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Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker

Hello,

Happy New Year, and thanks for the continued support.

In the dying months of 2024, a team of experts in Britain’s Ministry of Defence published a document looking at trends until 2055. Running to nearly 500 pages, it included forecasts, guesses, and frank analyses rarely seen publicly from Whitehall. It also included five potential scenarios for how the world will develop over the next three decades.

One particularly astute prediction was about ‘super-powered individuals’. Said the report (my emphasis in bold):

“Over the next 30 years, a number of super-empowered individuals will seek to use the power that they hold as a result of their wealth, ownership of major MNCs or some other special status within society to campaign and lobby governments on issues that they consider important. Although this is not a new phenomenon, the ability of these individuals to achieve real change and influence domestic, regional and global political developments is likely to be amplified significantly through their access to both social and traditional media, which will increasingly provide them with a platform from which to promote their aims. While business leaders have always lobbied governments, the next three decades will see influential individuals changing their approach and expanding their reach not only to lawmakers and policymakers but also to the wider public. The importance of the virtual space means that ownership of social media platforms is likely to become an increasingly important enabler for political and social influence. While this has the potential to be a force for good, with some individuals choosing to campaign on environmental and social issues, for example, it could also be used by wealthy individuals to try to shield their business interests from public or state interference – and even, in some cases, to undermine state governments. How this trend evolves will depend on the character and interests of the individuals in question, and it is impossible to predict with any certainty what the outcome will be.”

Finally, this project soared passed 1,000 subscribers just before New Year and is now closing in on double that. Throughout 2025, I plan on publishing twelve essays. Each will scrutinise some aspect of British foreign, diplomatic or trade policy. Some will examine historical concepts which underpin how we got here, others will look at the thinking behind current strategies, and a select few will put forward some provocative ideas for what could change.

— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)

Noted

Britain has trained over a thousand foreign cadets at Sandhurst, per my analysis of the last available data.

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1. Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and close confidant of incoming President-Elect Donald Trump, called for several British politicians and establishment figures to be jailed. He also tweeted his frustration at erstwhile friend and Reform Party leader Nigel Farage, and asked his 211 million followers if “America should liberate the people of Britain from their tyrannical government.”

2. Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, hosted his French counterpart Emmanual Macron on Thursday evening. The pair discussed matters ranging from artificial intelligence to limiting people smuggling.

3. Tulip Siddiq, the City’s Minister, faced domestic political and media pressure to resign from her position over her links to the ousted Bangladeshi administration. A senior UK official working on UK policy in countering kleptocracy - a state priority of this Government - told the Financial Times: “The challenge here is that ‘I got a gift from this guy out of gratitude because my politically exposed family helped him out’ is the sort of account . . . that we spend our time telling banks is not good enough.”

4. David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, delivered a speech outlining the UK’s foreign policy through to 2035. He also announced a new initiative to sanction people smuggling crime rings and the illicit finances and companies they rely on, and appeared on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme for the first time in his new role.

5. Britain led a new Joint Expeditionary Force project, called 'Nordic Warden'. It’s an AI-powered system to monitor potential threats to undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, following damage to the Estlink2 cable. Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasised the initiative's role in protecting critical national infrastructure and enhancing European security, while Defence Secretary John Healey highlighted its innovative use of AI to monitor large sea areas efficiently. The operation, complementing NATO efforts, targets Russia's shadow fleet and forms part of the Government's broader national security strategy.

6. Sir Oliver (Olly) Robbins was appointed as the new Permanent Under-Secretary at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office. Robbins was most recently at the discreet strategic advisory firm Hakluyt, and before that Goldman Sachs, following nearly four decades in the civil service.

7. British politicians passed a non-binding motion asking the government to consider and then report back to Parliament ways it could use the £300bn worth of frozen Russian state assets in the Ukraine conflict.

8. Britain closed out 2024 with a £61 million aid package. Countries and regions receiving the aid included the Middle East, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Bangladesh, the DRC, Somalia, Myanmar and Mozambique.

1. The Locarno Speech

Quoted

“We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.”

