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Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker

Hello,

In 1960, Prime Minister Harold MacMillan embarked on a six-week journey across Africa. The world around the Prime Minister, and Britain, was changing. Independence was sweeping the African continent, Cold War angst and proxy manoeuvring intensifying among its new leaders, and confidence in British strategy was at a low following a severe battering during the Suez Crisis some four years earlier. The Conservative leader visited Ghana, Nigeria, the Central African Federation (modern-day Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi), and South Africa. MacMillan’s tour culminated in his historic "Winds of Change" speech to South Africa’s parliament, which would redefine Britain’s approach to African independence.

Half a century later, Britain again finds itself thinking about its strategy towards Africa during a time of tectonic change. The continent is one of complexity, containing the majority of the world’s active war zones, two economies set to be in the global top 15 by 2050, a quarter of tomorrow’s population, and at least six different types of governance to contend with. Western geopolitical engagement has changed rapidly. In 2000, France was the top trading partner for 15 African countries, the US for six, the UK for five, and China for two. By 2020? China was the top trading partner for 29 African countries, the UAE for six, and France for three. The US and UK, once actively engaged through trade and geopolitical necessity during the Cold War, are no longer a top trading partner for a single African country.

For the last six months, the government has been thinking about what it needs to create a successful ‘Africa Strategy’. Executed poorly, it will mark the latest in a long line of promised but hardly delivered ‘resets’ to relations with the continent’s various governments. Talk from diplomats is that the approach will be based on “mutual respect and partnership”, covering growth, climate and security among other areas. But in the meantime, engagement carries on. Indeed, as I analyse in this Africa-heavy Telegram, in the last fortnight alone British politicians have been in the north, south, east and west, focussing on aid, AI, diplomacy and commerce.

Still lacking? A Prime Ministerial visit. No one’s realistically asking for a six-week tour. But it’s revealing that Keir Starmer has yet to make the journey.

One final note: please do forward these emails around your department, firm or unit. It helps!

— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)

1. Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, spoke to President Donald Trump. The two world leaders discussed economic and security matters, particularly in relation to the Middle East.

2. Keir Starmer and David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, issued long statements on Holocaust Memorial Day, the latter in collaboration at a reception co-hosted with the Israeli Embassy held at the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

3. David Lammy returned from a brief visit to Adré, on the border between Chad and Sudan, and announced £20 million in additional funding. His trip aimed to refocus international attention on the situation in Sudan and find new ways to halt the violence. It also represents the Government trying to get upstream of illegal immigration entering Britain, hence the press release noting “nearly 2,000 Sudanese nationals arrived on small boats in the year ending September 2024.”

4. David Lammy spoke to his new US counterpart, Marco Rubio. Both nations issued a call readout: Washington’s differed from London’s by mentioning both the “malign influence” of China and AUKUS. Analysis I’ve undertaken from open source information reveals they also discussed the DRC, Sudan, and Chagos. The Foreign Secretary also travelled to Tunisia to announce new funding to tackle irregular immigration.

5. Peter Kyle, the Science and Technology Secretary, concluded a visit to Brussels. He met European Commissioners and announced a renewed push for UK-EU science collaboration, including a national campaign to boost participation in Horizon Europe and membership in four European research consortia. The trip aimed to strengthen joint efforts on global challenges like climate change and AI development, while advancing the UK’s AI Opportunities Action Plan to position Britain as a leader in transformative technologies.

6. Kerry McCarthy, a Climate Minister, was also in Brussels. She met with a series of international partners including Belgian Energy Minister, Tinne van der Straeten and the European Union’s Principal Adviser on Energy Diplomacy, Tibor Stelaczky. Stephen Doughty, Europe Minister, was in Montenegro “to strengthen European security & economic growth through vital partnerships in the Western Balkans.”

7. Britain joined other United Nations Security Council members in urging Rwanda to stop supporting M23 rebels pushing into the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo. An emergency meeting on Sunday evening saw calls for peace talks to resume, while M23 captured large parts of Goma, a key city on the DRC’s eastern border.

