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Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker
Hello,
Opening his recent book on British grand strategy, former Chief of the Defence Staff and National Security Council member Lord Richards argues “In the absence of a Leviathan power to guarantee the peace, states assess and judge each other’s interests as the basis for policy. If a powerful state abandons its interests in favour of values, however noble they may be, the already anarchic international system of states which is always prone to instability is liable to become more so.”
There is a lack of seriousness and consequence in British foreign policy. The latest development over the Chagos Islands simply illustrates this again.
Consider the following:
2022: Negotiations begin between the administration of former Prime Minister Liz Truss and Mauritian President Pravind Jugnauth on handing the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.
2022: James Cleverly, then Foreign Secretary, initiates talks on the transfer of the Chagos Islands.
2023: David Cameron, succeeding Cleverly, pauses the negotiations.
August 2024: Negotiations resume under the new Labour Government.
September 2024: Prime Minister Keir Starmer appointed Jonathan Powell, a veteran British diplomat and former chief of staff to Tony Blair, as a special envoy to negotiate with Mauritius.
3 October 2024: Prime Minister Starmer and Mauritian Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth announce in a joint statement that the UK will hand sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius. The Biden Administration’s support of the deal is cited frequently by the UK establishment as an influential factor. The details are not made public, but will involve Britain handing money over to Mauritius.
3 October 2024: James Cleverly, now running to be leader of the Conservative Party, tweets about the deal “Weak, weak, weak! Labour lied to get into office. Said they’d be whiter than white, said they wouldn’t put up taxes, said they’d stand up to the EU, said that they be [sic] patriotic. All lies!”
21 October 2024: Media begins reporting on fears the British High Commissioner’s phone may have been hacked during negotiations.
5 November 2024: Donald Trump wins the US election. He is reported to be hostile to the deal and minded to intervene, a view echoed by his British contacts including Nigel Farage.
8 November 2024: Starmer announces Jonathan Powell's appointment as the new National Security Adviser.
11 November 2024: Mauritian Prime Minister Pravid Jugnauth’s administration is wiped out at the election. Incoming Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam’s party wins 60 of the 64 seats.
17 December 2024: Mauritius submits changes to a proposed deal over the future of the Chagos Islands, with the country's new PM saying the original agreement did not benefit his country enough.
In a seminal 1973 article, Michael Spence introduced the theory of signalling in job markets. This addresses how parties convey information in situations of asymmetric information, and in turn, react to that information. It has been a staple of statecraft for millennia. So what could a foreign government make of what this situation signals?
They could view the UK's handling of the Chagos issue as indicative of a foreign policy apparatus that lacks strategic depth, is overly responsive to short-term political pressures, is poor at communicating its decision-making, and is heavily influenced by external actors, particularly the US. They may see a country that can be dragged into making potentially detrimental decisions if it could win them standing - or the perception of standing - on the international stage. They would look around and see who did and didn’t praise the deal, and would in turn assess those actors: are they going to be here in two years, are they a major geopolitical power, and so on? And they may well summarise that this is not a politik that rewards the cut-throat strategic autonomy and leadership needed to remain an influential player in this coming century.
Finally, to mark one month of this project, and the last Telegram of 2024, I have a small scoop at the end which relates to a possible Foreign Secretary trip abroad next year.
Let me know your views, and have a lovely break.
— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)
Noted
Britain has replaced nearly 40% of its High Commissioners to African Commonwealth countries this year, per my analysis.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Norway. He announced a new clean-energy partnership with Oslo and visited British troops stationed in the region. The Prime Minister travelled on to Estonia, meeting the Joint Expeditionary Force and announcing new measures to counteract Russia’s shadow fleet.
Foreign and Defence Secretaries David Lammy and John Healey hosted their Australian counterparts in London for AUKMIN, the annual bilateral meeting.
The new Mauritian government caused embarrassment for Labour by undermining the Chagos deal made by its predecessor. Foreign Secretary David Lammy had called the deal - criticised by incoming US President Donald Trump - a succesful example of ‘progressive realism.’
Defence Secretary John Healey visited Ukraine. He outlined five ‘principles’ “for supporting Ukraine next year”: Increase Ukraine's military capability, enhance training offered to Ukraine by building on Operation Interflex's success, strengthen defence industrial cooperation, increase cooperation with allies to support Ukraine, and increase pressure on Russia.
The UK-China audit faced further delays, with British media reporting the manifesto-promised document would now conclude after Chancellor Rachel Reeves visited Beijing early next year. An ongoing ‘Chinese spy’ scandal around Prince Andrew saw British politicians push for China to be included in an enhanced tier in Britain’s security legislation.
