SHORT NOTE: 019
Palestine agreements and MENA: Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker
As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.
Hello,
Let’s talk briefly about AI and geopolitics. Stop rolling your eyes.
The United States currently produces some of the world’s most powerful chips, essential for AI systems to operate at the cutting edge. To maintain this advantage, President Biden created a diffusion framework. Under this framework, countries were divided into three tiers. Tier 1 countries, including Britain, can access US chips freely. Tier 2 countries, which cover most of the so-called Global South, face limits on how many chips they can buy. China and other adversaries are placed in Tier 3 and are largely cut off.
The Trump administration is now asking for views on this framework. This week, it was reported that it was considering replacing this tiered system with a set of bilateral agreements. This would allow the United States to tailor access to AI chips on a country-by-country basis, turning chips into a tool of trade and diplomacy.
Two days ago, one of the world’s leading artificial intelligence (AI) companies submitted evidence on its framework. Anthropic stated “we anticipate that extremely powerful AI systems will be built in the next few years, and that these systems will have transformative capabilities that can drive economic growth and strengthen national security.” It added that the timeline it was working on for the arrival of “powerful AI” - loosely defined below - was by 2027.
“Intellectual capabilities matching or exceeding that of Nobel Prize winners across most disciplines—including biology, computer science, mathematics, and engineering.
The ability to navigate all interfaces available to a human doing digital work today, including the ability to process and generate text, audio, and video, the ability to autonomously control technology instruments like mice and keyboards, and the ability to access and browse the internet.
The ability to autonomously reason through complex tasks over extended periods— hours, days, or even weeks — seeking clarification and feedback when needed, much like a highly capable employee would.
The ability to interface with the physical world; controlling laboratory equipment, robotic systems, and manufacturing tools through digital connections.”
While comments from AI companies should always be critically analysed and incentives considered, it does give us room to ponder. Let us look to the future, briefly, as if we were running Britain.
If the world splits into two camps around the future of AI, one potential dividing line is likely to run through the infrastructure that powers it, rather than regulation or ethics. This is not just about talent or regulation; it is about chips, data centres and the geopolitical control of the digital hardware needed to build and run AI.
A United States-led bloc: likely to include Britain, Five Eyes partners, NATO members, Japan, South Korea and others. These countries currently have a clear advantage, as most of the world’s most powerful AI systems are being developed using computing power based in the US, operated by tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft and Google. These firms control huge networks of data centres filled with specialised computer chips, like Nvidia’s H100, used to train the most advanced AI models. That infrastructure gives these countries a strong hand in shaping how AI is built and regulated.
A PRC-led bloc: probably formed of countries from across the so-called Global South, with various African nations using Chinese-made AI systems and infrastructure. China’s tech firms, like Alibaba, Huawei and Tencent, are expanding their own data networks, often offering lower-cost alternatives bundled with loans and infrastructure projects, and already have a significant presence across Africa. Huawei alone built 70% of the continent’s 4G network. These are attractive to many developing countries. But the computing power involved is generally more limited and geared more towards running existing AI systems than developing new ones. Many of these countries are becoming what researchers have described as the “Compute South” or even the “Compute Desert”: places that rely on foreign infrastructure but have little control over it themselves. Note that many countries engaging with Chinese tech firms are doing so out of necessity, not ideological alignment. They often hedge.
What to make of this if you were Prime Minister? This scenario clearly presents a strategic challenge for the United Kingdom. We are aligned with the United States, and will likely remain so. But we also need to engage with countries that are being drawn into China’s orbit, especially in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. If we want influence in this emerging digital world, we will need to offer more than goodwill. So, how could the UK seek to increase its influence among this bloc? That will depend on which domains (compute, data, security, standards) Downing Street chooses to focus on.
As noted in a previous Telegram, Britain has supported Kenya’s national AI strategy, and held talks with Gulf countries about cloud infrastructure. Recent bilateral discussions with Qatar covered AI health collaboration at length. In South America, Brazil could also be a valuable partner for data centres. But research shows that these relationships will not deepen unless they are backed by real action. Countries are choosing partners based on who can offer tangible support, such as data centres, technical training or help setting digital standards.
But these outreaches probably won’t make significant inroads into that bloc. So a second, more realpolitik play, would be to work out which nations could be partnered or incentivised to serve as a counterweight to the PRC in this group.
India is a good example. It is often described as a natural ally of the West, but in reality it plays both sides. Indian political elites are adept at hedging, at strategic engagement on their own terms. It trades extensively with China, buys Russian oil, and cooperates with the West on select terms. Securing India’s support on AI issues will require more than warm words. It will take investment, credible incentives, careful diplomacy, and a very complex understanding of Indian elite’s ambitions and incentives. The same is true across much of the so-called Global South.
