Telegram 002
Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker
Hello,
Thanks for all the support so far. This project now boasts about double the number of readers as there were scientists and personnel in Los Alamos for the secretive Manhattan Project, and roughly the same number as those who took part in the Lewis and Clark Expedition at the turn of the 19th century.
If you’re a new reader: welcome. British Diplomacy Tracker is an effort to track, contextualise and analyse British foreign and international economic policy, interspersed with history and trade views. In a time of instant gratification on social media apps, screaming headlines from a dying industry, and a largely detached political elite, I want this to provide a slower, more thoughtful analysis of where Britain currently sits in this new era. It will be free for a while.
To separate this product further from others in this space, I will apply a red-team mindset to my analysis of Britain’s international policies in these Telegrams. In short, that means I’ll be taking a systematic adversarial approach to challenge the British Government’s plans, policies, systems, and assumptions. I want to stress test as much of the thinking as possible - and potentially find areas of alpha in the process.
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— Sam Hogg
Quoted
“The world has changed. Global power is shifting and a third nuclear age is upon us. The era of state competition primarily through geo-economics has shifted to a resurgence of geo-politics. And it will last decades.”
Chief of Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin in his annual RUSI lecture
Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivered his first major foreign policy speech in post. He used his speech to argue that he would not be forced into choosing a side between Europe and the United States.
Defence Secretary John Healey spoke at the London Defence Conference. His department also published a statement of intent regarding the Defence Industrial Strategy.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy attended the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting. He urged allies to increase their defence spending.
The United Kingdom joined the United States, France and Germany to issue a statement on the current situation in Syria. In short, they called for all sides to push for “a Syrian-led political solution to the conflict, in line with UNSCR 2254” [a 2015 UN Security Council resolution pushing for politically-driven peace.]
Minister for the Indo-Pacific Catherine West issued a short statement on the situation in South Korea, urging restraint and caution.
Minister for Europe, Stephen Doughty, issued a statement on the unrest in Georgia, condemning the excessive use of force by Georgian authorities.
MANSION HOUSE
Although perhaps more familiar as a set piece for Chancellors, it is somewhat of a tradition for Prime Ministers to make their way over to Guildhall and deliver a speech setting out their foreign policy vision. On Monday evening, it was Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s turn.
To begin to understand Downing Street’s view of how the world beyond the channel works, I think it’s important to understand three things:
First: Many commentators have mused over what Starmerism is. The Financial Times’ Stephen Bush noted that a “really important thing to understand about Keir Starmer is that he really, really cares about institutions and really values institutional memory and knowhow”, while others have analysed it through the prism of Labour’s history. Let me offer a foreign policy view: Prime Minister Starmer’s entire professional career before Parliament was in law, as was that of Foreign Secretary David Lammy. In foreign policy terms, Starmer and Lammy’s worldview is legal internationalism - where a premium is placed on obeying global laws and norms - which largely chimes with the established Whitehall view. Unfortunately, this view does not tend to get on well with realism, which dictates power and national interest over legal considerations. A recent example of this clash is the Chagos affair - described by The Economist as “mishandl[ing] Britain’s historical obligations and the West’s future military needs in favour of a debatable territorial claim.” Others will likely arise going forward as the geopolitical tectonics continue to shift.
Second: Economic growth is the priority for this Government. A failure to achieve growth, and make its effects felt throughout British society, will likely see Labour lose the next election. So hyper-focused on this mission is the Government that Prime Minister Starmer set out his means for enacting it again this week, noting “the purpose of this Government is to make our public services and economy work for working people [to] strengthen our country in a world that increasingly preys on weakness.” That means growth will mission creep into many aspects of defence and foreign policy. For example, the Ministry of Defence’s Statement of Intent published this week notes “We want to establish a mission-driven Defence Industrial Strategy that ensures defence contributes fully to the Government’s number one mission: to drive UK economic growth”. Growth growth growth is a point being emphasised from the British leader-to-foreign-leader meetings and down through the diplomatic system.