8. Catherine West, the Minister for the Indo-Pacific, visited Sri Lanka for the first time in her role. She met the country’s Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya and discussed strengthening bilateral ties, but a meeting with the President fell through.

9. Douglas Alexander, the Economic Security Minister, visited Botswana and South Africa. Lord Collins, the Minister for Africa, announced new funding for clean energy projects on the continent.

10. Britain joined Australia, Canada, the EU, and New Zealand to release a joint statement following Belarus’ sham presidential elections. The UK sanctioned nine individuals and defence sector entities in Belarus in coordination with Canada.

11. Britain signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the state of Colorado. It covers cooperation on notable areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum, among other sectors.

Noted

A London court this week gave the green light to the extradition of two British men wanted by Japanese authorities in connection with a 2015 jewellery robbery in Tokyo. It marks the first time Japan will receive fugitives from a country with which Tokyo has not signed such an extradition treaty.

1. On the Foreign Secretary’s radar

Foreign Secretary David Lammy had an active week. Returning from the border between Sudan and Chad, he delivered a statement to the House of Commons updating politicians on what he witnessed (video above from his Twitter). The House was supportive of the Government’s approach.

Noted

David Lammy’s visit to Chad marked the first time a British Foreign Secretary has ever visited the country - Britain only opened a diplomatic office in N'Djamena in 2018.

China opened an embassy in Chad in 2007, and has sent multiple senior delegations and officials to the country since. Wang Yi, Lammy’s rough equivalent, was also in the country earlier this month.

Quoted

“The international community must wake up and act urgently to avoid this horrific death toll escalating further in the coming months, driving instability and irregular migration into Europe and the UK. Under this government’s Plan for Change, we are addressing upstream drivers of migration to secure UK borders. The UK will not let Sudan be forgotten. To do so would be unforgiveable [sic].”

Foreign Secretary David Lammy, press release

Whilst Lammy made the progressive case for sending a new £20 million aid package, an accompanying press release also noted that “nearly 2,000 Sudanese nationals arrived on small boats in the year ending September 2024.” Speaking in Parliament, he added that “irregular migration from Sudan to Britain alone increased by 16% last year.” The implication is simple: Britain wants to work upstream as much as possible to limit illegal immigration, and seems to be utilising aid as a way of engaging with countries directly to further this aim. This was the sole purpose for Lammy’s visit to Tunisia, which takes place as this Telegram goes live. The Foreign Secretary will be announcing “a new package of up to £5 million to boost UK funded programmes in the region to upskill migrants in-country, making it less likely that they will make dangerous small boats journeys to Europe, including to the UK, and undermine the country’s border security.” Back in London, the Government introduced the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill.

Noted

As reported in a previous Telegram, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper’s visit to Iraq in late November was to sign an agreement targeting people-smuggling gangs. Alongside this deal? Money for the Iraqi government. A similar but smaller British-funded arrangement is currently taking place between Algeria, Libya and Tunisia.

Lammy also spoke to his new US counterpart, Marco Rubio. As with any bilateral discussion, comparing readouts produces evidence of what each country wants to emphasise. For example, London’s readout noted Lammy’s “family ties to Guyana and Secretary Rubio’s family links to Cuba,” and “the challenges posed by China.” Washington skipped the personal touch, instead focusing immediately on foreign policy priorities, which include “addressing issues like the conflict in the Middle East, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and China’s malign influence.” It also mentioned AUKUS, which - like the word malign - had been left off the British readout. Simply pointing these details out was enough to make one of my tweets pick up 40,000 views. A leak to The Telegraph added that Rubio had discussed Chagos - left off both readouts - asking for reassurance that the agreement would not undermine US security interests. Not in the readouts because of the brevity with which it was mentioned was Sudan and the DRC.

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2. Escalation and leverage

On Sunday evening, the United Nations Security Council convened an emergency session. It followed credible reports and emerging evidence that a Tutsi-led rebel group, M23, had taken a key city on the Democratic Republic of Congo’s eastern border. Goma is the provincial capital of the Congolese state of North Kivu, and sits in a mineral reach seam. Adding complexity to the concern were allegations that Rwanda’s Defence Forces were aiding the M23 in their assault. Rwanda claims that the DRC is supporting the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, a Hutu militia linked to the 1994 genocide.

