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Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker
Hello,
It has not been a good week for the so-called Liberal International Order™. Under President Donald Trump, the United States has begun its withdrawal from the UN Human Rights Council, sanctioned the International Criminal Court (ICC), flouted diplomatic norms by threatening punitive tariffs on Canada and Mexico, ignited the early stages of a trade war with China, and gutted USAID funding in a manner that will invite legal challenges for years to come.
The purpose of these notes is not to scrutinise every manoeuvre from the White House—that task is best left to others, where analysis often ranges from the breathless to the hyperpartisan. What is worth noting, however, is Britain's unenviable position: it remains, as ever, downstream of Washington’s decisions. Structural realities—size, economic weight, population—play their part, but decades of strategic deference have only deepened this dependency. For Westminster, the President giveth, and the President taketh away.
Let us consider, then, a moment from history. A century ago Britain found itself in economic turmoil. War debts had soared—national debt stood at £7.4 billion in 1919, up from £650 million in 1914—while growing competition from the United States and Japan further strained British industry. Britain owed approximately £978 million to Washington, making it highly sensitive to American financial policy. Meanwhile, Japan had doubled its textile exports by 1925, undercutting British producers in India and China, and contributing to a 25% decline in British textile exports between 1920 and 1925. British politics found itself sitting downstream of decisions made in capitals across the other side of the planet.
History does not repeat itself, but its rhythms are unmistakable. Britain’s economic and foreign policy fortunes have long been shaped by external forces. The question, then as now, is whether it can shape them in return.
Finally, a mea culpa. In last week’s Telegram, I mixed up Harold Wilson and Harold MacMillan in the introduction, naming and interchanging both of them. My own fault for listening to The Rest Is History’s excellent series on the
latterformer as I typed the introduction late at night. Thank you to those who got in touch to correct me.
One final note: please do forward these emails around your department, firm or unit. It helps!
— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)
Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, visited Brussels for a European Commission meeting. It marked the first time a Downing Street dweller had done so since Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016. Alongside meetings with his continental counterparts, the Prime Minister spoke to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
The Prime Minister spoke to the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, on the phone. They “welcomed an international conversation on the importance of trade and collaboration between allies and partners.”
He also met Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof in Downing Street. Among other topics, the pair discussed "moving at pace to seize on the opportunities offered by new and emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, quantum and semiconductors" and agreed to “pursue a new innovation partnership to accelerate growth in key technologies.”
British media reported Prime Minister Starmer would not attend the AI Safety Summit in France next week. AI safety is currently one of the areas Britain has a comparative advantage.
Donald Trump, the President of the United States, said he was considering imposing tariffs on Britain.
Navin Ramgoolam, Mauritian Prime Minister, told his country’s Parliament that he expected Britain to offer new terms as it hands over the Chagos Archipelago. His comments were picked up by British media. National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell flew to Washington to update his American counterpart, while Foreign Secretary David Lammy is expected to discuss the issue with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at next week’s Munich Security Conference.
Anneliese Dodds, Britain’s International Development Minister, set out a new approach to funding foreign aid. Speaking at the London Stock Exchange, she announced private sector funding would be included.
Peter Mandelson, the new British Ambassador to the United States, spoke to The Financial Times. Asked about his links to Jeffrey Epstein, he told the paper “I’m not going to go into this. It’s an FT obsession and frankly you can all fuck off. OK?” On the US-UK relationship, he highlighted technology as a priority area for collaboration, saying “It would be disastrous if we in the west lost the advanced technology race with China.”
1. The Europe Challenge
This week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer became the first British leader to attend a European Council meeting since Brexit. It formed part of Britain’s efforts to ‘reset’ relations with the bloc, following a messy exit over the better part of a decade, and an effort to stimulate economic growth.
Two tectonic shifts are guiding this renewed effort at engagement. The first is Ukraine. A land war on the continent for the first time in the 21st century has revealed varying levels of weakness among European countries on their defence, energy and industrial focus. This has reinvigorated talk of working together to tackle shared issues presented by Russia. The second is, frustratingly for Europeans, the United States. Donald Trump has long criticised NATO countries for not paying their fair share towards defence - a largely accurate point - and is pondering tariffs on the bloc as a punishment for the current trade deficit. Speaking to reporters this week, the President said “I can tell you that, because they’ve really taken advantage of us – you know, we have over $300 billion [£241.5 billion] deficit...they don’t take our cars, they don’t take our farm products. They take almost nothing, and we take everything, from the millions of cars, tremendous amounts of food and farm products.”