The key point is this: countries that do not host the computer infrastructure needed to train AI will have little say in how it is built. At present, the United States and China are shaping the map. Britain must now decide if it wants to help shape the rules of this new system, or accept a position where it follows the decisions made by others.
Apologies for missing last week’s note. I’ve been flat out. I’ve also started writing long-form essays aimed at red-teaming Westminster’s thinking for fun. This first argues that British Steel’s situation is a symptom of a deeper issue. My next one is on illegal fishing and a plan to tackle it.
— Sam Hogg
Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, attended the funeral of Pope Francis in Rome. He met President Donald Trump, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and President Emmanuel Macron on the sidelines of the historic event.
Angela Rayner, Deputy Prime Minister, visited the Bergen-Belsen concentration camp, liberated by British forces 80 years ago.
Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, welcomed his Indian counterpart to London. Rumours circulated that the Free Trade Agreement was approaching its final stage.
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, visited Qatar and Oman. The trip was pitched through a security lens by the Government.
Mr Lammy and Mr Starmer also hosted Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa in Downing Street.
Britain conducted successful strikes against Houthi targets in the Red Sea supported by the US, using RAF Typhoons. The justification was in response to threats to freedom of navigation.
Chris Bryant and Catherine West, Culture and Indo-Pacific Ministers respectively, hosted a meeting of the UK Soft Power Council in Cardiff.
Douglas Alexander, Trade Minister, met with Kazakhstan Deputy Foreign Minister Alibek Kuantyrov.
The Carrier Strike Group entered the Med and met the Singapore Navy Frigate, RSS Formidable, at sea.
The British High Commission in Nigeria has been forced to deny that a man arrested for smuggling a large amount of weapons was a serving British Army Officer. The alleged smuggler “did serve as a junior rank in the UK Armed Forces Reserves but was discharged.”
Britain and Japan signed a Memorandum of Cooperation on quantum science and technology.
Palestine and Middle East diplomacy
KEY POINTS:
Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy hosted Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa in Downing Street.
Britain and Palestine signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Strategic Cooperation.
The document reaffirmed Britain’s commitment to a two-state solution and noted the humanitarian crisis in the region.
Mr Lammy recently returned from a visit to Oman and Qatar, where these matters - alongside investment - were discussed
Barring Ukraine, few foreign affairs issues have cut across the British public consciousness like the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. No fewer than four British politicians won their seats during the last election after primarily campaigning on Gaza issues, former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is pushing for a Chilcot-esque Inquiry in Parliament, and Labour strategists still fear Muslim voters will coalesce around Gaza-focussed independent candidates rather than theirs.
On a macro level, this is an extremely complex and uncomfortable situation for this Government. Downing Street has sought to try and influence both sides, calling for Israel to obey international laws and supplying them with military aid, whilst urging Hamas to release the hostages and trying to get aid into Gaza. It is very aware that this approach risks appearing incoherent and unsustainable, not just to a domestic audience, but to other key partners in the region (and the so-called Global South more generally, let alone the White House). The ongoing conflict cuts across diplomatic engagement with other nations in the region - the Foreign Secretary’s recent visit to Oman and Qatar both discussed Gaza.
Quoted
“Boosting growth is reliant on building stability. It’s vital we engage closely with partners like Qatar and Oman to strengthen security in the region, this includes countering Iran’s malign activity in the region and bringing the war in Gaza to end.”
Foreign Secretary David Lammy
On Monday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy welcomed Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa to Downing Street. The visit, the first at this level since 2021 during COP, sought to reaffirm Britain’s support for a two-state solution and was accompanied by an aid announcement. The British Government’s readout noted that “discussing the Arab Plan for Gaza, the Prime Minister shared the UK’s support for the Palestinian Authority’s reform programme, which he said is critical. The leaders agreed that a strategic political framework will be necessary as part of the implementation of a two-state solution, and that Hamas must have no role in Gaza’s governance.” The MoU covered nine sectors of discussion, from security to culture, and represented a new chapter of engagement from Downing Street’s point of view.
Days later, Mr Lammy told Peers during a Committee hearing that Britain is in discussion with France and Saudi Arabia over the recognition of a Palestinian state at an upcoming June conference convened by the two countries. The Foreign Secretary stated ”It is unacceptable for any group of people to have lived with no state for longer than I’ve been alive.”
Noted
In line with United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334, Britain does not recognise the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, as part of Israel and distinguishes between Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
The visit followed Mr Lammy’s recent trip to the region. The Foreign Secretary spent the better part of the weekend with Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tarik Al Said and Foreign Minister, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, and Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense Affairs Sheikh Saoud bin Abdulrahman bin Hassan Al Thani. Former Hakluyt man and now FCDO PuS Olly Robbins accompanied him.
