity for peace is opening. Although the parties have different positions and it is hard to find simple solutions to complex issues, dialogue is always better than confrontation and peace talks better than fighting."

• Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar: “The global geopolitical situation remains difficult by any definition. Some of it is the accumulated challenges of the Covid pandemic, conflict situations, financial pressures, food security and climate concerns. Looking ahead, differential progress on Artificial intelligence and Electric vehicles, space, drones or green hydrogen have clear geopolitical implications.”

Ultimately, this gathering underscored deepening divides between Western and Global South priorities. The absence of key Western figures weakened consensus-building, reflecting a fragmented global governance landscape.

---

UN SECURITY COUNCIL

• Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Libya.

• Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on threats to international peace and security.

• Explanation of vote by Ambassador Barbara Woodward, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, following the vote on the UN Security Council resolution renewing the mandate of the 1591 Committee Panel of Experts

• Statement by Ambassador James Kariuki at the Special Committee on Peacekeeping Operations (C-34).

DEFENCE

• John Healey, the Defence Secretary, visited Norway and signed a new defence agreement.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, spoke to the Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre.

SANCTIONS

• Britain’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) and Indonesia's Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) agreed to strengthen collaboration on transnational corruption cases.

SOFT POWER

• Lindsay Hoyle MP, Speaker of the House, was in Malaysia to discuss the workings of Parliament.

• Three National Members of Parliament from the Solomon Islands toured Westminster and Tynwald (Isle of Man) Parliament.

TRADE & ECONOMY

• Britain and Kazakhstan are seeking closer cooperation in infrastructure developments, with a joint session being held in Astana recently between diplomats.

AI AND EMERGING TECH

• Britain and India held a UK-India Knowledge Exchange Workshop on Al-Based Climate Modelling Centre and Policy Making session.

AID

• Simon McDonald, the former head of the Foreign Office, warned the Chancellor not to cut Britain’s international aid spending.

• Jeremy Browne, a former foreign office minister, urged the government to reduce foreign aid spending and put the money saved towards funding the military.

• British International Investment (BII), the government’s investment arm for international development that receives taxpayer funding and is owned by the Foreign Office, spent more than £7mn on business-class flights in the past two years, according to newly disclosed data.

• Britain, through its Sustainable Blue Economies Programme Blue Social Challenge Fund, has awarded a grant of £99,191 (approximately BZD250,000) to MarAlliance for the project “Mangrove Habitat for Juvenile Fish Recruitment: Building Local Knowledge and Capacity” in Belize.

DIPLOMATS

• Charles King has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to Somalia.

• Alex Pinfield has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to Morocco.

• Jane Marriott, veteran High Commissioner to Pakistan, has been busy. She’s recently been using speeches to warn that 47% of Pakistan's agricultural land could become unsuitable for farming by 2050, if immediate action is not taken to address climate change. Agriculture contributes 24% of GDP and employs 37.4% of the workforce in the country.

[Source]

KEY POINTS

• Peter Kyle (Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology) and Baroness (Poppy) Gustafsson (Investment Minister) visited Qatar and Saudi Arabia .

• Labour’s economic strategy targets the GCC for inward investment, with a proposed FTA potentially boosting trade by 16%—adding an estimated £8.6bn annually to existing trade.

• Further investment is encouraged, highlighted by GCC sovereign wealth funds’ £29bn contribution to UK infrastructure (2016–2023) and the Gulf’s recognised strategic defence role.

• Mr Kyle toured tech sectors in Saudi Arabia and met key Qatari officials, while Ms Gustafsson stressed prioritising renewable energy and AI investment.

• The evolving UK-GCC relationship, underpinned by historical ties and post-Brexit pragmatism, now requires balancing economic ambitions with ethical and geopolitical realities.

International attention turned to the Gulf this week, as Saudi Arabia hosted American and Russian officials for the first Trump-era attempt to thrash out an end to the latter’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Not invited but very much present in the country (although working to a different agenda): Peter Kyle, Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, and Baroness (Poppy) Gustafsson, Britain’s Investment Minister.

To grow the economy, Labour has spotlighted various foreign governments and blocs as key targets for attracting inward investment, while finalising its own trade strategy (publication of which is due soon). One such bloc is the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a prime target over the last fifty years due to its London-loving petro-rich states, hungry sovereign wealth funds, and need to diversify from oil.

Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, has spoken endlessly of the need to attract more investment, on top of the already existing £29 billion GCC sovereign wealth funds invested into UK infrastructure between 2016–2023. On defence, the 2021 Integrated Review noted the Gulf’s strategic importance.

Mr Kyle visited multiple sites in Saudi Arabia covering health tech to telecoms and genetics. An accompanying government Twitter post noted that KSA and Qatar “are natural partners to the UK because of their ambition, openness to innovation & strength in science & tech.” He also met Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister His Excellency Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, and a Qatar computer hub with a world-first LLM. Separately, Ms Gustafsson told Qatari media “The Government will prioritise sub-sectors that meet our objectives. This includes areas like renewable energy and AI, and Qatar will be a key partner as we explore investment opportunities across these areas.”

The UK-GCC relationship, shaped by historical ties and post-Brexit pragmatism, faces a defining decade. While the FTA offers economic dividends, reconciling ethical concerns with strategic imperatives will test Westminster’s “progressive realism.” As GCC states diversify from hydrocarbons, Britain aims to transition from patron to partner, leveraging expertise without overreliance on petrodollars. Success hinges on balancing trade ambitions with the geopolitical realities of a multipolar Gulf.

Share

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions. This is a project I run for fun. These are my personal opinions. The opinions expressed in here? Personal.

