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Saudi Arabia, Mali, Syria: Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker
Hello,
Here’s a test for you. Which nation am I describing?
It’s the fastest-growing economy in the world, with growth projections of 34% GDP this year alone.
It extracts hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil daily, and recently found new oil reserves potentially numbering 11 billion barrels.
It’s the UK’s largest trading partner in the region.
Have you got it? If not, the answer can be found in section two of this Telegram, because Foreign Secretary David Lammy is currently visiting the country as you read this.
Before we get into the bulk of today’s Telegram, some brief housekeeping. First, if this has been forwarded to you within your department or company, please consider signing up (for free) below. Think of it as a small kindness in lieu of paying. Second, I’ve added a United Nations Security Council section at the end. The UK’s permanent position on the UNSC is often touted as a significant piece of geopolitical capital, so I think it’s worth looking more closely at what we’re actually doing with it. Finally, next week will be the fourth and final Telegram of 2024. Thanks for all the support so far!
— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)
Noted
Monday morning: Cabinet Office Minister Pat McFadden promises a “relatively swift decision” on whether Syrian group HTS will remain proscribed.
A couple of hours later: Prime Minister Keir Starmer directly contradicts this, saying there is no decision pending as it is “far too early” to decide.
5PM Monday: Foreign Secretary David Lammy tells Parliament that nothing has “been put to me” regarding whether the UK will pause Syrian asylum claims.
5PM Monday: BBC and other outlets report the UK will pause Syrian asylum claims.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The visit was primarily focused on drumming up investment “into cities and regions across the UK” and forms part of a British effort to get a Gulf free trade agreement. The two Arab nations extracted closer defence and AI ties among other agreements in return for their capital. Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, visited Saudi soon after.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves met finance ministers in Brussels. She talked “to three key areas of the UK-EU relationship: tackling shared challenges, including the war in Ukraine; championing free trade as a driver of economic competitiveness; and strengthening bilateral economic partnerships.”
Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Barbados and Guyana. His trip focused primarily on climate and security matters. He was joined by Foreign Office Minister Baroness Jenny Chapman.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy delivered a statement on Syria in Parliament. Outlining the UK’s support for the Syrian people and Labour’s value-based assessment, it fell short of setting any clear strategies for the next steps. He also announced Britain would be reducing its engagement with Georgia. It followed weeks of political unrest and government crackdown in the country, with Lammy said “tarnish Georgia’s international standing and fly in the face of Georgia’s constitutional commitment to a European future.”
Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds visited Canada. He met some of Canada’s largest public pension funds & institutional investors.
Minister of State for Development Anneliese Dodds visited Malawi and Zambia. She signed agreements focused on the green economy.
The UK joined the US-Bahrain Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement (C-SIPA). Minister for the Middle East, Hamish Falconer, travelled to Bahrain for the announcement.
1. GULF TRIPS
Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Cyrpus, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia this week, on a trip aimed squarely at “driv[ing] investment into cities and regions across the UK.” This marked the third time a senior British government delegation had visited Saudi Arabia since Labour took office: roughly one trip every fifty days, per my analysis.
The first Prime Ministerial visit to Cyprus in over half a century saw Starmer and President Nikos Christodoulides agree to work closely on illicit finance - an area of policy focus for Britain. The Prime Minister also delivered a speech of gratitude for the station British troops. As per the most recent trade data available, the UAE remains the UK’s largest trading partner in the Middle East, and a meeting with Emirati leader Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MBZ) yielded a promise of closer ties on AI, defence and security, alongside a diplomatically crafted note saying the pair “shared their perspectives” on the situation in Syria. A similar conversation with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), saw Starmer present his “Plan for Change” and an acknowledgement that “Saudi Arabia was already playing a central role in supporting growth and job creation in the UK, especially through the green energy sector.” Naturally, there was the inclusion of a human rights segment: “Reflecting on Saudi Arabia’s reform agenda, the leaders discussed the steps taken by the Crown Prince’s government to improve human rights under Saudi’s Vision 2030.”
Quoted
“None of us wants Syria to become like Libya next door.”
Foreign Secretary David Lammy in a debate on Syria. Libya and Syria are separated by four countries and 2300 or so kilometres.