The interim administration in Bangladesh announced Britain’s City Minister, Tulip Sidiq, has been named in an investigation into claims her family embezzled up to £3.9bn from infrastructure projects in Bangladesh.
British media reported Lord Peter Mandelson would be named as the next Ambassador to the United States.
1. Green diplomacy and shadow fleets
Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Norway and Estonia, announcing a new ‘Green Industrial Partnership’ with the former and closer defence ties with the latter. The Prime Minister also jointly announced another round of sanctions against the Russian ‘shadow fleet’.
In Norway, Starmer delivered the latest iteration of his ‘Plan for Change’ in a meeting with Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, saying via press release that this trip was focused on “combin[ing] their world-leading capabilities on clean energy [and to] drive economic growth.” To this end, the Prime Minister wrapped his journey around the announcement of a ‘new’ Green Industrial Partnership. Norway currently provides somewhere in the region of 40% of the UK’s gas, and total trade between both countries sits at £36.1 billion in the four quarters to Q2 2024, a decrease of 27.1% from the previous year (thanks primarily to the fall in oil prices.) New details about the Green Industrial Partnership will be revealed in 2025.
Noted
December 2024: “[Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre] are set to launch a new Green Industrial Partnership today.” British Government press release.
October 2023: “[Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre] welcomed the launch of the new Green Industrial Partnership between the UK and Norway.” British Government press release.
More interestingly, London and Oslo signed a new Strategic Partnership. This included significant sections on the High North (an area largely out of the mind of most British policymakers, but one that could well become as critical as the Indo-Pacific from a defence perspective over the next decade.) This particular theatre is of interest to several global powers, ranging from the West to Russia and China, each with different incentives and goals. Commercially, global warming is already beginning to melt the ice sheets, creating new shipping lanes and opening a new front on the critical minerals push too. An additional agreement was signed between the UK National Authority for Counter-Eavesdropping (UK NACE) and the Norwegian National Security Authority (NSM).
Quoted
“The UK and Norway will continue to invest in our unique, strategic cooperation in the High North, the North Atlantic and beyond. We will enhance our deterrence and resilience capabilities to counter malign hybrid activity, including interference in democratic processes, and protect against espionage, foreign information manipulation and interference, disinformation, malicious cyber activities, hostile foreign direct investment, and physical threats to people.”
Joint Declaration on the Norwegian-UK Strategic Partnership, December 2024
In Estonia, Starmer gathered Nordic and Baltic countries to discuss defence spending at the Joint Expeditionary Force meeting. "Public finances are not in a good place in the United Kingdom”, he opened with, setting the tone for a flat (and consequently criticised) meeting. The 10-country Joint Expeditionary Force gathering saw various reasons offered for most respective countries to not ramp up their defence spending immediately. RUSI’s Ed Arnold has the most incisive view. Starmer’s meetings with Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, President Stubb of Finland, Prime Minister Frederiksen of Denmark and Prime Minister Kristersson of Sweden yielded warm rhetoric but little new information.
The Prime Minister also announced new sanctions on vessels Britain believes are part of Russia’s ‘shadow fleet.’ This fleet - reported to include 545 vessels by Ukrainian intelligence - has been in the crosshairs of the UK, EU and United States for some time. Britain currently leads the way on sanctioning, with over 100 in place, compared to 79 from the EU and 39 from the United States. Alongside Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland and Sweden, Britain announced further action in the form of “tasking respective maritime authorities to request relevant proof of insurance from suspected shadow vessels as they pass through the English Channel, the Danish Straits of the Great Belt, the Sound between Denmark and Sweden, and the Gulf of Finland.”
British macro: Supporting the JEF was a Labour manifesto pledge. This grouping and the promised commitment to have a British presence in the Indo-Pacific represents one of several tugging and pulling commitments Britain has on defence while trying to operate on a (self-constrained) small budget. As Shashank Joshi noted in his Economist article this week, at least 19% of the defence budget next year will have to be spent on the nuclear deterrent alone. As RUSI’s Arnold pointed out, the UK has shown the lowest real-terms defence expenditure increase among JEF members since 2014.
On the macroeconomic front, unnerved investors caused gilt yields to rise to levels surpassing those hit during Liz Truss’s brief tenure in Downing Street this week. “If gilt yields blow above levels seen in the Truss tantrum, Rachel Reeves could end up breaking more promises and being forced to raise taxes or cut spending in order to allay concerns relating to debt sustainability,” one chief investment officer told The Financial Times. The paper also reported on internal MoD analysis which found the “UK needs to spend 3.6 per cent of GDP on defence if it wants to modernise its military while protecting its nuclear deterrent and meeting NATO obligations.”