Hello,

At the turn of the 19th century, a new technology slowly began to make its presence felt on the European continent. The telegraph allowed information to be shared at a speed never before seen, with the potential to revolutionise society, warfare, and business. In France, one astute leader looked at this frontier technology and decided to throw the weight of the state behind it. From Paris, Napoleon Bonaparte ordered new lines to be built throughout the country and beyond, as far as Italy. “The secret of war lies in the communications,” Mr Bonaparte is said to have mused, as his telegraph empire expanded.

A little over two hundred years later, a conclave of world leaders and tech moguls, representing nearly a third of the world's population and AI companies with a staggering market capitalisation of £8 trillion, gathered in the streets of Paris. The aim? To chart a course through the uncharted waters of AI development. The Artificial Intelligence Safety Summit - which will be discussed further in this Telegram - saw 66 nations - including China, Australia, Japan, Brazil and South Korea - sign on to France’s joint declaration on the need for "open, inclusive, and ethical" artificial intelligence (AI).

Britain did not join the signatories, citing restrictive language and a lack of national security focus. In fact, Prime Minister Keir Starmer did not attend the Summit at all. Neither did his Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner. This decision invites scrutiny, particularly when viewed through the lens of historical precedent and strategic foresight.

Consider, for instance, the Congress of Vienna in 1814-15. This diplomatic tour de force reshaped post-Napoleonic Europe and established a balance of power that largely endured for a century. Britain's adroit participation, aided by Viscount Castlereagh, secured its interests and influence on the continent. If, as the Chair of the UK’s AI Safety Institute has previously argued, we are at the beginning of a new type of geopolitics - AI Nationalism - then one cannot help but wonder if Starmer's absence from the AI Summit represents a missed opportunity of similar magnitude.

By foregoing the Summit, Starmer not only missed the chance to engage discreetly with his global counterparts face-to-face on the sidelines, but also to glean invaluable insights into their perspectives on AI's potential and pitfalls. Are his peers worried? Are they ambitious? Do they have a nationalist strategy? How are they trying to attract frontier firms? How are they utilising AI to propel growth? What does Britain’s ten-year engagement plan look like with a foreign nation ripe for disruption, or potential societal pressures, brought on by AGI?

As any seasoned diplomat or corporate strategist would attest, presence - or lack thereof - at such gatherings is a signalling measure. Markets scrutinise declarations, corporations parse statements, and adversaries analyse meetings with meticulous care. Those tasked with shaping foreign policy must grapple with two fundamental questions: what message are we conveying through our actions, and what are the cascading consequences of our choices? In an era where technological prowess increasingly equates to geopolitical influence, Britain's path forward demands not just domestic focus but also robust international engagement. The lessons of history—from the Treaty of Westphalia to the formation of NATO—underscore the critical importance of being present at the table when the future is being shaped.

— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, did not attend the AI Safety Summit in Paris. Britain did not sign the ‘Statement on Inclusive and Sustainable Artificial Intelligence for People and the Planet.’ Nor did the Prime Minister attend the Munich Security Conference.

2. The Prime Minister hosted President Trump’s Special Envoy to the United Kingdom, Mark Burnett, at Downing Street, during which he took a call from President Trump and discussed his forthcoming visit to the US.

3. John Healey and David Lammy, the Defence and Foreign Secretaries respectively, looked set to meet their United States counterpart in Europe.

4. David Lammy hosted his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in London. Media reported the Prime Minister briefly attended a meeting between national security adviser Jonathan Powell and Wang Yi too.

5. Britain convened the 26th Ukraine Defence Contact Group in Brussels. It marked the first time a European nation had chaired the meeting.

6. Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, visited India. He signed numerous agreements focused on Net Zero and green technology.

7. Lord Coaker, a Defence Minister, visited New Delhi. Britain and India signed a new defence agreement, swapping market access for collaboration on new defence technology.

8. Luke Pollard, the Minister for the Armed Forces, led a trade delegation to Ukraine which included Norway and The Netherlands. They met with Ukrainian ministers, officials, and industry partners to strengthen strategic partnerships and enhance defence cooperation in support of Ukraine.

9. The Defence Select Committee visited Finland.

1. AI Safety gathering

Peter Kyle, Britain’s Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, (featured in the above video) and his junior minister Feryal Clark attended the AI Safety Summit, co-hosted by old strategic allies India and France. Early on in the gathering, the major communique was leaked to the Transformer, where it received a fair bit of negative criticism online. The overarching consensus among many AI safety experts seems to have been that the conference fell short of achieving meaningful safety agreements and that France utilised the gathering as a chance to pitch for AI investment.

Still, it is worth understanding what was said at the gathering. Key quotes and themes from major players included:

• J.D. Vance, U.S. Vice President: America First-type speech which warned that over-regulation risked reducing private sector competition among the leading AI companies: “The Trump administration will guarantee that the most potent AI systems are developed in the U.S. using American-designed and manufactured chips…Europe must choose between U.S. leadership or authoritarian rivals"

• Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister: focused on equitable AI governance and public-sector applications, pushing for India to be the major partner for the so-called Global South: "AI is writing the code for humanity in this century…democratise access to AI tools and build open-source systems."

• Emmanuel Macron, French President: pushed for France to become the world’s third AI superpower, and a lighter touch: "We need these rules for AI to progress [...] but we must simplify and resynchronize with the rest of the world"

• Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission President: ushed for EU interests, which are different from the US approach: "Europe’s approach prioritises innovation while ensuring AI is human-centric."

• Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO: played down safety concerns, called for market expansion: "Safety is integral, but the main concern is making AI cheaper and better."

• Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO with ongoing AI interests: railed against EU regulation and warned of a West v East split: "Europe needs to organize itself effectively. The application layer holds immense potential…Failure to back open-source tech will cede scientific discovery to China."