Key announcements are as follows:
Defence: Britain and Saudi Arabia agreed to a “step change” in their defence agreement, with a vague mention of collaboration on “combat air”. The UK will support the initial training of hundreds of Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) recruits and provide equipment, through contractors, to help them.
Illicit finance: Britain agreed to help Cyprus establish a new National Sanctions Implementation Unit “to crack down on illicit Russian finance flowing through Europe.”
Clean energy: World's first commercial production of graphene-enriched carbon fibre announced, with £250 million investment into a research and innovation hub in Greater Manchester expected to create 1,000 jobs. Oxford-based HYCAP to invest £785 million in developing hydrogen mobility clusters across the UK, creating over 1,000 jobs and aiming to remove 25 million tons of transport-related CO2. UK's Carbon Clean will partner with Saudi Aramco on modular carbon capture technology, targeting the creation of 2,000 jobs in the UK.
Housing: International Investment Gate to invest £41 million into the regeneration of Brunswick Mill in Stockport, resulting in 277 flats and 24 commercial outlets. Next Generation SCM to collaborate with Saudi City Cement Company to produce sustainable cement, driving £200 million investment and creating over 200 jobs in the UK and Saudi Arabia.
Syria: Additional £11 million of humanitarian aid.
Noted
Saudi officials warned of “implications for existing and future Saudi investment in the UK which we are told is more than £100bn” if the UK government did not intervene in the legal case of a London-based dissident currently suing the Saudi government.
The quote comes from a summary, seen by The Guardian, drawn up by civil servants in a briefing pack for a subsequent ministerial visit to Saudi Arabia by Kemi Badenoch, the current Conservative leader but the then trade secretary, in May 2024.
British macro: Under Labour, Britain will seek to dress engagement with the Gulf countries as furthering the progressive aims of climate and AI collaboration. In return, they will also move on defence issues. Notably however, the UK-UAE bilateral has been strained of late. The previous government blocked a UAE-backed £600 million takeover bid for the Telegraph Media Group in early 2024, causing Britain’s deputy Prime Minister to undertake a secret visit to the Emirates to try and mend ties. Some months later the UK called for a UN Security Council meeting to discuss the conflict in Sudan. During this meeting, a Sudanese Armed Forces representative accused the UAE of backing the opposing Rapid Support Forces, allegations which the UAE strongly denied (Britain had not invited the UAE to partake in the debate). British politicians have also used some strong language to criticise the country’s record on various issues - all of which displease Emirati officials and soured the relationship further.
On the ground macro: Oil brought Saudi Arabia and the UAE screaming into the global geopolitical order in the late half of the 20th century. Today, both nations are engaged in a race to establish themselves as AI and data centre powerhouses to diversify and capitalise on the next major energy-linked sector. In simple terms, data centres are the backbone of modern computing, providing the necessary resources for processing, storing, and managing vast amounts of data and applications. As a recent Tony Blair Institute report notes, “Compute resources are the driver of opportunity in the intelligence era. This infrastructure – facilitated by an ecosystem of institutions, talent, governance initiatives and technical partnerships – will shape economic developments, as well as the future of sovereign power and international influence.” The former plans to invest $100 billion in "Project Transcendence," aimed at building AI infrastructure and attracting talent, while the latter leads in data centre capacity with 235 megawatts compared to Saudi Arabia's 123 megawatts.
Efforts to capitalise on “compute diplomacy” have drawn the attention of global powers in the process. One instance saw the United States actively pressure a leading UAE firm - and by association the country itself - to distance itself from China on certain AI matters (a move which paid off, given Washington and Dubai signed an AI agreement in September, and OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman met with UAE officials around the time too).
When engaging with Britain on AI, the UAE has shown political and financial support, promising to invest £10bn into British clean energy, tech, life sciences, and infrastructure through the Sovereign Investment Partnership and supporting the UK’s AI Safety Summit pledge. On the overall compute front, the picture looks slightly bleaker for Britain. As the Tony Blair Institute report noted, despite having “a strong compute ecosystem on which to build…The UK is simply building data centres at a slower pace than its peers…any data-centre operators cite the planning system as a common explanation for why the UK has failed to build data centres quickly enough. One council recently refused plans to build a data centre because it would spoil the views from bridges over a busy motorway.”