Third: Climate change matters to Whitehall and Downing Street. There is a stated ambition “to become a clean energy superpower”, and the phrase permeates bilateral announcements and press releases, including this week’s Qatar State Visit. Previous Conservative governments pushed for the UK to be a ‘science superpower’, but Labour is more explicitly focused on climate change, reflected most sharply in Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s first ever foreign policy speech at Kew. Ironically, so keen on this is Labour that climate change may offer the first proper look at this Government engaging in ‘progressive realism’: working to fight climate change on behalf of the UK and smaller countries (progressive) means working with powers that have very poor human rights records (realism) like the PRC, Saudia Arabia, and Qatar. In contrast to some of the ‘vibes’ floating around during the Sunak premiership, the idea of making the UK an AI superpower does not feature as significantly.
With these foundational concepts in mind, the Mansion House speech becomes more coherent from a domestic point of view. Connecting the economy to foreign policy formed the basis of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ ‘Securonomics’ approach, and was again outlined in Starmer’s assessment on Monday evening:
“Like never before in our lifetimes, global problems have become local. Geopolitics is on our doorstep, shaping our lives in ways that nobody asked for. Conflicts overseas undermine our security, stir up violence and extremism on our streets and drive up the cost of living.”
As noted, Downing Street has identified climate change as one area where the UK can still exert global influence without being overly constrained by the hard power aspect: it is simpler to give money to vehicles such as the Global Clean Power Alliance than it is to increase the number of troops stationed throughout the Indo-Pacific.
“climate change hits economic growth, leaves us exposed to catastrophic flooding and both of these forces drive unsustainable levels of migration. It all manifests in a feeling amongst very many people that the system isn’t working for them. That it’s time to take back control of our lives, our borders, our livelihoods”
In a recurring theme for Labour’s recent foreign policy rhetoric, Starmer harked back to two influential British politicians from the last century: Clement Attlee and Winston Churchill. The government of the former’s “ambition for the people of this country was unmatched,” while the latter “did not choose” between America or Europe when it came to the national interest. This, the Prime Minister argued, showed a historical precedent that Britain has always been capable of balancing these two geopolitical giants. He said “Against the backdrop of these dangerous times…the idea that we must choose between our allies...that somehow we’re with either America or Europe is plain wrong. I reject it utterly. Attlee did not choose between allies. Churchill did not choose. The national interest demands that we work with both.” It’s not entirely clear who is coherently arguing that the Prime Minister must choose between either, but this was the comment most newspapers focused on. Likewise, Starmer’s choice (along with his Defence and Foreign Secretaries) to once again avoid naming a clear date or time frame for when Britain could be expected to hit 2.5% spending on defence should be noted by Westminster observers: as it will have been by partners and opponents abroad.
Noted
In 1953 - shortly after the period of Attlee and Churchill referenced by Starmer in his speech - 26 of the top leading 30 companies forming the British FT Index were manufacturers in the broad sense. The UK’s population was also 20 million or so people fewer.
On the bilateral side, Starmer mentioned several countries and ongoing conflicts. Russia was heavily criticised, with the Prime Minister warning “We face a near and present danger with Russia as an erratic, increasingly desperate aggressor, on our continent marshalling all its resources - along with North Korean troops and Iranian missiles - aiming to kill and to conquer.” Support for Ukraine has become a given in these speeches, with little change from the previous government. China was mentioned in passing, concerning Starmer being the first Prime Minister to meet a Chinese leader in six years: “We need to engage. To cooperate, to compete and to challenge on growth, on security concerns, on climate as well addressing our differences in a full and frank way on issues.” Finally, Starmer concluded with his closing view on what Britain is and should aim to be: “a constant and responsible actor in turbulent times. To be the soundest ally and to be determined – always – in everything we do.”
Quoted
“The United States' time-honoured interests in the Far East are well known. They are doing their utmost to find a way of preserving peace in the Pacific. We do not know whether their efforts will be successful, but if they fail, I take this occasion to say - and it is my duty to say - that should the United States become involved in war with Japan the British declaration will follow within the hour.”