Britain joined the United States in refusing to sign the Summit’s declaration. On the first day of the Summit, word leaked that this would happen, with Kyle telling a Politico report: “We’re in the negotiations at the moment. That’s something we don’t comment on while the negotiations are unfolding. We’re engaging fully with the French.” By Tuesday it was dead in the water. A Government spokesperson told the papers the declaration “didn’t provide enough practical clarity on global governance, nor sufficiently address harder questions around national security”. Other theories with varying levels of credibility circulated, including that the UK joined the Americans as a means of getting in the good books ahead of potential steel tariffs.

All eyes now turn to India, which is due to host the next AI Safety Summit sometime between November 2025 and January 2026. Who knows what technological advances will be on the forefront by that time?

Share

2. British-India defence ties

One of the bilateral relationships that receives the least amount of attention in Westminster relative to the intense amount of ongoing action is that between Britain and India. Approaches are multi-faceted, from market access and immigration to defence and quantum, and happening at a high level frequently.

The launch of the UK-India Defence Partnership–India (DP-I) this week presents one such example; a structural shift in bilateral defence relations, moving beyond transactional arms deals to co-development and supply chain integration. Anchored by a dedicated office within the Ministry of Defence, this initiative functions as a "single window" for accelerating joint projects – from advanced missile systems to naval propulsion technologies. One such example of this was the announced collaboration on next-generation weapons between Thales and Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL). Both companies signed a contract that will deliver Laser Beam Riding MANPADs (LBRM), which are advanced portable air defence missiles that soldiers can carry and use to shoot down enemy aircraft or drones, among other goodies.

In attendance from the UK side was Defence Minister Lord Coaker, joined by British firms Rolls Royce, BAE Systems, MBDA UK, Thales UK, GE Vernova, Leonardo, Strongfield Technologies, ASL, SEKO Logistics, Jaguar Engineering Centre of Excellence, Aviation Defence Supplies Ltd and Ricardo. The firms and British High Commissioner Lindy Cameron also gathered for a defence-focused UK-India Business Council roundtable.

The partnership tacitly addresses historical friction points: British concessions on technology transfer counterbalance India’s relaxation of foreign investment caps in defence ventures, tacitly noted in a Rolls Royce update. With 14 British defence majors now operating Indian production lines, DP-I signals London’s strategic bet on Delhi as a counterweight to Chinese defence industrial dominance in Asia.

On the energy front, Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband met his Indian counterpart Shri Manohar Lal, Union Minister of Power, in New Delhi. The readout of the Fourth India-UK Energy Dialogue was replete with diplomatic niceties, but the substance of the agreements reveals a more complex picture of two nations grappling with the realities of energy transition in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

For India, this is an opportunity to leverage British expertise in offshore wind and grid modernisation as it races to meet its ambitious renewable energy targets. Britain, meanwhile, sees in India a vast market for its clean energy technologies - a market of over one billion potential customers to trial new concepts - and a potential ally in shaping global climate policy. The establishment of a UK-India Offshore Wind Taskforce, in particular, signals a move beyond mere technology transfer to joint industrial strategy - a model that could prove instrumental in accelerating India's green energy revolution while opening new avenues for British firms.

Back in London, MPs from the influential Foreign Affairs Committee met with India’s High Commissioner Vikram Doraiswami. A tweet from the High Commission noted they discussed key priorities for India, India-UK relations, India’s foreign policy and opportunities available in various sectors like trade & investment, science & tech, green hydrogen, defence and education for deepening partnership between the two countries.

3. Ukraine and Munich

The moment many in Westminster had long been expecting arrived this week, as the Trump Administration began to make good on its stated aim to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the terms on which this will happen remain unclear, the rhetoric has drawn criticism from many British politicians. American Vice-President J.D. Vance told those gathered at a major conference in Munich “The threat that I worry the most about vis a vis Europe is not Russia. It's not China, it's not any other external actor. And what I worry about is the threat from within." He also attacked the British Government for what he perceived to be attacks against freedom of speech, religion and liberty.

Diplomatically, Britain is trying to work with the wider European community to support Ukraine, through statements, speeches and action. At the 26th Ukraine Defence Contact Group over 50 allies and partners, including Ukraine, the US, Japan and Australia, came together for a session chaired by Defence Secretary John Healey. The Defence Secretary announced a new £150m military support package to support Ukrainian troops fighting Russia on the frontline, which forms part of the UK’s total commitment of £4.5 billion. Key practical deliverables included thousands of drones, dozens of battle tanks, armoured vehicles and air defence systems. Healey then went on to attend a NATO Defence Ministerial meeting.

These commitments were set against the backdrop of stories leaking about the UK’s own Strategic Defence Review, currently entering its concluding chapter. The Financial Times reported that one person close to the negotiations said: “The chiefs want a budget of 2.65 per cent of GDP but the Treasury is adamant that they should work to 2.3 per cent.” A second official confirmed the gap between the two sides, which amounts to about £10bn a year.

Noted

Healey then joined Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Development Minister Anneliese Dodds, and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle in Germany for the Munich Security Conference, which is underway. Politico reported that diaries and meetings were still looking fluid, but that Lammy would attend a G7 meetig and likely meet Vance (he did). Communications lines briefed to the papers seemed to suggest the Foreign Secretary was keen to urge his European counterparts to try and “keep calm”, and not to overreact to the rhetoric coming out of The White House.

Interestingly, Britain used the opportunity to announce a rebrand of its world-leading AI Safety Institute, which, as Kyle announced, would now be the AI Security Institute. Alongside this name change came some actions: an MoU signed with leading frontier AI firm Anthropic, the creation of a sovereign AI unit, new partnerships across government, including with the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, the Ministry of Defence’s science and technology organisation “to assess the risks posed by frontier AI”, and a new criminal misuse team which will work jointly with the Home Office to conduct research on a range of crime and security issues which threaten to harm British citizens. 

As with the AI Summit at the beginning of the week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer chose not to attend, breaking a precedent set by his predecessors Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson. He did, however, have a call with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Over the line, Starmer told Zelenskyy that the UK would always offer concrete support for Ukraine, for as long as it’s needed, and that he was unequivocal that there could be no talks about Ukraine without Ukraine. Further, he “reiterated the UK’s commitment to Ukraine being on an irreversible path to NATO, as agreed by Allies at the Washington Summit last year.”

---

UN SECURITY COUNCIL

• The UK strongly condemns tragic death of World Food Programme staff member in Houthi detention

• The UN must play a vital role in stabilising and rebuilding Syria

DEFENCE

• The Defence Select Committee met Finland’s President Alex Stubb at the Embassy in-country. Both sides “share the view that decisions concerning Ukraine cannot be made without Ukraine.”

• More than 100 high-skilled jobs will be secured in the UK thanks to a new £250 million contract to upgrade the communications systems of the Royal Navy’s warship and submarine fleet.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Two British nationals have been arrested in Iran and given access to the UK ambassador, Hugo Shorter, according to reports.

SANCTIONS

• Britain announced new sanctions on high-profile figures working in the Russian Government and supporters of Russian state-owned business.

• Stephen Doughty, Europe Minister, announced sanctions on Syria would be changing in light of the new regime.

SOFT POWER

• His Majesty King Charles III sent a condolence message following the death of former Namibian President H.E. DR Sam Nujoma.

• The British High Commission in Fiji will provide $120,000 to support the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s legal and public relations initiatives from January to March 2025.

• HHJ Martin Picton, Director of International Training at the UK's Judicial College, recently visited Tonga to run training for Tongan judges.

TRADE

• Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary, spoke at Samsung KX in London. “Ahead of our Trade Strategy’s publication, we are leveraging our relationships with Europe, China, India and the Gulf and beyond so businesses can make the UK their base to connect with global markets.”

AI AND EMERGING TECH

• Britain renamed its AI Safety Institute to become its AI Security Institute. The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology signed an MoU with leading AI firm Anthropic,

• Home Office Intelligence and Border Force are working together to seize suspect freight consignments at the UK border by automating some of the risk analysis.

• UK-KSA private sector ties in the biotechnology sphere grew closer, with an MoU between two companies attended by the British High Commissioner.

• In South Africa, a North-South partnership between the Genomic Surveillance Unit (GSU) at the Wellcome Sanger Institute and the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI) at Stellenbosch University (SU) received approximately 8.7 million RAND in funding from the FCDO.

AID

• The Foreign Office published a breakdown of its £9.3 billion ODA for 2024/25, including by country. Country aid spending in Africa will be £1.5 billion, the Middle East and North Africa £852 million, and £280 million in the Indo-Pacific. Other departments are also responsible for spending.

• Christine Rowlands, High Commissioner, visited Belize Botanic Gardens to celebrate the success of a biodiversity restoration project funded by a £200,000 grant from the UK’s Darwin Initiative.

DIPLOMATS

• Ameer Kotecha has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to the Republic of Liberia.

• Gareth Bayley, Ambassador to Egypt, met Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawi.

• Abda Sharif, Ambassador to Yemen, met Yemen’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Dr. Shaya Zindani

The inaugural UK-Kyrgyz Strategic Dialogue took place in London. The communique was signed between the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic, Meder Abakirov and Stephen Doughty, the Minister for Europe, and included a discussion of how Britain could help finance various initiatives in the critical-mineral rich nation.

It’s the latest in a calibrated push, begun under then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary David Cameron, into the Central Five Asian region traditionally dominated by Russia and China. Trade between both nations has seen significant growth recently, with 2024 bilateral trade up 73.5% from the previous year to £144 million., but there’s a strong chance the UK’s exports are being shipped on to Russia.

Some of the components covered in the dialogue included:

• Critical Minerals & Private Investment – The UK will support Kyrgyzstan’s critical minerals strategy and attract private investment in key sectors.

• UK Export Finance (UKEF) Collaboration – Continued discussions on infrastructure financing, following the UK’s £1.8bn credit line announcement in December 2024.

• Education & English Language Support – Expansion of UK-Kyrgyz education cooperation, including the delivery of 60,000 English language textbooks.

• Human Rights & Governance – Emphasis on international human rights obligations, civil society consultation, and UN Human Rights Council cooperation.

Share

Hello,

It has not been a good week for the so-called Liberal International Order™. Under President Donald Trump, the United States has begun its withdrawal from the UN Human Rights Council, sanctioned the International Criminal Court (ICC), flouted diplomatic norms by threatening punitive tariffs on Canada and Mexico, ignited the early stages of a trade war with China, and gutted USAID funding in a manner that will invite legal challenges for years to come.

The purpose of these notes is not to scrutinise every manoeuvre from the White House—that task is best left to others, where analysis often ranges from the breathless to the hyperpartisan. What is worth noting, however, is Britain's unenviable position: it remains, as ever, downstream of Washington’s decisions. Structural realities—size, economic weight, population—play their part, but decades of strategic deference have only deepened this dependency. For Westminster, the President giveth, and the President taketh away.

Let us consider, then, a moment from history. A century ago Britain found itself in economic turmoil. War debts had soared—national debt stood at £7.4 billion in 1919, up from £650 million in 1914—while growing competition from the United States and Japan further strained British industry. Britain owed approximately £978 million to Washington, making it highly sensitive to American financial policy. Meanwhile, Japan had doubled its textile exports by 1925, undercutting British producers in India and China, and contributing to a 25% decline in British textile exports between 1920 and 1925. British politics found itself sitting downstream of decisions made in capitals across the other side of the planet.