2. A NEW QATAR EMERGES
If you’ve scrolled down to find out which country I’ve described at the top, the answer is of course Guyana (congratulations, I’m sure the calibre of reader I have means you already knew the answer and didn’t cheat at all…)
Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Caribbean Minister Baroness Chapman spent the latter half of the week in Barbados and Guyana, in a trip focussing on “new partnerships key to strengthening national security” per the British government’s press release. So what’s on the agenda?
In Barbados, Lammy will:
Announce that Britain will finalise agreements aimed at preventing organised crime and reducing violence in the country, with a planned knock-on effect for the UK. It will be put forward at the IDB Latin America & Caribbean Security Ministers Conference.
Travel with Prime Minister Mia Mottley to areas damaged by the recent hurricane, and announce new UK funding to help countries in the region harness green energy resources and move away from fossil fuel use, and set out a new programme to help protect forests and tackle illegal logging.
In Guyana, Lammy will:
Meet with President Irfaan Ali to discuss how to boost commercial ties between both countries, alongside tackling issues of common concern, including the climate crisis.
Push for a major infrastructure deal for British construction businesses to help in the expansion of Guyana’s main international airport.
The British macro: Guyana provided Britain with nearly half a billion pounds worth of crude oil in the year ending Q2 2024, and its oil extraction remains in the early stages relative to other global competitors. Interestingly, the Tony Blair Institute is also present in-country, working with Guyana’s Ministry of Health (MoH) to develop the nation’s Digital Health Strategy - Blair himself has a working relationship with President Ali.
Quoted
“This is why Guyana is such an interesting country because you are going to have to develop. You will have the capacity to develop with the oil and gas industry but at the same time you want to be responsible stewards of the environment so you, in a way here, personify the dilemma that the world has.”
Former Prime Minister Tony Blair, August 2023
The commercial relationship is being pushed further than just oil. Prime Minister Keir Starmer met President Ali at the recent Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting, promising closer ties on wider finance and climate. In recent comments, British High Commissioner Jane Miller told local media “My first piece of advice: the time is now to come and see Guyana. You won’t understand the incredible opportunities Guyana holds until you see them for yourself,” a statement borne out in the data: the country is the UK’s fastest-growing export market for goods and services, with a 2,150% increase in value since 2013. Guyanese Finance Minister, Dr. Ashni Singh, speaking in 2023, continued “I will say that previous trade missions have recorded an extremely strong success…50% of the companies that come in on British trade missions have already contributed at least some transaction in Guyana.”
Noted
In 1953, 133 days after the democratically elected government of Cheddi Jagan and the People's Progressive Party (PPP) took power in what was then British Guiana, Britain suspended the constitution, dismissed the government, and replaced it with an appointed administration. The Parliamentary debate from that year is fascinating.
On the ground macro: Britain is hardly the only country trying to woo the world’s fast-growing economy. Guyana and Qatar held their first political consultation at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation this week, and the United States counts itself as a significant top-five trading partner. Like many nations, Guyana has a national development strategy called the Green State Development Strategy: Vision 2040.
3. NEW ENGAGEMENTS
Minister of State for Development Anneliese Dodds was in Malawi and Zambia this week, on a visit aimed at "Driving Growth" per her team’s press release. It’s the Minister’s second trip to the continent since the election, which also coincides with the 60-year anniversary of UK-Zambia diplomatic ties.
In Malawi, Dodds announced:
£39 million funding over five years for education, which aims to accelerate learning and double the number of children with basic mathematics skills by age 10
£2.5 million in humanitarian assistance for 285,000 people ahead of the cyclone season
In Zambia, Dodds announced:
Reaffirmation of the UK-Zambia Green Growth Compact, with aims to drive £2.5 billion of UK private investment into green projects
A new New Memorandum of Understanding on energy sector support will be signed, along with plans to deliver on growth and clean energy missions
Noted
One in four humans will be born in Africa by 2050, and half the continent’s population will be under 25 years old.
British macro: Ahead of the general election earlier this year, Labour promised a ‘reset’ with the African continent. This is not the first time, nor will it be the last time, an incoming British administration has indicated it wants to work with African nations. So what is Labour hoping to bring to the table?