FCDO advice on travelling to the DRC

In response to the escalating violence, Britain called for an end to attacks on peacekeepers by M23 receiving support from Rwanda at the UNSC, and the Foreign Office produced various updates throughout the week, warning British nationals to leave the region. Foreign Secretary David Lammy spoke to Rwanda’s leader Paul Kagame on the phone, tweeting "I spoke to Paul Kagame and called for de-escalation, outlining the need for Rwanda and DRC to urgently return to the negotiating table.” In comments to Parliament, Lammy was more explicit: “We know that M23 rebels could not have taken Goma without material support from Rwandan defence forces.” Interestingly, Lammy also said Rubio had been the one to raise the ongoing DRC conflict during their call. Kagame did not tweet about his call with the Foreign Secretary.

Quoted

“Had a productive conversation with Secretary Rubio on the need to ensure a ceasefire in Eastern DRC and address the root causes of the conflict once and for all, and on the importance of deepening our bilateral ties based upon respect for our respective national interests. I look forward to working with the Trump Administration to create the prosperity and security that the people of our region deserve.”

President Paul Kagame, who did tweet about his call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio

Few African leaders are as canny at manipulating larger countries to fulfil their own agenda as Paul Kagame. Over the last five years, Rwanda’s leader has extracted hundreds of millions of pounds worth of agreements and aid programmes from Britain, in return for offering collaboration on hot-topic issues in Westminster, most notably illegal immigration. It’s not clear from the public statements if Britain is considering taking these financial commitments off the table in response to this latest conflict.

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3. Action in Africa

It was a notable week for British engagement across Africa beyond aid and conflict mediation. At the southern tip of the continent, Trade Policy Minister Douglas Alexander spent time in South Africa and Botswana. He co-chaired the first SACUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Trade Minister Ntsima of Botswana. Formed of Britain and the Southern African Customs Union (Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa) plus Mozambique, this saw technical signings and reaffirmed commitments to deepen economic ties. Said Douglas: “The Government is taking a fresh approach to Africa, one which prioritises genuine partnerships, mutual benefit, and sustainable development.”

Noted

Douglas Alexander and Botswana’s Vice President Ndaba Nkosinathi Gaolathe both studied at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia.

Alexander met several peers, including Ndaba Nkosinathi Gaolathe, Vice President of Botswana, Tiroyane Ntsima, Minister of Trade and Entrepreneurship, South Africa’s Trade Minister Parks Tau, South Africa’s Agriculture Minister, John Steenhuisen, Manqoba Khumalo, Eswatini’s Minister of Commerce, Industry & Trade, and Mokhethi Shelile, Lesotho’s Minister of Trade, Industry and Small Business. Pressed by South African media, Alexander dangled access to the British market, and pushed for reciprocal access for British farmers with Britain’s largest trading partner on the continent.

Quoted

“Our strategy won’t be driven by post-imperial delusions or political dogma. Our trade strategy will be based on data, not delusion. I’m more interested in getting good deals that help UK growth than getting my picture on Instagram.”

Trade Minister Douglas Alexander speaking to The Financial Times, August 2024

In Nairobi, Britain and Kenya co-hosted a series of events focusing on artificial intelligence, particularly developing it safely. It followed a sustained effort between both countries to promote the ethical development and deployment of AI technologies, which includes significant agreements signed in the last couple of years. Kenya typically applies its AI to agriculture currently.

Noted

A world-first report on the state of advanced AI capabilities and risks was published this week– written by 100 AI experts including representatives nominated by 33 countries and intergovernmental organisations.

Finally, the Africa Energy Summit took place in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Attending, UK Climate Representative Rachel Kyte hailed Anglo-African collaboration on energy matters, while Africa Minister Lord Collins announced funding totalling nearly £15 million for new clean energy projects. Britain also confirmed its support for Mission 300, an unprecedented collaboration between the African Development Bank Group, the World Bank Group and global partners which aims to expand electricity access to 300 million people in Africa by 2030.