History does not repeat itself, but its rhythms are unmistakable. Britain’s economic and foreign policy fortunes have long been shaped by external forces. The question, then as now, is whether it can shape them in return.

Finally, a mea culpa. In last week’s Telegram, I mixed up Harold Wilson and Harold MacMillan in the introduction, naming and interchanging both of them. My own fault for listening to The Rest Is History’s excellent series on the latter former as I typed the introduction late at night. Thank you to those who got in touch to correct me.

One final note: please do forward these emails around your department, firm or unit. It helps!

— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, visited Brussels for a European Commission meeting. It marked the first time a Downing Street dweller had done so since Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016. Alongside meetings with his continental counterparts, the Prime Minister spoke to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

2. The Prime Minister spoke to the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, on the phone. They “welcomed an international conversation on the importance of trade and collaboration between allies and partners.”

3. He also met Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof in Downing Street. Among other topics, the pair discussed "moving at pace to seize on the opportunities offered by new and emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, quantum and semiconductors" and agreed to “pursue a new innovation partnership to accelerate growth in key technologies.”

4. British media reported Prime Minister Starmer would not attend the AI Safety Summit in France next week. AI safety is currently one of the areas Britain has a comparative advantage.

5. Donald Trump, the President of the United States, said he was considering imposing tariffs on Britain.

6. Navin Ramgoolam, Mauritian Prime Minister, told his country’s Parliament that he expected Britain to offer new terms as it hands over the Chagos Archipelago. His comments were picked up by British media. National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell flew to Washington to update his American counterpart, while Foreign Secretary David Lammy is expected to discuss the issue with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at next week’s Munich Security Conference.

7. Anneliese Dodds, Britain’s International Development Minister, set out a new approach to funding foreign aid. Speaking at the London Stock Exchange, she announced private sector funding would be included.

8. Peter Mandelson, the new British Ambassador to the United States, spoke to The Financial Times. Asked about his links to Jeffrey Epstein, he told the paper “I’m not going to go into this. It’s an FT obsession and frankly you can all fuck off. OK?” On the US-UK relationship, he highlighted technology as a priority area for collaboration, saying “It would be disastrous if we in the west lost the advanced technology race with China.”

1. The Europe Challenge

This week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer became the first British leader to attend a European Council meeting since Brexit. It formed part of Britain’s efforts to ‘reset’ relations with the bloc, following a messy exit over the better part of a decade, and an effort to stimulate economic growth.

Two tectonic shifts are guiding this renewed effort at engagement. The first is Ukraine. A land war on the continent for the first time in the 21st century has revealed varying levels of weakness among European countries on their defence, energy and industrial focus. This has reinvigorated talk of working together to tackle shared issues presented by Russia. The second is, frustratingly for Europeans, the United States. Donald Trump has long criticised NATO countries for not paying their fair share towards defence - a largely accurate point - and is pondering tariffs on the bloc as a punishment for the current trade deficit. Speaking to reporters this week, the President said “I can tell you that, because they’ve really taken advantage of us – you know, we have over $300 billion [£241.5 billion] deficit...they don’t take our cars, they don’t take our farm products. They take almost nothing, and we take everything, from the millions of cars, tremendous amounts of food and farm products.”

To that end, Starmer’s trip to Brussels yielded some noteworthy lines. The first was a hedge. Britain, he said, was "not choosing between the US and the EU" when it came to preferred partners: “We want to deliver an ambitious UK-EU security partnership to bolster NATO…We can't be commentators when it comes to matters of peace on our continent, we must lead.” Second, on defence, Starmer’s meeting with Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte saw the latter urge Britain to up its defence spend (not included in the Government readout). Starmer remains non-commital, simply saying a pathway to 2.5% GDP spend will be set out at some point in the near future, even as Trump calls upon NATO partners to commit to 5%. Third, the Prime Minister spoke to his Danish counterpart Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen. Their discussion had a strong High North focus - keep an eye on this going forward - and various other aspects of the defence relationship.

Also in Brussels: Nick Thomas-Symonds, Minister for European Union Relations. He delivered a speech delivered at the EU-UK Forum, focusing on three key areas: security, safety, and prosperity. His speech also outlined the British Government's commitment to implementing existing agreements, reducing trade barriers, and fostering closer cooperation on issues such as research, innovation, and law enforcement.

Back in London, the second EU-UK Counter-Terrorism Dialogue took place. Officials “discussed a wide range of counter-terrorism issues, including assessments of the evolving terrorist threat landscape, and an exchange of best practice on the UK and EU response, in order to protect our citizens”, and, notably, “technology, including responses to terrorist content online and emerging technologies.”

2. Chagos chaos continues

On Wednesday, opposition leader Kemi Badenoch asked Prime Minister Keir Starmer to clarify what exactly was going on with the Chagos Archipelago, currently in the process of being handed to Mauritius alongside an unknown number of billions of pounds. “When Labour negotiates”, she charged, “our country loses. Yesterday, we heard that the Government offered £18 billion for Mauritius to take our territory in the Chagos islands. This is money that belongs to our children and their children. This is an immoral surrender, so that north London lawyers can boast at their dinner parties.”

Chagos is back on the radar primarily because Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam updated his National Assembly on the latest at the beginning of the week. Among the revelations were the fact that the lease terms may be changing, and that Britain may now be paying billions linked to inflation. The Prime Minister also noted Britain was now waiting for sign-off from Donald Trump. Ramgoolam later rowed back on some of his claims, but the British Government’s lack of transparency and real justification has caused outrage in Parliament and the British media, and concern in Washington.