First, a new approach. While talk in Westminster with regard to Africa often mumbles along the lines of “partnership, not paternalism”, there has been a lack of sustained and focused strategic engagement. For example, former Conservative governments failed to assemble investment or partnership conferences on a scale coming close to China’s FOCAC (and cancelled the 2024 meeting at short notice). Several of Africa’s economies are on the path to be top 20 globally by GDP in 2075 (per Goldman research), and the continent’s critical minerals abundance- sub-Saharan Africa alone holds roughly 30% of the volume of proven global reserves - place it in the strategic zones of interest of both the United States and China.
Second, the offer. The continent hosts several veteran leaders, keen to exert leverage on Britain and other countries in return for access: access to trade, access to the minerals which sit within their borders, access to their growing populations, access to their votes in international institutions. In return, Labour has continued the previously established effort of building security links, but seems to have taken a more active interest in focussing on climate change diplomat too. Worth watching for British companies in this sector.
On the ground macro: Malawi and Zambia will be pleased to have extracted further relief funding and assistance. Thanks to a severe drought and flooding earlier this year, the former struggles with nearly three-quarters (71%) of the population living in extreme poverty. Zambia too experienced its worst drought in two decades and is currently working with the World Bank to restructure debt payments.
Quoted
“The U.S. Department of Defense has advised that any questions the Committee has about the Programme should be directed to the U.S. Government.”
Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems turn away a request to come before the UK's Business and Trade Committee as part of a non-inquiry session on UK arms exports to Israel.
UN SECURITY COUNCIL
Ambassador James Kariuki, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, delivered a statement calling for full respect of the DRC’s territorial integrity.
DEFENCE
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, visited Saudi Arabia.
Maria Eagle, Defence Minister, visited Norway. She met with her counterpart Anne Marie Aanerud to “discuss how we can deepen our already close defence relationship.”
Lord Coaker, Defence Minister, visited Chile and Brazil last week. He toured the two countries alongside several British defence businesses.
British personnel have been thanked for their work in supporting the defence of Poland’s airspace, as the UK’s Sky Sabre air defence deployment comes to an end.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, met the President of the European Council António Costa.
The G7 Leaders released a Statement on Syria.
Britain issued a statement on the agreement reached between Ethiopia and Somalia.
Armenian officials visited London, spending time in the Foreign Office.
SANCTIONS AND CRIME
Baroness Margaret Hodge was announced as the UK’s new Anti-Corruption Champion as National Crime Agency receives new funding.
Britain added 3 new designations under the Global Anti-Corruption sanctions regime, 1 new designation under the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions regime and 1 new designation under the Russia sanctions regime.
TRADE
Australia and Britain signed an agreement to strengthen cooperation on offshore oil and gas decommissioning. The agreement will encourage cooperation in areas including supply chains, knowledge and skills, regulations, and financing. It will support engagement between UK and Australian businesses engaged in decommissioning. It was signed between the Australian Minister for Resources and Minister for Northern Australia, Madeleine King, and the UK Minister for Services, Small Businesses and Exports, Gareth Thomas.
The Chinese Government lifted a ban on certain British pork exports. So pleased was the British Government on this matter - which could see £80 million more for farmers - that its press release included comments from no fewer than four officials and representatives. It has been painted as a success spun out of the Foreign Secretary’s recent visit.
The British Embassy in Veit Nam hosted the CPTPP Business Reception in Hanoi. The event welcomed representatives from the Viet Nam Ministry of Industry and Trade, General Department of Customs, and Ministry of Finance, along with Embassies of CPTPP countries in Viet Nam and around 80 businesses and organisations spanning various sectors such as agriculture, healthcare, banking, finance, and manufacturing.
MIGRATION
Britain and Germany signed a joint action plan to “strengthen co-operation on tackling irregular migration.” It aims “to save lives in the Channel and disrupt the migrant smuggling trade.”
Richard Montgomery, High Commissioner to Nigeria, told local media that Nigerians account for 10% of all new visas issued in the past two years.
AI AND EMERGING TECH
Britain and the USA launched a £40.5 million joint fusion project with Tokamak Energy to advance clean energy technology. Climate Minister Kerry McCarthy said “This project represents a bold step forward in the global race to commercialise fusion. By working with our international partners and the private sector, we are paving the way for a future of clean, limitless energy.”