UN SECURITY COUNCIL

• Ambassador James Kariuki, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, delivered a statement at the UN Security Council meeting on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and a speech on Israel and UNRWA.

DEFENCE

• John Healey, Defence Secretary, addressed the ADS Annual Dinner. He discussed the Defence Industrial Strategy featuring the creation of a National Armaments Director role to overhaul procurement and a major eight-year Rolls-Royce contract boosting UK jobs, alongside reforms to integrate industry earlier in defence planning. The strategy aims to accelerate innovation "at wartime pace," backed by £3bn in new defence spending, enhanced Ukraine support via drone/artillery production, and measures to counter campus harassment of defence firms.

• Maria Eagle, a Defence Minister, opened a new submarine facility in Bristol.

• Julia Longbottom, Ambassador to Japan, visited British troops training in the country.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, spoke to South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation following the murder of its peacekeepers in the DRC.

• Baroness Chapman, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Latin America and Caribbean, gave a speech at the RUSI Latin American Security Conference 2025.

• The Foreign Ministers of the UK, France and Germany delivered a statement on the implementation of legislation against United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East.

SANCTIONS

• Britain sanctioned nine individuals and defence sector entities in Belarus in coordination with Canada. They targeted leaders of institutions responsible for serious human rights violations and companies in the Belarusian defence sector supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine.

SOFT POWER

• Iraq’s Ministry of Interior is set to purchase over 60 British-made fire engines.

• Britain announced the launch of the Foundation Project, supporting four think tanks in Bangladesh. J.P. Morgan acted as both the Sole Mandated Lead Arranger and agent bank for the loan.

TRADE

• Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, is set to visit India to resume discussions around a Free Trade Agreement.

• The Business and Trade Committee visited Brussels for meetings with industry, MEPs and other “key European stakeholders.”

AI AND EMERGING TECH

• Peter Kyle, the Science and Technology Secretary, concluded a visit to Brussels. He met European Commissioners and announced a renewed push for UK-EU science collaboration, including a national campaign to boost participation in Horizon Europe and membership in four European research consortia. The trip aimed to strengthen joint efforts on global challenges like climate change and AI development, while advancing the UK’s AI Opportunities Action Plan to position Britain as a leader in transformative technologies.

ECONOMY AND AID

• Anneliese Dodds, the Minister for Development, announced £17 million in aid for Gaza

• Nigeria’s Bank of Industry (BOI) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with FSD Africa, a UK-backed financial sector development organisation, to strengthen Nigeria’s economic growth through enhanced access to finance.

• Kerry McCarthy, a Climate Minister, was in Brussels. She met with a series of international partners including Belgian Energy Minister, Tinne van der Straeten and the European Union’s Principal Adviser on Energy Diplomacy, Tibor Stelaczky.

IMMIGRATION AND DIASPORA

• A delegation from the British High Commission in Bangladesh met the commission of inquiry on enforced disappearance at the commission's office in Gulshan in the capital.

DIPLOMATS

• Matthew Lawson, Ambassador to North Macedonia, met Prime Minister Христијан Мицкоски to discuss cyber security issues.

Catherine West, Minister for the Indo-Pacific, was in Sri Lanka this week. She met Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya and other key government ministers, including Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath. The visit was the first meeting of the two new governments. Per the Sri Lankan readout, West’s meeting with the Prime Minister involved discussions on “key government priorities, including poverty eradication, regional development, and economic equity.”

Noted

Sri Lanka is set to be cleared of all land mines left over from the conflict by 2030. Britain has played a leading role in the clearance process.

Recent engagement between the two nations has focused on climate action, such as Britain’s support for Sri Lanka’s 2050 net-zero goals, maritime security in the Indo-Pacific, and post-conflict reconciliation. This time around West launched new export procedure handbooks, helping Sri Lankan businesses better access the UK market through the Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS).