Something different

How can I improve this for you?

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar from a Westminster perspective.

Hello,

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. “

Mark Twain

This project is now around four months old. In place of this week’s note, I’m asking for your feedback.

There are now roughly 4,400 of you reading these updates which I produce in my free time. Many of you hold leadership roles across government, business and diplomacy. So I’d like to ask: how can this be more useful to you?

WHAT I’M TRYING TO DO

I write these with three assumptions in mind:

1. You are rich in many things, except one: time.

2. You are intelligent and well read, but constantly navigating a flood of newsletters, research notes, podcasts and competing sources. Many of you are scanning for alpha: the one insight that gives you an edge.

3. You believe that knowledge compounds. One briefing a week, over a year, might prompt an investment or policy decision sparked by something you read here months earlier.

MY CURRENT ASSESSMENT

Here is how I see things, shaped by my professional background and previous work running a geopolitical briefing firm:

• I am trying to track breakthrough developments in artificial intelligence as they emerge. AI is still not being priced properly by policymakers, yet it is likely to be the defining technology of the coming decades. Some countries and companies seem acutely aware of this.

• I will often take a red-team view. Partly a flaw of my personality but also an attempt to challenge groupthink where it might add value. I'm drawn to contrarian angles, though not always by design.

• The notes strike the right balance of editorial commentary for now, but over time (and with compounded understanding), I hope to speak more authoritatively on certain issues.

• This product could evolve to focus more on international trade and finance – debt, gilt markets, bilateral agreements.

• It is probably too long. The bullet points at the end are useful for tracking diplomatic, defence, trade, aid and AI developments, but they may not be valuable to the majority of you.

"A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen."

Winston Churchill

WHAT ARE YOUR VIEWS?

My aim is to anticipate what will matter and put it in your hands before it does. Please tell me what is working, what is not, and what you would like to see more of.

Please do reply to this email if you have a view. I’ll digest all of it and update accordingly.

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While you ponder that, I wanted to highlight some examples of where I’ve brought attention to an issue weeks ahead of it appearing on the mainstream radar.

6 December 2024: Suggested readers “keep a close eye on Bangladesh”, drawing the link between the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her niece, the then City Minister Tulip Siddiq MP, in light of a “theme emerging from bilateral meetings with Bangladeshi counterparts…around the return of laundered money in the UK”

19 December 2024. Sky News and other outlets report that Tulip Siddiq will be facing investigation from Bangladesh over her previous financial links.

17 January 2025: Flagged a series of financial deals signed between Iraq and Britain, covering 13 different projects and sectors.

25 February 2025: The Times reports on BP’s Iraq deal.

21 March 2025: Flagged ongoing British movements in the Balkans, including assigning a veteran diplomat to oversee actions in the region. Noted the building concern over Russian and Chinese influence in niche pockets of Westminster.

9 April 2025: Politico speaks to Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who states Putin wants the Western Balkans as his next “playground.”