Lord Palmerston, March 1848

When Lord Palmerston stood in the House of Commons on a cold morning in March 1848 to deliver the above assessment, the world on which he was reflecting was in a time of significant change. The "Springtime of Nations" was well underway, with a series of interconnected revolutions across Europe, toppling systems that had been in place for centuries. Political instability at home was a concern, with a Charterist movement gathering steam. A quarter of the world’s population lived and died under the rule of the British Empire, and the Industrial Revolution had seen manufacturing output peaking at about 2.99% growth per year earlier in the decade. New ideas and concepts flowed through the system: scientific discoveries recognisable in our era were being forged, and a Vaccination Act was passed into law a handful of years prior. The era of protectionism was beginning to morph into a pull towards free trade, with the Importation and Navigation Acts on the way out, the recent repealing of the Corn Laws, and a trade treaty with Japan just a decade away. Britain stood at a critical and stimulating juncture: the tectonics underpinning the world were reshaping.

The above, and below two framing statistics for you, are from an unpublished essay on Britain’s foreign policy I began to draft last summer.

• Since 2010, there have been seven Prime Ministers, 10 Business and Trade Secretaries (accounting for name changes), nine Foreign Secretaries (with one each year since 2021), eight Defence Secretaries, and eight Chancellors of the Exchequer.

• Since 2010, Britain has launched seven iterations of its foreign policy vision, ranging from ‘Britain’s Foreign Policy in a Networked World’ to ‘Progressive Realism.’ There have been no fewer than four efforts to ‘reset’ relations with Africa, four significant changes in bilateral policy towards China [a top six trading partner], and a significant exit from the European Union, which includes major defence and trading partners.

In the spring of 2024, David Lammy coined a new philosophy - ‘progressive realism’ [also the name of his Substack -

Progressive Realism

] The then-shadow Foreign Secretary sought to pursue progressive ideas through a realist approach, citing his Labour heroes from the last century as inspiration. On Thursday, Lammy further articulated how this ‘progressive realism’ approach to foreign policy would play out under Labour, in a speech grandly titled “The Locarno Speech”. In contrast to the previous Conservative governments, his Foreign Office would tackle trade-offs head on, and link key domestic issues - the economy and migration - to Britain’s place in the world through to 2035. “We have to accept that there is no going back. We must stop the 1990s clouding our vision. The post-Cold War peace is well and truly over. This is a changed strategic environment…we and our allies must relearn the Cold War manual. Long-term thinking, not short-termism. Consistent deterrence, not constant distraction. Adapting as emerging technology reshapes the strategic environment. Securing strategic stability in an unstable world.”

British foreign policy will now focus on a couple of key things, he said. These include repairing relations with Europe and tightening them with the United States of America, doubling down on the so-called Global South, and delivering - rather than saying we will deliver - actual projects on the global stage. An accompanying Guardian op-ed added further details.

Quoted

"The statesman must think in terms of the national interest, conceived as power among other powers. The popular mind, unaware of the fine distinctions of the statesman's thinking, reasons more often than not in the simple moralistic and legalistic terms of absolute good and absolute evil."

Hans Morgenthau

Notably, Lammy ended his speech by stating he would be integrating artificial intelligence more emphatically into Foreign Office life (I suggest you watch this space). He told the audience “I’m planning to bring AI into the heart of our [FCDO] work…I believe AI can be transformative for the practice of diplomacy, and I'm determined for the Foreign Office to be a pioneer in harnessing its power. An upgraded data science team will sit at the core of this office bringing more empirical rigor to everything we do. This is not a far-fetched vision, the capability already exists…now is the time to mainstream it, liberating more diplomats from their desks in the UK."

The Foreign Secretary also announced a plan for halting illegal immigration and people smuggling, focusing primarily on sanctioning as the main tool in the arsenal. Trying to halt illegal immigration is not new: Australia employed Operation Sovereign Borders in the mid 2010s, the United States built a wall and had Operation Gatekeeper in the 90s, and the European Union ran Operation Triton across the Mediterranean. This plan differs in its focus on upstream sanctions - going after companies producing the parts used by these smugglers, which include Chinese firms.

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2. Westminster worries

Two major diplomatic issues continue to haunt the Government as the new year begins. The first concerns the Chagos Islands, where media reported over the Christmas period that Mauritius has asked for £800 million per year and billions of pounds in reparations as part of the handover deal. This incensed politicians from across the spectrum and was briefly debated on Monday, as part of wider defence questions.

Quoted

“Britain entered negotiations over the future of the islands in 2022 after a UN vote supported by Russia, China, Syria, Belarus, North Korea and Venezuela awarded the islands to Mauritius in 2019. Philippe Sands KC, a human rights lawyer and close friend of Prime Minister Kier Starmer, represented Mauritius during its campaign to secure sovereignty of the archipelago.”

