SHORT NOTE: 018

Sudan: Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.

Hello,

Thank you for all the feedback and views that many of you shared with me regarding the future of this project. I won’t be self-indulgent, so briefly, here’s a look at the top asks and comments:

• By some distance, requests to cover things sitting off the Westminster radar was the most popular. That’s been noted, and I will continue to draw them out as and when I find them.

• More ‘titbits’ - things that I come across which are deep below the surface but that pique my interest. Noted, and will add more.

• The length is fine - interesting, as I suspect this wouldn’t be the case.

• Brief discussions with diplomats, mandarins, and people of interest in this space. I like that idea, and will seek to find a way to incorporate it. If YOU are a diplomat or other interesting character reading this, feel free to get in touch.

Today’s note is short: I’m travelling for the Easter Weekend. Have a peaceful one folks.

— Sam Hogg

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, ordered the Government to intervene to stop a steel processing site owned by Chinese firm Jingye from closing. British Steel will likely be nationalised in the near future.

2. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, gathered global leaders in London for a conference on Sudan. The African nation has been a priority of Mr Lammy’s since he took up the post last summer, often being raised in his speeches. The conference met mixed results. The Foreign Secretary held a number of bilateral meetings on the sidelines.

3. Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, rowed back on comments around Chinese-owned firms operating in sectors deemed strategic by the British government. Mr Reynolds is due to visit China later this year, as will the Prime Minister and rumoured other Cabinet ministers.

4. Alexander Douglas, the Economic Security Minister, visited China and Hong Kong. His unpublicised journey overlapped with a British MP being denied entry into Hong Kong to visit their grandchild.

5. Hamish Falconer, a Foreign Office Minister, visited Oman. He was in Muscat to observe talks between the US and Iran in seeking a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear problem.

6. Kerry McCarthy, a Climate Minister, visited Malaysia. She discussed energy transition issues and met with her counterparts.

7. Angela Eagle, Home Office Minister, visited India. She discussed border control issues with her counterparts.

8. Vernon Coaker, a Defence Minister, visited Colombia and Guyana.

9. Tony Radakin, Chief of Defence Staff, visited Saudi Arabia. He was in Riyadh for the eighth gathering of the ‘Dragon Group’ of Middle East defence chiefs.

10. The British Government sent £752 million to Ukraine in the latest tranche of payments. It also sanctioned Foxtrot Network, a criminal gang linked to the Iranian regime.

11. John Bew, the former foreign affairs adviser to three Prime Ministers, was brought back to help the Government craft an upcoming security strategy. Another highly respected Whitehall security figure, Tom Drew, was appointed Ambassador to France. Mr Drew was most recently Director General, Defence and Intelligence at the Foreign Office. His wife, Joanna Roper, is the British Ambassador to the Netherlands and Permanent Representative to the OPCW.

1. Sudan Conference

KEY POINTS:

• Britain assembled represenatives from over a dozen countries and institutions in London to discuss Sudan. The gathering marked the second anniverary of the country’s civil war.

• A planned communique failed to emerge after several Arab states refused to sign. Many of these states - especially the UAE, Egypt, Turkey and Iran - are heavily involved in the Sudanese conflict via proxies.

• Despite this, the G7 foreign ministers put out a statement, and Britain announced further funding for the conflict’s victims.

“I do not regard the procuring of peace as a matter in which we should play the role of arbiter between different opinions…more that of an honest broker who really wants to press the business forward.” In Diplomacy, his book on the subject, the late Henry Kissinger attributed that quote to Otto von Bismark, around the Congress of Berlin in 1878, convened to settle tensions in the Balkans after the Russo-Turkish War. Mr Kissinger

A century and a half later, Britain’s Foreign Secretary finds himself in an unenviable position not too dissimilar. While the focus may now be on a different continent, David Lammy’s comments on the conflict in Sudan reflect a similarly realpolitik approach to bringing it to its end, both on humanitarian grounds, and to stop illegal immigration (a domestic priority of the Labour Government).

Quoted

“Many have given up on Sudan. That is wrong. It’s morally wrong when we see so many civilians beheaded, infants as young as one subjected to sexual violence, more people facing famine than anywhere else in the world. We simply cannot look away.”

Foreign Secretary David Lammy

Some background: this conflict is primarily a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary group the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo. The UN has characterised this as the “world’s largest hunger crisis”, with over 25 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. Over 10 million people have been displaced, both internally and to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia, and South Sudan. Much of Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, is in ruins, and other cities have been besieged or destroyed. The conflict has led to widespread shortages of food, water, medicine, and fuel.