Prime Minister Winston Churchill in his Mansion House speech, 10 November 1941. The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour would take place less than a month later.
SYRIA
British foreign policy bandwidth - already stretched - has been stretched further on the issue of Syria. A rebel coalition group led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) routed forces belonging to Bashar al-Assad’s regime, gaining a foothold in Aleppo, marching towards Homs, and adding new complexity to a region which has often ended up as a quagmire for British (and other nations) foreign policy ambitions. Syria has become the unhappy staging ground for geostrategic manoeuvres for influence from several powers including Iran, Russia, the United States, China and Turkey - often through proxy groups - and a prominent narco-state in the region. Several companies and organisations are alleged to have profited from the chaos, including Russia’s Wagner Group, and French cement group Lafarge.
For decades, Syria has frustrated the British establishment. As World War II came to a close, it bore witness to a fraught incident in which British forces intervened to stop their French counterparts from killing the local population; so perplexed was Prime Minister Winston Churchill that he telegrammed President Harry Truman to ask for his support in challenging French leader Charles de Gaulle. Half a century later, Britain’s Parliament voted against Prime Minister David Cameron’s aim to participate in military action against Assad’s regime (although Operation Shader saw Britain conduct airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against the Islamic State.) Syria is raised consistently in British bilateral engagement with several other countries, including Russia, Turkey, and the United States. This time around, Britain looks likely to continue to work with allies such as France and the United States to monitor the situation.
Unnoticed by many in Westminster, Syria has spent the last decade turning itself into a narco-state. 80% of the world’s flow of Captagon, an amphetamine-type stimulant pill, comes from Syria, and estimates range in the billions as to how much Assad and his associates are making off the trade. As Carnegie analysts have noted, this in part reflects an administration trying to find new ways of raising revenue: Syria’s GDP is now lower than it was in 1978.
Regional governments are concerned. Captagon is penetrating their societies, and hundreds of millions of pills are being smuggled around the region at any given time. It is a particularly sore point for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which has launched its own “war on drugs” campaign, and Jordan, which has shot and killed smugglers on its border. Beyond fears over its spread into Europe and the United States, Western governments have good reason to try and limit its production: Iran and proscribed terrorist groups profit from the smuggling of the drug.
Quoted
“Trade in [Captagon] is a financial lifeline for the Assad regime – it is worth approximately 3 times the combined trade of the Mexican cartels.”
British Government statement announcing a new sanctions package with allies, March 2023
Last year, Britain and the United States jointly sanctioned eleven individuals associated with the Captagon trade - at least one of those is now presumed dead. In March this year, the UK co-hosted an event with Jordan which brought together the international community alongside expert researchers to discuss the impact of the trade in the region. To this end, the upcoming Prime Ministerial visit to Saudi Arabia may present an opportunity for Britain to exert leverage on this issue again. Further sanctions could follow if regional partners help promote British interests around Syria.
Noted
There are concerns in the House of Lords around the UAE’s relationship with the Assad regime, particularly because “we have supplied the UAE with over £400 million of arms exports.”
QATAR STATE VISIT
Since 2000, Britain has played host to nearly 40 state visits, including President Vladimir Putin, President Xi Jinping, and President Donald Trump (the UK’s GDP growth rate was about 3.15% in 2003, 2.22% in 2015, and 1.4% in 2019 respectively.) This year alone saw three: Japan, Indonesia, and this week, Qatar. Each presents a chance to strengthen the bilateral relationship, advance various initiatives, and look for economic opportunities.
The visit of Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, Qatar’s ruling emir, saw a flurry of activity and announcements. The economic angle is simple: to spur growth, Downing Street has identified the nations forming the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as being key targets for enticing investment into the UK (not for the first time), which is why Prime Minister Starmer is visiting Saudi Arabia imminently too. While recent trade data reveals UK imports from Qatar decreased by 75.3% (£4.6 billion) in the four quarters to the end of Q2 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, this was primarily driven by a massive decrease in gas imports, which fell by 93.9%.