The Times of London, 8 January 2025

In short, the government remains reluctant to give any details about the deal, deferring to a holding statement: “Members will have the chance to scrutinise the detail of any treaty once it comes before the House.” That seems unlikely to hold, given someone is leaking much of the ongoing negotiation to journalists at both Bloomberg and The Financial Times, who in turn reported mid-week that Britain could pay the first tranche upfront or condense the annual payments so more is paid earlier.

This comes at the same moment that the 10-year gilt yield jumped to its highest since October 2008 and the pound to its lowest since 2023. In short, increasing the cost for the Government to borrow money, and making international transactions that bit more expensive. Compounding concerns around the financially peculiar element of the Chagos handover, economists estimate Chancellor Rachel Reeves no longer has the £10bn fiscal headroom she set out in her first Budget just three months ago.

Noted

Britain has now provided Ukraine with more than 400 different types of military capabilities.

The second involves Labour’s anti-corruption Minister Tulip Siddiq, the niece of former Bangladeshi leader and autocrat Sheikh Hasina, who is part of an investigation by the new administration into claims her family embezzled up to £3.9bn from infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. Compounding her problems - and the stickiness of the issue for the Government, which has backed her to date - the Financial and Sunday Times published investigative pieces which revealed a string of properties associated with Siddiq or her wider family and the previously governing Awami League party. Siddiq has now referred herself to the Parliamentary body in charge of ethics checks, but scrutiny will remain, with papers such as The Times calling for her to resign from her position.

Ahead of any Western media or analysts, I spotted that fellow Labour MP Rupa Huq spent the beginning of the week in Bangladesh. She met interim leader Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus (it’s not entirely clear in what capacity the visit took place) and discussed timelines for the next election. Clearly this trip was cleared on some level, as she was joined by James Goldman, deputy high commissioner and development director of the British High Commission in Dhaka.

Quoted

“Parallels between Syria and Bangladesh abound”

Labour MP Rupa Huq tweets about the similarities between fellow Labour MP Tulip Siddiq’s aunt, Sheik Hasina, and the downfall of Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad

Finally, a non-binding motion was passed late on Monday evening in Parliament calling on the Government to “acknowledge that there are approximately $300 billion of Russian assets frozen in the G7 and EU [and to] investigate ways that these frozen assets could be legally seized and used to fund the war effort in Ukraine.” Brought forward by Liberal Democrat, military veteran and fluent Pushtu speaker Mike Martin, precedent for seizing the £300bn - referring to Russian state assets, rather than privately held assets - may be half found in actions around the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, wherein Iraqi assets were seized and handed to Kuwait by Western allies.

Concerns around legal complexities, capital flight to China, and the precedent it may set were rebuffed in the Commons by former Deloitte and hedge fund employee Chris Coghlan. He argued “the risk that those assets will be seized should already have been substantially priced in, reducing the possibility of capital flight from a negative surprise…[and]…where would that capital fly to if the G7 countries act together? The pound, dollar, euro and yen amount to almost 90% of the world’s reserve currencies. China is not an option because of capital controls, so there are no other viable reserve currencies for countries to deposit their reserves in.”

Noted

The Government has rolled out a voluntary "no re-export to Russia" clause concept. Aimed at British businesses, it reflects a concern about circumvention of existing sanctions through complex supply chains and acts as an additional legal safeguard companies can add to their terms.

3. Cap in hand

For the better part of five centuries, Britain has attempted to extract financial return from its engagement with China. As the new year dawned, Chancellor Rachel Reeves became the latest official to jet to Beijing, with a clear remit: boost economic engagement. Reeves is set to meet China's Vice Premier He Lifeng among other figures. Her visit came before the conclusion of the UK’s ongoing China Audit, which Labour had pitched as being the key framework through which to pursue their China approach, and ahead of other planned trips from senior ministers such as Energy Secretary Ed Milliband. This rush has frustrated most observers in Westminster, who view it as premature and aimless. Yet it has delighted those in the City - notably, HSBC Chairman Mark Tucker will lead a business delegation visiting China this month, and Reeves was also joined by Andrew Bailey, leader of the Bank of England, and Nikhil Rathi, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority.