On the ground macro: The nature of the threats facing JEF has changed since its foundation in 2014. Its evolution towards countering hybrid threats aligns with current security challenges, but questions remain about its long-term role alongside NATO and the willingness of each of the respective governments to stump up the capital to keep it afloat. While nations like Lithuania and Latvia have increased defence spending by over 300% in the last decade, Britain is far in the lead in terms of sheer expenditure. Any major commitments may come under further strain as several JEF nations go to the polls in 2025.
Quoted
“Surprise is something best inflicted on your opponents, not on your own side”.
General Sir Richard Barrons speaks to Parliament’s Defence Committee, December 2024
2. Diplomacy on defence
The annual AUKMIN summit took place in London. Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Defence Secretary John Healey hosted Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles, with Healey and Marles going on an early morning run. They discussed cooperation on issues including Ukraine, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, with a long AUKMIN statement covering matters from China and Taiwan to AUKUS.
Quoted
“The UK and Australia have a long and enduring friendship underpinned by close trade ties that are benefiting Brits and Aussies alike. The growth mission is the central mission of the government.”
Foreign Secretary David Lammy
In what has become a staple of British press releases in this sector, the Government ‘announced’ the deployment of the UK Carrier Strike Group to Australia in 2025. This has been revealed so often that its exclusion from any such press release would be a scandal worthy of an Oscar Wilde play. Elsewhere, concrete job creation emerged from the AUKUS seam, with a Programme Interface Office to be launched in Bristol, specifically “to coordinate and integrate the UK and Australian AUKUS programmes and supply chains.” Both countries also agreed on further details on training Ukrainian troops, and highlighted how “Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security are indivisible”, a key strategic communications line. In the press Q&A afterwards, those looking to learn more about the discussions were left disappointed. Questions from the travelling media pack instead focussed almost primarily on the ongoing ‘alleged Chinese spy’ story.
Noted
In her first eight months as Australia's Foreign Minister, Penny Wong visited 31 countries, 24 of them in the Indo-Pacific.
The British macro: Australia’s left-wing government tends to provide the Starmer administration a source of relief in its diplomatic engagements. Antony Albanese (Albo) and Starmer are chummy, with the former telling reporters he considers them friends at a recent gathering, and both countries share strong cultural ties and values. Wong has dealt with numerous Foreign Secretaries and shares an interest with Lammy in interweaving her own personal history and family background into her worldview. AUKUS, the major defence-related project both nations share, is currently being examined by former National Security Adviser Stephen Lovegrove.
On the ground macro: Australian diplomats will have sought to get their views across on trying to keep Labour’s attention and capacity in the Indo-Pacific, including sharing ideas on the government’s ongoing Strategic Defence Review. Readers with longer memories may remember that Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s last major appearance in London saw her deliver a speech on Australia’s foreign policy push in the Indo-Pacific, where she provided a passing mention of British colonialism. This, naturally, was what the majority of the British media hyper-fixated on. While AUKUS is supported in the UK (or more accurately, largely ignored), it has been the subject of fairly intense debate in Australia.
3. Strategic short-termism
Chancellor Rachel Reeves and City Minister Tulip Siddiq will take leading financial figures on a trip to China early in the new year, which is expected to relaunch the UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue, reported The Financial Times. Bloomberg added that the economic focus would be on:
A UK-China dialogue on capital markets to expand channels for UK-China capital flows in both directions.
Increased connectivity between financial markets and bond markets.
Exploring the resumption of the London-Shanghai Stock Connect – to allow dual listings – which was first proposed in 2015 but halted in 2020.
Deeper cooperation between UK and Chinese asset management and insurance sectors.
Cooperating on financial regulation, including of fintech firms.
Sharing expertise on pensions and taxation.
Commitment to work together to combat fraud and money laundering.
A Minister-led dialogue on climate issues.
The news came against the backdrop of two security stories at the heart of Westminster. The first involved an alleged ‘Chinese spying’ scandal (catnip to Westminster), wherein a Chinese businessman and close contact of Prince Andrew lost an appeal to be allowed back into the United Kingdom. Britain’s intelligence services accused Tengbo Yang of “engaging, or had previously engaged, in covert and deceptive activity on behalf of the United Front Work Department (UFWD), which is an arm of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) state apparatus.” He has worked with Prince Andrew through his company Hampton Group on multiple occasions, many of which can be found in Britain’s papers.