The macro remains that Qatar is a significant investor in the UK, with a portfolio sitting at roughly £40 billion and a new pledge for a further £1 billion in British climate technologies. An immediate winner was British power-house Rolls Royce (which for transparency, I hold shares in), with Prime Minister Keir Starmer stating “Qatar and Rolls-Royce pursuing these opportunities in climate technology is a significant step in our ambition to become a clean energy superpower and further evidence that the UK is one of the best places in the world for companies to develop those technologies.” Rolls Royce shares were up 4% on the week.
Quoted
“This new collaboration aligns with our long-term strategy to invest in the economies of the future.”
Prime Minister of Qatar HE Sheikh Mohammed Abdulrahman al Thani.
Other announcements included:
Aid: Britain agreed to double joint aid funding with Qatar, bringing the total to somewhere in the region of £79 million, which will be spent on the as-of-yet-undefined “mutually beneficial initiatives which tackle key global challenges.”
Geopol: The UK and Qatar will coordinate closely on regional files of mutual concern, including the Occupied Palestinian Territories, the Horn of Africa, Sudan, Bangladesh, Syria and Yemen.
Defence: The pair agreed to broaden many aspects of the defence relationship, including cooperation on the Typhoon and Hawk partnerships, strengthening cooperation between the UK’s Royal Military Police and Qatar’s Military Police, and agreed a new cyber security MoU which includes building a cyber security skills base and strengthening cyber resilience.
AI: The existing UK-Qatar Strategic Dialogue will be upgraded with a new pillar on science and technology, bringing together experts to discuss collaborations in priority areas of mutual interest, including AI. Both nations launched a joint AI research commission, “seeking to establish a roadmap for UK-Qatar collaboration on AI that will benefit both countries.”
Genomics and AI: The two nations plan “to set up a shared Genomics Medicine Academy.” Private sector observers in the medical tech space may note with interest the vague pledge to use genomics to “overhaul healthcare, as well as for work focusing on AI’s scope to drive economic growth and make public services more efficient.”
Noted
Since first appointing overseas representatives in West Africa, UK Export Finance’s credit exposure in the continent as a whole has grown exponentially from £3 million (2017-18) to £1.3 billion (2023-24).
DEFENCE
John Healey, the Defence Secretary, delivered a speech at the London Defence Conference. His department published a Statement of Intent regarding the Defence Industrial Strategy.
Tony Radakin, Chief of Defence Staff Admiral, delivered his annual RUSI lecture. He warned “the world has changed. Global power is shifting and a third nuclear age is upon us. The era of state competition primarily through geo-economics has shifted to a resurgence of geo-politics.”
David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, met Caspar Veldkamp, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. The pair held discussions as part of a Strategic Dialogue.
Lord Vernon Coaker, Defence Minister, met with Chilean Undersecretary of Defence Ricardo Montero for the 21st UK-Chile Defence Dialogue.
The Combined Space Operations Initiative (CSpO) partners exchanged views on space threats, conducted a tabletop exercise, and endorsed a joint statement. The group is formed of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The UK and India have signed a Statement of Intent on the design and development of electric propulsion systems for the Indian Navy.
The UK joined the EU and 15 other partners in endorsing shared principles on the security and resilience of subsea cables at the UN General Assembly.
Mike Nithavrianakis, Ambassador to Somalia, and Brigadier Oliver Bryant met Somali Chief of Defence Forces General Raage to discuss security and defend matters.
The Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) claims to have “developed the forward presence concept, basing ships overseas to increase availability and global reach, and proving that 5 ships could do the work of 11. This could save the taxpayer £10 billion compared to conventional requirement setting.”
The Vietnamese Embassy in London held a ceremony to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Vietnam People's Army (VPA).
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, attended a NATO Ministerial meeting in Brussels, and an Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) meeting in Malta.
Stephen Doughty, the Minister for Europe, issued a statement of concern regarding the ongoing situation in Georgia.