UKAEA, STFC's Hartree Centre and IBM have partnered to collaborate on designing future experimental fusion powerplants.
GE-Hitachi Nuclear Energy International LLC’s proposals for its BWRX-300 nuclear reactor have progressed to the next step of the design assessment process, the Environment Agency, Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR) and Natural Resources Wales (NRW) announced.
The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) is inviting British semiconductor researchers and organisations to participate in a mission to the Republic of Korea (RoK) in February 2025.
Quoted
“Corruption poses a real threat to the UK. It enables the activities of dictators, smugglers and organised criminals around the world, making our streets less safe and our borders less secure."
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, announcing new sanctions.
ECONOMY AND AID
Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, attended a meeting of EU finance ministers. She told those gathered that “Economic dependencies have become – in Mario Draghi’s words – economic vulnerabilities.”
Richard Crowder, the UK Special Representative to Sudan, led a delegation to Port Sudan - the first official UK visit to Sudan since the outbreak of the conflict in April 2023.
ENVIRONMENT
Britain and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) launched the ASEAN Green Investment Catalyst (AGIC) initiative to accelerate sustainable foreign direct investment (FDI) across Southeast Asia.
DIPLOMATS
Stephen Hitchcock, Ambassador to Iraq, met Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein. They discussed regional matters such as Syria.
Bharat Joshi, Ambassador to Angola, met Minister for the Interior Manuel Homem.
Philip Malone, the new High Commissioner to Tonga, presented Letters of Credence to HM King Tupou VI at the Royal Palace.
Corin Robertson, Chief Operating Officer/DG of Corporate and Finance at the Foreign Office, visited Anguilla.
Charlotte Watts, Chief Scientific Advisor at the Foreign Office, visited Nigeria.
Noted
Parliament’s influential and secretive Intelligence and Security Committee is sitting on a “very interesting and comprehensive report” on Iran. It is in its final form and “is just awaiting completion of the agreed redactions that have to be worked out between the agencies concerned and the Committee.”
The collapse of a regime has tended to offer historians (and intelligence agencies) rich reams of information as administrative buildings are looted, political prisoners released, and stately palaces turned over. I would venture to say that the rapid collapse of the Assad regime - cautiously welcomed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer - raises two questions for British policymakers and thinkers which have gone unasked and unanswered.
First: could this have happened sooner? In the days following Assad’s flight from the country, MENA analysts, observers and commentators are looking back on the years since the Arab Spring began to try and answer that question. There’s been a steady stream of criticism emerging from these groups that then-President Barack Obama’s decision not to enforce his ‘red-lines’ led to Assad staying in power for a decade longer: a view shared by incoming President Donald Trump. This assessment fails to factor in the changing situation since October 7th and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, events that have seen Iran and Russia less able to support puppet administrations around the world or utilise diminishing proxy groups to their advantage. But it does raise provocative second and third-order questions: if Obama had acted, would the Wagner Group have been able to get such a foothold over Syria’s energy fields? Would they then have been able to grow and expand as quickly throughout Africa? And so on.
Second: how should Britain engage in this situation in a way that benefits the national interest, and potentially creates economic opportunities? HTS, the leading group which has formed a provisional government, is proscribed by Britain. Reports emerged this week that the intelligence community has advised that the group does not threaten the UK, which would in turn allow the Government to remove its designation as a terror organisation. Perhaps. Establishment thinkers such as William Hague have offered views, primarily from a geopolitical perspective regarding limiting Iran’s influence in the country.
Whatever happens going forward, the UK should be thinking at all times about leverage. What can Britain get in return that achieves the first principle of keeping its people safe? What are our aims? How much capacity do we have? Here’s one specific thing to think about. Syria’s energy sector remains under widespread sanctions, and its oil and gas fields have passed hands between various factions, including Russia’s Wagner Group and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. Concerns are now arising as to how these sanctions could be lifted in a way that allows the state to control these sites, rather than local groups. Could a UK-led G7 push on aiding these energy sites, and allowing British firms’ involvement in rebuilding Syria’s energy infrastructure, be worth considering?
Good post Sam. Thank you. In particular for reporting on Guyana. I can’t help but note the hypocrisy of the UK government; constantly lecturing about the “evils” of fossil fuels, while going begging for business with those resource-rich countries who benefit greatly from their production.