Quoted

“If we want our constituents to get away from food banks, we need to have more import-export and to be pragmatic on the matter of having an economic relationship with our fourth biggest trading partner.”

Catherine West, Minister for the Indo-Pacific, speaking about China in the Commons this week

The bleak economic midweek news saw further calls for the visit to be cancelled - not for human rights reasons, but for firefighting purposes. Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, said “The Chancellor should now cancel her travel and focus on this country instead.” Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, said: “Instead of jetting off to China, the Chancellor should urgently come before the House of Commons to cancel her counterproductive jobs tax and set out a real plan for growth.”And Richard Tice, the deputy Reform leader, added: “We are heading towards, be under no illusion, a financial crisis. Will you ask the Chancellor to return from her ridiculous trip to China and reverse course?”

Noted

Rachel Reeves previously worked in the British Embassy in Washington, monitoring the US economy.

Back in London, two major Chinese/Singaporean/Irish(?) companies appeared before the influential Business and Trade Committee. Shein and Temu - e-commerce giants - gave evidence as part of the Committee’s inquiry into workers’ conditions. The former performed extremely poorly. As I told Politico: “I suspect many of those involved in Shein’s potential London Stock Exchange listing will have watched that session through their fingers. That was, by most measures, a disaster…I would not want to be in Shein HQ for that debrief.” See for yourself below.

The diplomatic ramifications of their appearances are interesting too - both the previous and current British governments have met on multiple occasions with Shein’s representatives, keen to get the giant to list on the London Stock Exchange. The political sentiment around Parliament among those MPs who are following the topic (not a huge number by any means) is negative, and the listing will become a lightning rod for wider discontent in the bilateral.

UN SECURITY COUNCIL

• The UK's UN Deputy Ambassador, James Kariuki, delivered a stark warning on Sudan's humanitarian crisis, citing an IPC report confirming rapidly spreading famine. He called for urgent action, criticising Sudanese authorities for halting participation in the IPC system and urging full cooperation with aid efforts. Kariuki announced the UK's doubled aid commitment to £140m and pressed for expanded humanitarian access, including through South Sudan. Condemning the killing of WFP staff, he concluded by urging the UN Security Council and the international community to end the conflict and forge a path to lasting peace in Sudan.

DEFENCE

• John Healey, Defence Secretary, met his US counterpart Lloyd Austin ahead of a Ukraine conference.

• Throughout January and February 2025, NATO will conduct Exercise Steadfast Dart 25 to practice the deployment of the new Allied Reaction Force, which can rapidly reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. The exercises will see the UK Armed Forces join thousands of personnel from ten NATO Allies, operating across Romania and Bulgaria coinciding with the anniversary of Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These important exercises will showcase the Alliance’s readiness, capability, and commitment to defend every inch of NATO territory.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Lord Collins, Minister for Africa, visited Ghana to attend the inauguration of President-elect John Mahama.

• Baroness Chapman, Minister for Latin America and the Caribbean, visited Chile.

• The UK Foreign Office condemned North Korea's ballistic missile launch on 6 January 2025 as a breach of UN resolutions, destabilising regional security. An FCDO spokesperson urged the DPRK to cease provocations, resume dialogue and take credible steps towards denuclearisation, emphasising the need for peace on the Korean Peninsula

• Om Birla, India’s Lok Sabha Speaker, was in London. He told an audience he “had a good dialogue with leading U.K. parliamentarians and they displayed a strong belief in India’s democratic values and growth story…The scale of our country’s progress is outpacing many other nations and in the coming years, India will make its mark as the topmost country to attract investments. The coming decades of the 21st century belong to India.”

• Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee launched an inquiry into soft power. It seeks to ask “whether the UK’s approach to soft power complements the Government’s wider foreign policy objectives.” Chair Emily Thornberry seems to have made her mind up already, stating “The UK is a world leader when it comes to soft power, punching well above our weight. The UK is largely seen as a force for good, and a fair and balanced voice on the world stage. Many of our artistic and cultural institutions are well-loved and widely recognised. The British values of liberalism, tolerance and respect for the rule of law are emulated across the world.”

SANCTIONS AND CRIME

• The Government added 1 new designation under the Counter-Terrorism sanctions regime and made 2 administrative amendments under the Russia sanctions regime

TRADE

• The British High Commission in Accra hosted its third annual UK-Ghana Diaspora Networking Mixer. The event, attended by 600 guests including MP Bell Ribeiro-Addy, emphasised the potential for increased UK-Ghana trade, which stood at £1.4 billion in 2024. British High Commissioner Harriet Thompson highlighted the diaspora's role in driving mutual prosperity, with the event featuring Ghanaian cuisine, music, and displays from innovative diaspora-led companies.