Varuzhan Nersesyan, Armenia’s Ambassador to the UK, participated in the second meeting of the Armenia All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) in the current Parliament. The Ambassador “provided an in-depth briefing on the latest developments in the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process.” Amnesty International has accused both countries of committing war crimes. The meeting finished with “a tasting of Armenian wines and brandy.”
SANCTIONS AND CRIME
The Government announced a full asset freeze against Brian Sheridan, which they have reasonable cause to suspect is involved in terrorist activity by facilitating terrorism and associating with members of the New Irish Republican Army (‘New IRA’).
The Government also announced three further sanctions on individuals connected to ISIS and Al-Qaeda.
The City of London Police decided not to take action against anyone over a complaint made by the Pakistan High Commission in London alleging an attack on Justice (retired) Qazi Faez Isa and the High Commission’s diplomatic car outside the Middle Temple by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) activists on October 28 2024.
TRADE
Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, met Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Prime Minister of Greece. The pair discussed strengthening the bilateral relationship; the Greek readout noted particular emphasis on the economy, shipping and tourism.
Lord Collins, the Minister for Africa, attended the UK-Francophone West and Central Africa Trade and Investment Forum in London. Britain closed a finance deal worth over £60 million to help Cameroon improve vast swathes of land for agriculture, supported by British firms.
MIGRATION
Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivered a speech, dubbed a reset, aimed at setting out his government’s aims. His Plan For Change stated “This government will reduce immigration – legal and illegal. Because that is what working people want.”
AI AND EMERGING TECH
Debbie Weinstein, Google’s UK leader, said the company was keen to build more AI infrastructure in the UK, but “we need to have the right conditions for that, which is around sort of energy costs, access to clean energy.” Between 2004 and 2021, before Russia invaded Ukraine, the industrial price of energy tripled in nominal terms, or doubled relative to consumer prices. Google published an advisory document on how the UK could unlock the “AI opportunity” in September.
The Government published terms of reference for its UK Semiconductor Advisory Panel. In short, it’s chaired by Patrick Vallance and will meet in person once a quarter.
The British Geological Survey team arrived in Tanzania, where they partnered with the Geological Survey of Tanzania “to provide technical assistance on critical minerals.”
Quoted
“Despite this being a time of immense challenge for the public finances, we are determined to drive forward nuclear through both public and private investment."
Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, at the Nuclear Industry Association's Nuclear 2024 conference.
ECONOMY AND AID
Anneliese Dodds, the Minister for International Aid, announced £19 million of funding for Gaza on a visit to Egypt, Israel, and the Occupied Territories.
The UK and Qatar committed to double their joint funding of projects to tackle humanitarian and development crises around the world. The figure now sits at £79.4 million.
A UK-funded system, the Regional Electronic Cargo Tracking System (RECTS), has been hailed as an innovative platform for driving growth and speeding up trade within the East Africa region. RECTS is credited with reducing the time taken for cargo trucks to move from Mombasa to Kampala from 21 days to just 4-5 days.
British artists will earn new royalties when their works are resold in New Zealand following a negotiated Free Trade Agreement.
ENVIRONMENT
Baroness Chapman, the Foreign Office Minister for Latin America, delivered a speech at Canning House. She discussed her work so far in post, and the relationship Britain is trying to carve out with Latin America.
David Whineray, the Foreign Office Global Health Director, was in Thailand to discuss relevant issues with his counterparts.
DIPLOMATS
Melinda Bohannon, Director General for Humanitarian and Development at the Foreign Office, was in Pakistan. She met the Minister of Finance “to discuss progress on Pakistan’s IMF-supported programme, and ongoing UK technical assistance to support the Government of Pakistan’s economic reform priorities.”
Martin Longden, Ambassador to Libya, met Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. Local media reported both sides discussed the return of British oil companies to work in the country.
Marianne Young, High Commissioner to Tanzania, met President Hussein Ali Mwinyi and Minister of Tourism and Heritage, Mudrick Soraga. British travellers make up the 4th largest group of visitors to Zanzibar, with over 34,000 British tourists visiting the islands this year.