A further difficulty for successive Downing Streets has been its confused communications strategy. First, it cited national security concerns as a reason to not share details, leading to the comical interview with Sky News at the top of this section. Then, feeling the heat, a (clearly briefed) article appeared on Bloomberg late in the day, adding a new angle: Britain is concerned about the control of a satellite communications system used by London and Washington to run vital military operations. The concerns relate to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), a UN agency that regulates the use of electromagnetic frequencies. Asked why the UK could be stopped from using the system, the spokesman said: “Because of the legal judgments in relation to the base.”Next up, a Downing Street spokesperson addition: “The electromagnetic spectrum at the Diego Garcia base would not be able to continue to operate without a deal. This system enables secure communications in the region. It's something that the UK and the US have currently got unique access to, and it is the case that without legal certainty over the base (it) is something we would lose access to.” The Telegraph then revealed this line of reasoning was made by Philippe Sands, an international lawyer and long-time friend of Starmer, who “represented Mauritius in a case against the UK.”

The legalise is the sticking point in Westminster and beyond. Government sources point to a 2019 International Court of Justice advisory ruling that the separation of the Chagos Archipelago from Mauritius in 1965 (before the latter getting its independence) was unlawful under international law and that the United Kingdom should withdraw its administration so the islands can be reunited with Mauritius.

However, the geopolitical reality of the day is different. The United States is not signed up to the ICJ, and it seems unlikely that the Trump administration will have any sympathy for British reasoning if this is the key factor. Britain is not compelled to follow this ICJ advisory.

3. A new approach to development aid

Anneliese Dodds, the Minister for Development, delivered a keynote speech at the London Stock Exchange this week. The reason for location was driven by the content of the pitch: a vision for the British Government partnering with the financial sector to drive global growth and tackle development challenges. Dodds highlighted four key areas of focus: mobilising private capital, reforming international financial institutions, addressing unsustainable debt, and scaling up insurance for disaster resilience.

Two significant shifts are guiding this renewed effort at global engagement. The first is the recognition of interconnected global challenges, from conflicts to climate change, which require collaborative solutions. The second is the untapped potential of emerging markets, particularly in Africa, which present substantial investment opportunities for UK financial institutions. Dodds emphasised the importance of harnessing the City of London's expertise, stating: "Clearly, the City of London and wider UK financial sector must be at the heart of how we meet the opportunities and challenges of our time." The UK's efforts to increase the World Bank's risk appetite, potentially unlocking an additional $30 billion over ten years, is reminiscent of the Marshall Plan's philosophy, albeit on a global scale, recognising that economic development abroad can yield significant domestic benefits.

The Minister announced several key initiatives:

1. Up to £100 million in additional funding for MOBILIST, the UK's flagship public markets programme.

2. A new Investor Taskforce to increase UK private investment for climate and development in global markets.

3. A $50 million deal with Standard Chartered Bank to expand infrastructure investments in developing countries.

4. Support for the first ten transactions implementing 'majority voting provisions' in lending to low-or-middle-income countries.

The speech also highlighted recent successes, such as the issuance of the first $500 million Climate Investment Funds Capital Markets Mechanism bond on the London Stock Exchange, which was oversubscribed six times over. Climate Minister Kerry McCarthy praised the bond issuance, stating: "This is a historic moment for tackling the climate crisis, with the first bond raising $500 million to accelerate the global clean energy transition and support the flow of climate finance to developing countries."

Noted

The British Government is calling on all creditors, including private sector lenders in the City, to offer Climate Resilient Debt Clauses in their sovereign lending by the end of the year.

---

UN SECURITY COUNCIL

• Ambassador James Kariuki, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, delivered a statement at the UN Security Council meeting on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and a speech on Israel and UNRWA.

DEFENCE

• Luke Pollard, a Defence Minister, met his counterpart from Montenegro, Minister Krapović, to sign a new “agreement deepening our important defence relationship.”

• Jonny Hall, Director of Cyber ​​Policy at the Foreign Office, gave a speech on countering disinformation at the Japan-NATO Strategic Communications Conference held in Tokyo.

• UK Deputy Chief of Defense Staff Air Marshal Harvey Smyth held talks with Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh on ways to enhance military cooperation between the two countries. Discussions focused on "ways to enhance military cooperation between Libya and the United Kingdom, support and build Libyan military capabilities, and cooperation in training and development areas."

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, spoke to Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun. They discussed the ceasefire, security and humanitarian challenges. Lammy met Finnish Minister for Foreign Affairs Elina Valtonen in London.

• Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍), Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, awarded the outgoing British representative to Taiwan John Dennis a medal in recognition of his efforts at promoting closer Taiwan-U.K. relations during his four-year tenure.

• Hamish Faulkner, a Foreign Office Minister, spoke to Palestinian Authority Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr Varsen Aghabekian.

• Stephen Doughty, a Foreign Office Minister, met his Czech counterpart Jan Marian.

• Gareth Ward, Ambassador to Georgia, met Maka Botchorishvili, the Georgian Foreign Minister. The two discussed the “current developments”, with Botchorishvili emphasising the “UK’s recent actions taken towards Georgia”, which, considering “the traditionally friendly ties”, “unfortunately do not contribute to the positive agenda of the existing relations”. Britain recently sanctioned several individuals.

SANCTIONS

• Britain expelled a Russian diplomat.

SOFT POWER

• King Charles spoke to Kenya’s President William Samoei Ruto. The latter tweeted: “we discussed Kenya’s long-standing and close ties with the United Kingdom. I am glad that Kenya and the United Kingdom have a shared passion for nature and climate conservation.”

• King Charles hosted The King of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in Buckingham Palace.

• Prince Edward, the Duke of Edinburgh, visited India. His trip focused on championing young people and promoting non-formal education globally.