Qatar, in particular, remains the primary external actor with working leverage over Hamas, coordinating with the US, Egypt, and Israel on ceasefire and hostage release negotiations. Oman, traditionally a quiet regional balancer and long-time British friend, has emerged as a discreet venue for dialogue, especially concerning backchannel communication between Iran and the West. Britain is keen to build “on Arab and Palestinian-led initiatives” for an end to the conflict in Gaza.
Quoted
“The two Ministers stated that brutal wars and conflicts in places like Sudan and Gaza have devastated the lives of millions. Yet too many in the international community continue to ignore such crises.”
Joint Communique between Qatar and Britain
Discussions with Qatar proved particularly fruitful. Like its monarch-led neighbours, the tiny state is adept at geoeconomics and takes an active investment interest in Britain (somewhere in the region of £40 billion’s worth). To this end, a strategic dialogue attended by the foreign ministers saw plans to build on “the four pillars of trade, investment and economy, defence, security and counterterrorism, leadership on global challenges and people-to-people connections.” The upcoming JETCO will “incorporate discussion across a range of priority sectors including education, creative industries, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, technology and artificial intelligence.” On the defence and homeland security front (a key point for Labour domestically), an upcoming MoU will see both nations work more closely on issues including irregular migration.
A significant part of the Communique covered AI collaboration, which is fairly extensive between both nations. In December 2024, the pair launched a joint research commission to establish a roadmap for collaboration, focusing on areas like compute and AI for development.
Noted
Recent trade data revealed UK imports of Qatari oil and gas (down 74 to 90% respectively) suggest Britain has diversified LNG suppliers post-Ukraine war, favouring U.S., Norwegian, or African LNG under its new energy security strategy.
DEFENCE
Talks between Brussels and London for a security and defence partnership are ongoing with EU ambassadors scheduled to discuss a first draft put together by the Commission's External Action Service next week.
The Ministry of Defence has confirmed that approximately 1,600 military personnel are currently held at readiness to support UK resilience operations
A satellite developed by British academics and engineers is set to become the first in the world to measure the condition of the Earth’s forests in 3D from space.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, spoke to Maroš Šefčovič, European Commission Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security.
Nick Thomas Symonds, Minister for the Cabinet Office, and Mr Šefčovič gave a joint UK-EU statement.
Mr Lammy also spoke to Denis Bećirović, Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The Foreign Office issued multiple advice updates for Guyana this week. The small nation has seen widespread rioting and protests following the death of a young girl at a hotel: many believe a cover-up is in play.
Noted
Following her visit to Washington last week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said that a UK–US Financial Regulatory Working Group in June will focus on digital assets. There will also be an exploration of a transatlantic digital securities sandbox, inspired by US SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce’s proposals.
AI & EMERGING TECH
UK researchers and businesses now have increased access to Horizon Europe quantum and space funding.
British organisations can apply to take part in an EU-RoK Semiconductor Researcher Forum and attend the Global Conference of Innovation Materials 2025 in the Republic of Korea.
The University of Southampton opened a new facility to build the next generation of semiconductor chips, the first of its kind in Europe. By the way, nearly 40% of the UK's 27,000-strong semiconductor workforce is set to retire in the next 15 years.
Quoted
“Our mission is crystal clear; to prevail in the technological contest with China; secure abundant energy in all its forms; and forge robust new industries that deliver both economic prosperity and national security. But, and this point bears emphasis, America cannot achieve this in isolation. Success demands working alongside allies, not apart from them.”
Britain's Ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, in a post to coincide with President Trump’s first 100 days in office.
DOMESTIC AND DIASPORA
The Foreign Secretary confirmed the Government was monitoring spillover from the ongoing India-Pakistan tensions. Significant protests broke out between the two diaspora groups in Britain.
TRADE & BUSINESS
Britain and Nigeria agreed new measures to tackle international fraud and scams.
Trade deals: The media reported that an FTA with India was in the closing stages. On the US, Mr Starmer held off confirming if MPs would be allowed to have a vote on any deal.
A cryptoasset business registered in the UK has been shut down after people in Estonia, Mauritania, Iran, New Zealand, Poland, and Romania said they paid for crypto mining services but did not receive the promised financial returns and were unable to withdraw their assets.
Britain, Kenya, and the County Government of Lamu have joined forces to lay the foundation stone at a new cotton processing facility in Lamu County.
Noted
China supplies just under 10% of UK biodiesel imports and just over 60% of sustainable aviation fuel imports.
DIPLOMATS
Victoria Busby OBE has been appointed British High Commissioner to the Republic of Malta.