Laure Beaufils, Ambassador to the Philippines, said China’s recent in the region actions raised tensions and the risk of miscalculation, and called for them to adhere to international law.
Vicki Treadell, High Commissioner to Australia, hosted a lunch with several diplomatic peers focussing on the UK’s CPTPP accession.
David Wallace, Acting High Commissioner to Malaysia, and YB Datuk Seri Utama Tengku Zafrul Aziz, Malaysia’s Minister of Investment, Trade, and Industry, jointly unveiled the countdown to the UK’s entry into the CPTPP.
Thomas Coward, outgoing High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands and Nauru, was hosted by Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele. The Prime Minister thanked Coward for his work and Britain’s support. He noted “the Solomon Islands further appreciate the opportunity for our young men and women to be enlisted in the UK Naval Army.”
Alistair Long, Ambassador to Bahrain, met Yasser bin Ibrahim Humaidan, Minister of Electricity and Water Affairs. They discussed “fostering constructive collaboration with Bahrain for the benefit of both nations and their people.”
Philippa Saunders, Deputy Director for China, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia at the UK Department for Business and Trade, met Uzbekistan's Ambassador, Ravshan Usmonov. “The British representatives also expressed strong support for Uzbekistan’s efforts to join the World Trade Organization (WTO), commending the country's progress in this regard.”
Noted
The Government has pledged to publish a new Critical Minerals Strategy in early 2025. It will be the third such strategy in three years.
Keep a close eye on Bangladesh. The country experienced significant political turmoil earlier this year which culminated in the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina (aunt of the UK’s City Minister Tulip Siddiq MP) and the arrival of an interim administration, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus.
Britain watched the change closely - there was initially talk that Hasina would flee to London - and has issued statements of support for the new administration. Two issues are worth scrutinising further.
The first involves the interim government’s annoyance over British Parliamentary activity and debate following their arrival. In a meeting between British High Commissioner Sarah Cooke and Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain, the latter explicitly raised strong discontent over what it calls "misleading statements" cited in a British Commonwealth APPG report. In this report, the Parliamentary group recorded over 2,000 “atrocities” since the regime change - and noted “there is evidence emerging that hardline Islamists are becoming increasingly politically influential and visible.” This was then sent to Foreign Secretary David Lammy and shared with the media, and the matter was raised in Parliament too.
Noted
One of those pushing the Foreign Office for more information was Labour’s Barry Gardiner MP. He asked the Foreign Office to update Parliament on “the situation in Bangladesh and recent attacks on the Hindu community there.” Gardiner’s constituency, Brent West, has large Hindu and Muslim communities.
Touhid told local reports “Members of parliament can say whatever they want; there is nothing anyone can do here. But I have requested the British high commissioner to inform the British government of Bangladesh's position on this issue.” The High Commissioner seems to have dealt with it deftly for the moment, telling Touhid “that she will pass on the message and [that] Bangladesh’s mission in London can also take steps to communicate the accurate narrative.”
A second theme emerging from bilateral meetings with Bangladeshi counterparts is around the return of laundered money in the UK. A meeting this week saw influential adviser Mahfuj Alam, a key player in the recent revolution, tell Cooke: “Laundered money has gone from our land to your land. We want that money back to run our economy.”
Britain seems keen to play ball, but requires specifics. To this end, diplomats visited the Central Intelligence Cell (CIC) of the National Board of Revenue (NBR) in Dhaka and expressed a willingness to look into these issues, and back in London, Indo-Pacific Minister Catherine West responded to anti-corruption NGOs in a vague but largely supportive letter. One individual that seems to be drawing attention? Bangladesh’s former Land Minister Saifuzzaman Chowdhury. An Al-Jazeera investigation “revealed that Chowdhury was able to buy 360 homes in the UK alone since 2016,” to the tune of somewhere in the region of $500m (including homes in other markets) despite “a $12,000 annual limit as part of the nation’s currency laws on the amount a citizen can take out of Bangladesh.”
Interesting read - looks like it must take a lot of work to put this together.