This in turn led to further calls for the UK’s national security legislation to be tightened, particularly the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme (FIRS). In short, FIRS - which falls under the recently introduced National Security Act - is a two-tiered structure with specific requirements aimed at enhancing transparency regarding foreign influence in UK politics. The Political Influence Tier requires individuals and entities to register arrangements aimed at influencing British political life within 28 days, particularly those directed by foreign powers. The Enhanced Tier mandates faster registration (within 10 days) for activities related to specified foreign powers deemed a risk to national security, with the Secretary of State having the authority to designate these entities. Opposition politicians and the intelligence community want China to be placed on the Enhanced Tier - business and successive Conservative and Labour Governments are reluctant.
Quoted
“Placing a major economic partner such as China on the Enhanced Tier…would do huge political and economic damage, and risk doing serious damage to all that the new British Government has achieved in rebuilding a sustainable and balanced relationship with China. Including China on [the] Enhanced Tier has the potential for serious unintended consequences, with the possibility of damaging reciprocal action by the Chinese side, which would impact growth opportunities for the UK economy and jobs.”
China Britain Business Council recommendations for the Government’s UK-China Audit, 13 December 2024
“The real question is whether it’s worth having and the advice from MI5 was very clear: if China isn’t in the enhanced tier, it’s not worth having.”
Former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat relays advice from MI5 in the Commons, 16 December 2024
The British macro: Few relationships receive as much scrutiny in Westminster (and Washington, Brussels and Canberra) as that of the UK-China bilateral. The UK’s fifth largest trading partner - with total trade coming in at £87.7 billion - Beijing also presents some of the most complex security issues Downing Street will have to grapple with over the coming decade. Despite the heightened activity and interest in this over the last decade, successive British governments have failed to understand and articulate the difference between tactical and strategic approaches, leading to rising political anger and a frustrated business community. To differentiate itself from the Conservative government, an out-of-power Labour committed to a UK-China upon its arrival to Downing Street. The concept was simple: understand exposure, weakness and leverage, to formulate strategy and approach accordingly. The overwhelming feeling I get from those I speak to are that this process is not going well at all.
Noted
30 nations have submitted views to Britain’s ongoing Strategic Defence Review.
UN SECURITY COUNCIL
The UK delivered a statement on Libya, noting the “current situation is unsustainable” and calling for a new Special Representative to be appointed to the region.
The UK delivered a statement condemning Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
The UK urged North Korea to cease its support for Russia.
The UK called on Israel to stop illegal settlement expansion on Palestinian land.
The UK noted there is no justification for Iran’s stockpiling of high enriched uranium.
The UK offered support for the Syrian people.
DEFENCE
John Healey, the Defence Secretary, visited Ukraine.
Lord Stuart Peach, special envoy to the Western Balkans, met General Milan Mojsilović, Chief of the Serbian Armed Forces General Staff.
Estonian defence company Frankenburg Technologies is to open a London office. It was announced as part of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s trip to Estonia.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, spoke to Donald Trump, America’s President-Elect. The pair “agreed on their joint ambition to strengthen the close and historic relationship between the UK and the US. They looked forward to working together on shared priorities, including international security and delivering economic growth and prosperity.” Starmer pushed for US continued engagement in Ukraine and the Middle East. Downing Street aides met with Trump’s wider team in Florida.
Keir Starmer welcomed His Majesty the Sultan of Brunei to Downing Street to renew the Garrison Agreement, “securing the future of the British forces base in Brunei.”
David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, met Cypriot Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos in London to open the second annual review of the UK-Cyprus Memorandum of Understanding.
John Dramani Mahama, Ghana’s President-Elect, met British diplomats in -country.
Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah, Kuwaiti Crown Prince, received Prince Edward, Duke of Edinburgh.
Charles III, the King, spoke to Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India.
The Government issued a statement following Niger’s suspension of the BBC.
SANCTIONS AND CRIME
Britain designated five Georgian officials for serious human rights violations.
TRADE
Britain officially joined the CPTPP.
Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, hosted a group of Indian investors and CEOs in Downing Street “to harness perspectives on opportunities for investment and economic growth between the UK and India.”
Timothy Smart, Ambassador to Uzbekistan, told local media Britain supports Baku’s application to join the World Trade Organization.
MIGRATION
The British Government is on track to deliver the highest number of returns for people with no right to be in five years. Nearly 13,500 were removed from the UK since the general election.