Britain has taken a prominent role in responding to this complex geopolitical and humanitarian crisis:

• Diplomatic Efforts: The UK is one of several countries working to resolve the crisis, often issuing joint statements with the US and Norway. The UK holds the position of ‘penholder’ on Sudan at the UN Security Council, leading the council’s activities on the country. Mr Lammy has prioritised the issue in the Foreign Office.

• Humanitarian Aid: Britain has significantly increased its humanitarian funding for Sudan. It provided £38 million in aid in the 2023/24 financial year and had committed to doubling this to £89 million in 2024/25; the Labour government pledged an additional £15 million. During the conference this week, the UK announced a further £120 million in life-saving aid for the 2025 to 2026 financial year, intended to reach over 650,000 people with food, nutrition, and support for survivors of sexual violence. The total UK spend on Sudan, South Sudan, and Chad is over £220 million in the current financial year.

• Advocacy and Condemnation: The UK has strongly condemned the ongoing conflict, atrocities, and human rights violations. Mr Lammy has been vocal in calling for an immediate ceasefire, the protection of civilians, and unhindered humanitarian access. He also visited the Chad-Sudan border to witness the impact of the conflict. The UK has also imposed sanctions on commercial entities linked to both the SAF and RSF to pressure them to halt fighting.

• Support for Civilian Transition: The UK has often reaffirmed its support for a democratic transition in Sudan and emphasises that any resolution must include the voices of Sudanese civilians.

Adding further complexity to the situation, multiple external actors are backing the warring factions, increasing the conflict's lethality and muddying the waters for British diplomacy. Many of them were present at the conference in London:

• The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are allegedly backed by:

  • Chad and the United Arab Emirates (UAE): There have been numerous credible reports of both providing funding and weapons to the RSF. The UAE's involvement is linked to its strategic interests in Africa and the Middle East, its sourcing of fighters from both factions for the Yemen war since 2015, its position as the primary importer of Sudanese gold, and its reported multibillion-dollar plans for Red Sea ports. Despite a UN panel of experts finding these reports "credible", the UAE denies involvement. This is a difficult issue from a British perspective, as London and Abu Dhabi are closely interlinked diplomatically, financially, and strategically.

  • Wagner Group (Russia): Soldiers from the Wagner Group, with ties to Russia, have actively backed the RSF. While the direct link between Wagner Group (The Company to insiders) and the Kremlin is not always as direct as it’s made out to be, Russia’s hand is in play.

• The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are reportedly backed by:

  • Egypt: Egypt has maintained close ties with the Sudanese army.

  • Turkey: Turkey is also supporting the SAF.

  • Iran: Iran is reportedly supplying drones to SAF forces.

  • Russia: Recent reports suggest Russia may be switching its support from the RSF to the SAF, providing weapons and ammunition in exchange for establishing a naval logistics base on the Red Sea.

Noted

David Lammy was the first British Foreign Secretary to visit Chad.

The summit brought together foreign ministers and high-level representatives from Canada, Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Norway, Qatar, South Sudan, Switzerland, Türkiye, UAE, Uganda and the USA, alongside high-level representatives of the League of Arab States (LAS) and the UN. As noted above, several of those nations are backing elements of the rival factions. This perhaps goes some way to explaining why the summit failed to produce a joint communique from all members: Sudanese media reported disputes between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE over the wording of the final statement reportedly scuttled hopes for a unified declaration.

Quoted

“Sudan’s government had previously criticised the organisers for excluding it from the meeting while inviting the UAE, which is accused of destabilising the country.”

Sudan Tribune

DEFENCE

• Britain’s outgoing High Commissioner to Australia, Vicki Treadell, told Australian media "AUKUS is assured. We are very confident on that front. No doubt of it, not a scintilla, not from me, not from the British government."

• Italy's defence minister has claimed the UK is not fully sharing technologies from the Tempest next-generation fighter jet project with his country and Japan.

• The Government’s sweeping Defence Reform programme will not require formal Parliamentary approval.

• Britain’s ambassador to Somalia, Mike Nithavrianakis, met the new Defence Minister.
  

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Britain and France issued a joint statement of concern about the latest events in Haiti.

• British High Commissioner to Ghana, Harriet Thompson, met Ghanaian Minister for Interior, Mr Muntaka Mohammed-Mubarak and reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening the robust bilateral ties between both countries.

SANCTIONS

• Britain announced further sanctions to tackle the domestic threat posed by the Iranian regime by sanctioning Iranian-backed, Swedish-based Foxtrot criminal Network and its leader, Rawa Majid, for their role in attacks against targets across Europe.
  

TRADE & BUSINESS

• US Vice President J.D. Vance seemed to indicate a US-UK trade deal was on the agenda in an interview with British press.

• The British government, through the Mobilist programme, has invested N9.5 billion in InfraCredit, Nigeria’s first and only domestic credit guarantee institution, supporting its listing on the country’s NASD OTC Securities Exchange.