• Both The Royal Highnesses Duke and Duchess of Edinburgh visited Nepal. They were met by Foreign Secretary Amrit Bahadur Rai, and the pair held a meeting with President Ram Chandra Poudel.

TRADE

• The British High Commission in Colombo, the International Trade Centre (ITC), and the Sri Lanka Export Development Board (EDB) SheTrades Sri Lanka Hub have launched two handbooks to provide Sri Lankan women-led businesses with essential knowledge to enter the UK market.

AI AND EMERGING TECH

• The Deputy National Security Advisors of the UK and India met in London to evaluate progress under the UK-India Technology Security Initiative.

ECONOMY

• The pound fell sharply after the Bank of England cut interest rates as expected, but forecast higher inflation and weaker growth, with two officials calling for an even larger rate cut.

• The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), in collaboration with the British Standards Institution (BSI) and the Foreign Office, held a two-day standards partnership workshop on Green Hydrogen.

AID

• Eleanor Sanders, the UK Human Rights Ambassador, visited Bangladesh.

• Mark Bryson-Richardson, the Foreign Secretary’s Representative for Humanitarian Affairs in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, met Minister of State for International Cooperation Maryam bint Ali bin Nasser Al Misnad.

IMMIGRATION AND DIASPORA

• Karen Pierce, the outgoing British Ambassador to the United States, is rumoured to be assigned as UK Special Envoy to the West Balkans, with a focus on immigration.

DIPLOMATS

• Angus Lapsley has been appointed UK Permanent Representative to NATO in succession to Sir David Quarrey.

• Paul Turner, High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands, met Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele.

• Michael Nithavrianakis, Ambassador to Somalia, met Somali Police Force Commander General Asad Osman Abdullahi Diyano. They discussed how the UK could provide additional support to further equip and train the Somali Police Force in combating threats posed by extremist groups.

• Brian Jones, High Commissioner to Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu & Ambassador to the Republic of Marshall Islands & Federated States of Micronesia, discussed a range of national and regional issues with HE President Naiqama Lalabalavu of Fiji.

Britain and the Philippines have intensified their bilateral relations over the last couple of years, with a renewed focus on trade, defence, and maritime cooperation. The latest iteration of this took place in London this week, as both nations attended the second strategic dialogue, co-chaired by Philippine Undersecretary for Bilateral Relations Maria Theresa Lazaro and Catherine West, Minister for the Indo-Pacific. Launched in 2021, this series spans five areas of cooperation: political affairs, defence, maritime, economic and trade, and climate and environment.

Lazaro met several notable Whitehall figures, including Owen Jenkins, Director General for Indo-Pacific, Middle East and North Africa at the Foreign Office, and Nick Catsaras, UK Deputy National Security Adviser for International Affairs, “for discussions on regional security matters.”

Key developments from the dialogue include:

1. New trade, defence, and maritime cooperation agreements are expected to be concluded in 2025.

2. A Joint Framework Agreement is to be signed in March 2025.

3. Discussions on ASEAN-UK cooperation ahead of the Philippines' ASEAN chairmanship in 2026.

4. Exploration of trade and investment opportunities with the new UK Trade Envoy to the Philippines, George Freeman.

Share

Hello,

In 1960, Prime Minister Harold MacMillan embarked on a six-week journey across Africa. The world around the Prime Minister, and Britain, was changing. Independence was sweeping the African continent, Cold War angst and proxy manoeuvring intensifying among its new leaders, and confidence in British strategy was at a low following a severe battering during the Suez Crisis some four years earlier. The Conservative leader visited Ghana, Nigeria, the Central African Federation (modern-day Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi), and South Africa. MacMillan’s tour culminated in his historic "Winds of Change" speech to South Africa’s parliament, which would redefine Britain’s approach to African independence.

Half a century later, Britain again finds itself thinking about its strategy towards Africa during a time of tectonic change. The continent is one of complexity, containing the majority of the world’s active war zones, two economies set to be in the global top 15 by 2050, a quarter of tomorrow’s population, and at least six different types of governance to contend with. Western geopolitical engagement has changed rapidly. In 2000, France was the top trading partner for 15 African countries, the US for six, the UK for five, and China for two. By 2020? China was the top trading partner for 29 African countries, the UAE for six, and France for three. The US and UK, once actively engaged through trade and geopolitical necessity during the Cold War, are no longer a top trading partner for a single African country.

For the last six months, the government has been thinking about what it needs to create a successful ‘Africa Strategy’. Executed poorly, it will mark the latest in a long line of promised but hardly delivered ‘resets’ to relations with the continent’s various governments. Talk from diplomats is that the approach will be based on “mutual respect and partnership”, covering growth, climate and security among other areas. But in the meantime, engagement carries on. Indeed, as I analyse in this Africa-heavy Telegram, in the last fortnight alone British politicians have been in the north, south, east and west, focussing on aid, AI, diplomacy and commerce.

Still lacking? A Prime Ministerial visit. No one’s realistically asking for a six-week tour. But it’s revealing that Keir Starmer has yet to make the journey.

One final note: please do forward these emails around your department, firm or unit. It helps!

— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)

Subscribe now

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, spoke to President Donald Trump. The two world leaders discussed economic and security matters, particularly in relation to the Middle East.

2. Keir Starmer and David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, issued long statements on Holocaust Memorial Day, the latter in collaboration at a reception co-hosted with the Israeli Embassy held at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

3. David Lammy returned from a brief visit to Adré, on the border between Chad and Sudan, and announced £20 million in additional funding. His trip aimed to refocus international attention on the situation in Sudan and find new ways to halt the violence. It also represents the Government trying to get upstream of illegal immigration entering Britain, hence the press release noting “nearly 2,000 Sudanese nationals arrived on small boats in the year ending September 2024.”