MIGRATION

• Per its lates press release, since Labour came to office, enforced returns of people with no right to be in the UK are up 24% compared to the same 12 months prior “and Britain’s streets have been made safer with the removal of 2,580 foreign criminals – a 23% increase on last year. “ 

AI AND EMERGING TECH

• The British High Commission in Kuala Lumpur launched the UK-Malaysia STEM Education Showcase, aimed at promoting STEM subjects among Malaysian schoolchildren. The initiative includes training 122 Malaysian Youth STEM Ambassadors, deploying an interactive STEM mobile lab to eight primary schools, and hosting a high-level policy roundtable.

Noted

The term “statecraft” has been used in Parliament more in the last five years than the proceeding 30 combined.

ECONOMY AND AID

• The British High Commission in Port Vila has given GDP£400,000 (US$496,880) to UNICEF Pacific, to support children affected by the Vanuatu earthquake.

• The International Development Committee published a letter from Chancellor Rachel Reeves on overseas development aid, discussing when the UK is going to return to the 0.7% target. Chair Sarah Champion asked: “If spending 0.7% of GNI is out of reach, why settle on 0.5%? Is this an arbitrary number, or one that is critical to the Government’s strategy for overseas aid?”

DIPLOMATS

• Marianne Young, High Commissioner to Tanzania, met Foreign Minister Mahmoud Kombo and Minerals Minister Anthony Mavunde.

• Neil Crompton, Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, met the Kingdom’s Deputy Minister for Political Affairs Saud Al-Sati. They discussed bilateral relations and various topics of common interest.

• Jane Marriott, High Commissioner to Pakistan, met Minister for Defence Khawaja Muhammad Asif. The pair discussed closer defence ties.

In the years before the General Election was called, then Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves created a concept called ‘Securonomics’. Borrowing heavily from Bidenomics and touches of European thinking, it proposed that economic stability at home was tied to foreign, trade and security policy abroad. Securonomics became a useful wonk-pleasing tool, a means of showing how Labour would treat nationally important parts of Britain’s economy in a better way than successive Conservative governments had. Prior to the election, the UK’s steel sector, waning for years, was identified by Labour as a critical sector in need of government support and scrutiny.

Quoted

“In our age of insecurity, we have discovered the weaknesses of our old economic model. Too unambitious about the role an active state can play, too willing to believe that wealth will trickle down and too reliant on the contribution of a few places, a few industries and a few people. From the ashes of the old hyper-globalisation, securonomics emerges. Building the industries that guarantee Britain’s economic security. Forging resilience at home, while creating new partnerships abroad. And bringing together an active state in partnership with a vibrant market.”

Rachel Reeves, Shadow Chancellor, speech in Washington May 2023

It has also served as one of the first tests for translating the theory of securonomics into reality. The future of Britain’s steel industry touches on all parts of Reeves’ securonomics vision: it links domestic security (the steel industry supports tens of thousands of British jobs in many constituencies), foreign policy (steel features in diplomatic engagements frequently), trade (China, France and India all have steel strategies which impact the UK) and industrial policy (other nations benefit from low energy prices to produce their steel, whereas the UK does not).

The current state of play is not great: the UK steel industry produces roughly 5.6 million tonnes of crude steel annually, meeting about 70% of the UK's annual requirement of 8.9 million tonnes. Very little of that goes to defence: only 4% currently goes towards building new ships, and worse, some specialised steel grades required for defence projects aren't currently available from British producers. The two main companies that dominate the UK’s entire steel sector are British Steel (Chinese-owned by Jingye), and Tata Steel UK (Indian-owned) - neither are critical suppliers of the Ministry of Defence, and both have been bailed out previously to the tune of hundreds of millions of pounds by the British government.

To counter this, on Tuesday Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds launched the UK Steel Council. With buy-in from the UK’s established steel companies, this group is tasked with informing Labour’s Steel Strategy ahead of its release in Q1 2025 and providing the Government with insights on the sector on an ad-hoc basis. Two days later the Government announced that a United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) working group had successfully demonstrated the industrial-scale production of fusion-grade steel. Time will tell if this is enough.