AI AND EMERGING TECH
We may see Semiconductors and Critical Minerals become standalone ‘sensitive areas of the economy’. An examination of the Government’s National Security and Investment Act noted “some respondents indicated a number of areas in the NARs that they believed would benefit from clarification and more guidance. This included in particular Advanced Materials, Artificial Intelligence, Defence, and Synthetic Biology, due to the breadth and highly technical nature of these areas. As part of this, there was widespread support for carving out Semiconductors and Critical Minerals from the Advanced Materials section into standalone sections.”
Quoted
“Economic growth is the number one mission of this Government. The UK economy thrives as a result of inward investment, and the large majority of investment into the UK poses no risk to the UK's national security.”
Government report into the National Security and Investment Act, 19 December 2024
ECONOMY AND AID
The British Government launched its Industrial Strategy Advisory Council. Notable members include Greg Jackson, CEO, Octopus Energy, Henrik L. Pedersen, CEO, Associated British Ports, and Dame Anita Frew DBE, Chair, Rolls-Royce Holdings.
Spanish utility Iberdrola named Hugh Elliott, the former British ambassador to Spain, as executive chairman of the unit controlling its assets in countries including France, Germany, Italy, Australia and Japan.
The British Government provided £50 million in aid to Syria.
The Scottish Government will provide £375,000 to help alleviate suffering in Sudan.
The British Government provided £100,000 for sustainable seaweed mariculture in Belize.
ENVIRONMENT
Dominic Jermey, Ambassador to Indonesia, met with Rachmat Pambudy, Minister of National Development Planning, “to further strengthen the UK-Indonesia partnership in sustainable development.”
DIPLOMATS
Rebecca Terzeon has been appointed British High Commissioner to the Republic of Zambia in succession to Nicholas Woolley. She has most recently served as Deputy Director of the Foreign Office's West Africa Department.
Angus McKee OBE has been appointed Ambassador to the Republic of Mali in succession to Katharine Ransome. He was most recently Head of the Intelligence Policy Department at the Foreign Office.
The British Embassy in Belarus tweeted “We are shocked by the arrests of 7 journalists this month, another tragic example of the suppression of free speech in Belarus. 45 media workers are now behind bars.”
Noted
The United Kingdom recently opened its biggest visa application centre in Africa in Lagos, Nigeria.
Are we going to see the first British Foreign Secretary visit to Pakistan in nearly half a decade in 2025, and could Britain be looking to sign a Free Trade Agreement with Islamabad? Missed by every British outlet, British High Commissioner to Pakistan, Jane Marriott, delivered a lecture titled, ‘Pakistan-UK Relations in a New Era’ at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI).
Speaking to local journalists, Marriott “focused on strengthening bilateral ties, discussing key areas such as economic cooperation, defense collaboration, shared security challenges, and the growing importance of addressing global issues like climate change.” Currently UK-Pakistan trade was £4.4 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q2 2024. The High Commissioner also hinted at a visit from David Lammy, framed as an act that would help stabilise bordering Afghanistan. This approach echoes one taken by his pre-pre-predecessor Dominic Raab, who in a 2021 visit to Islamabad visited the Afghanistan-Pakistan border at the Torkham crossing point. An added complication to any potential visit is the ongoing case against former prime minister and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founder Imran Khan: Lammy recently told British MPs this was an internal domestic matter for Pakistan.
Finally, keep an eye on this. Since at least 2017, Britain has taken an interest in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a major infrastructure and investment project that aims to connect Gwadar Port in southwestern Pakistan to China's northwestern Xinjiang region through a network of highways, railways, and pipelines. In her comments, Marriott that it has no objection to CPEC, a slight change in tone since a 2017 pitch by the British Government to “help UK business secure contracts for Chinese investment in Pakistan.”
Pakistan and China are holding high-level meetings, consultations, and reviews on the second phase of CPEC in Beijing. In October 2024, China exported $1.53B and imported $284M from Pakistan, resulting in a positive trade balance of $1.24B. Between October 2023 and October 2024 the exports of China have increased by $326M (27.2%) from $1.2B to $1.53B, while imports decreased by $-82.2M (-22.4%) from $366M to $284M.
Quoted
“Britain is a country of free-trade influence and can be an important partner for China and Pakistan in the delivery of huge infrastructure projects that are being planned between the 2 countries. As part of an outward looking Global Britain, we have a clear ambition to increase trade with both China and Pakistan and UK businesses are well placed to capitalise on the new opportunities the region.”
Statement by former International Trade Minister Greg Hands, 2017