4. David Lammy spoke to his new US counterpart, Marco Rubio. Both nations issued a call readout: Washington’s differed from London’s by mentioning both the “malign influence” of China and AUKUS. Analysis I’ve undertaken from open source information reveals they also discussed the DRC, Sudan, and Chagos. The Foreign Secretary also travelled to Tunisia to announce new funding to tackle irregular immigration.

5. Peter Kyle, the Science and Technology Secretary, concluded a visit to Brussels. He met European Commissioners and announced a renewed push for UK-EU science collaboration, including a national campaign to boost participation in Horizon Europe and membership in four European research consortia. The trip aimed to strengthen joint efforts on global challenges like climate change and AI development, while advancing the UK’s AI Opportunities Action Plan to position Britain as a leader in transformative technologies.

6. Kerry McCarthy, a Climate Minister, was also in Brussels. She met with a series of international partners including Belgian Energy Minister, Tinne van der Straeten and the European Union’s Principal Adviser on Energy Diplomacy, Tibor Stelaczky. Stephen Doughty, Europe Minister, was in Montenegro “to strengthen European security & economic growth through vital partnerships in the Western Balkans.”

7. Britain joined other United Nations Security Council members in urging Rwanda to stop supporting M23 rebels pushing into the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo. An emergency meeting on Sunday evening saw calls for peace talks to resume, while M23 captured large parts of Goma, a key city on the DRC’s eastern border.

8. Catherine West, the Minister for the Indo-Pacific, visited Sri Lanka for the first time in her role. She met the country’s Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya and discussed strengthening bilateral ties, but a meeting with the President fell through.

9. Douglas Alexander, the Economic Security Minister, visited Botswana and South Africa. Lord Collins, the Minister for Africa, announced new funding for clean energy projects on the continent.

10. Britain joined Australia, Canada, the EU, and New Zealand to release a joint statement following Belarus’ sham presidential elections. The UK sanctioned nine individuals and defence sector entities in Belarus in coordination with Canada.

11. Britain signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the state of Colorado. It covers cooperation on notable areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum, among other sectors.

1. On the Foreign Secretary’s radar

Foreign Secretary David Lammy had an active week. Returning from the border between Sudan and Chad, he delivered a statement to the House of Commons updating politicians on what he witnessed (video above from his Twitter). The House was supportive of the Government’s approach.

Whilst Lammy made the progressive case for sending a new £20 million aid package, an accompanying press release also noted that “nearly 2,000 Sudanese nationals arrived on small boats in the year ending September 2024.” Speaking in Parliament, he added that “irregular migration from Sudan to Britain alone increased by 16% last year.” The implication is simple: Britain wants to work upstream as much as possible to limit illegal immigration, and seems to be utilising aid as a way of engaging with countries directly to further this aim. This was the sole purpose for Lammy’s visit to Tunisia, which takes place as this Telegram goes live. The Foreign Secretary will be announcing “a new package of up to £5 million to boost UK funded programmes in the region to upskill migrants in-country, making it less likely that they will make dangerous small boats journeys to Europe, including to the UK, and undermine the country’s border security.” Back in London, the Government introduced the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill.

Lammy also spoke to his new US counterpart, Marco Rubio. As with any bilateral discussion, comparing readouts produces evidence of what each country wants to emphasise. For example, London’s readout noted Lammy’s “family ties to Guyana and Secretary Rubio’s family links to Cuba,” and “the challenges posed by China.” Washington skipped the personal touch, instead focusing immediately on foreign policy priorities, which include “addressing issues like the conflict in the Middle East, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and China’s malign influence.” It also mentioned AUKUS, which - like the word malign - had been left off the British readout. Simply pointing these details out was enough to make one of my tweets pick up 40,000 views. A leak to The Telegraph added that Rubio had discussed Chagos - left off both readouts - asking for reassurance that the agreement would not undermine US security interests. Not in the readouts because of the brevity with which it was mentioned was Sudan and the DRC.

2. Escalation and leverage

On Sunday evening, the United Nations Security Council convened an emergency session. It followed credible reports and emerging evidence that a Tutsi-led rebel group, M23, had taken a key city on the Democratic Republic of Congo’s eastern border. Goma is the provincial capital of the Congolese state of North Kivu, and sits in a mineral reach seam. Adding complexity to the concern were allegations that Rwanda’s Defence Forces were aiding the M23 in their assault. Rwanda claims that the DRC is supporting the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, a Hutu militia linked to the 1994 genocide.

In response to the escalating violence, Britain called for an end to attacks on peacekeepers by M23 receiving support from Rwanda at the UNSC, and the Foreign Office produced various updates throughout the week, warning British nationals to leave the region. Foreign Secretary David Lammy spoke to Rwanda’s leader Paul Kagame on the phone, tweeting "I spoke to Paul Kagame and called for de-escalation, outlining the need for Rwanda and DRC to urgently return to the negotiating table.” In comments to Parliament, Lammy was more explicit: “We know that M23 rebels could not have taken Goma without material support from Rwandan defence forces.” Interestingly, Lammy also said Rubio had been the one to raise the ongoing DRC conflict during their call. Kagame did not tweet about his call with the Foreign Secretary.

Few African leaders are as canny at manipulating larger countries to fulfil their own agenda as Paul Kagame. Over the last five years, Rwanda’s leader has extracted hundreds of millions of pounds worth of agreements and aid programmes from Britain, in return for offering collaboration on hot-topic issues in Westminster, most notably illegal immigration. It’s not clear from the public statements if Britain is considering taking these financial commitments off the table in response to this latest conflict.

Subscribe now