Quoted
“Should tariffs lead to a significant worsening of economic growth, the ECB and the BoE could switch towards a more supportive stance, likely later in 2026, by accelerating the pace of rate cuts. This could also lead to an initially higher path of global inflation, followed by a gradual return to target."
KPMG’s January 2025 UK Economic Outlook note
To that end, Starmer’s trip to Brussels yielded some noteworthy lines. The first was a hedge. Britain, he said, was "not choosing between the US and the EU" when it came to preferred partners: “We want to deliver an ambitious UK-EU security partnership to bolster NATO…We can't be commentators when it comes to matters of peace on our continent, we must lead.” Second, on defence, Starmer’s meeting with Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte saw the latter urge Britain to up its defence spend (not included in the Government readout). Starmer remains non-commital, simply saying a pathway to 2.5% GDP spend will be set out at some point in the near future, even as Trump calls upon NATO partners to commit to 5%. Third, the Prime Minister spoke to his Danish counterpart Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen. Their discussion had a strong High North focus - keep an eye on this going forward - and various other aspects of the defence relationship.
Noted
Following the trip to Europe, the British Government announced the first UK-EU Summit will be in the UK on 19 May.
Also in Brussels: Nick Thomas-Symonds, Minister for European Union Relations. He delivered a speech delivered at the EU-UK Forum, focusing on three key areas: security, safety, and prosperity. His speech also outlined the British Government's commitment to implementing existing agreements, reducing trade barriers, and fostering closer cooperation on issues such as research, innovation, and law enforcement.
Back in London, the second EU-UK Counter-Terrorism Dialogue took place. Officials “discussed a wide range of counter-terrorism issues, including assessments of the evolving terrorist threat landscape, and an exchange of best practice on the UK and EU response, in order to protect our citizens”, and, notably, “technology, including responses to terrorist content online and emerging technologies.”
Noted
Britain aims to sign agreements with Taiwan on digital trade, investment and renewable energy "in the near future," its departing envoy in Taipei said in an interview with local media.
2. Chagos chaos continues
On Wednesday, opposition leader Kemi Badenoch asked Prime Minister Keir Starmer to clarify what exactly was going on with the Chagos Archipelago, currently in the process of being handed to Mauritius alongside an unknown number of billions of pounds. “When Labour negotiates”, she charged, “our country loses. Yesterday, we heard that the Government offered £18 billion for Mauritius to take our territory in the Chagos islands. This is money that belongs to our children and their children. This is an immoral surrender, so that north London lawyers can boast at their dinner parties.”
Chagos is back on the radar primarily because Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam updated his National Assembly on the latest at the beginning of the week. Among the revelations were the fact that the lease terms may be changing, and that Britain may now be paying billions linked to inflation. The Prime Minister also noted Britain was now waiting for sign-off from Donald Trump. Ramgoolam later rowed back on some of his claims, but the British Government’s lack of transparency and real justification has caused outrage in Parliament and the British media, and concern in Washington.
Quoted
“ I will remind the Leader of the Opposition; maybe he is not aware because all this was done in secrecy. Even the officials, Madam Speaker, were not aware of what the agreement was. They went to London, but they were asked to leave the room. Only the former Prime Minister and the British Prime Minister spoke! This is why the deal is like what it is.”
Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam, Tuesday 4 February 2025
A further difficulty for successive Downing Streets has been its confused communications strategy. First, it cited national security concerns as a reason to not share details, leading to the comical interview with Sky News at the top of this section. Then, feeling the heat, a (clearly briefed) article appeared on Bloomberg late in the day, adding a new angle: Britain is concerned about the control of a satellite communications system used by London and Washington to run vital military operations. The concerns relate to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), a UN agency that regulates the use of electromagnetic frequencies. Asked why the UK could be stopped from using the system, the spokesman said: “Because of the legal judgments in relation to the base.”Next up, a Downing Street spokesperson addition: “The electromagnetic spectrum at the Diego Garcia base would not be able to continue to operate without a deal. This system enables secure communications in the region. It's something that the UK and the US have currently got unique access to, and it is the case that without legal certainty over the base (it) is something we would lose access to.” The Telegraph then revealed this line of reasoning was made by Philippe Sands, an international lawyer and long-time friend of Starmer, who “represented Mauritius in a case against the UK.”
The legalise is the sticking point in Westminster and beyond. Government sources point to a 2019 International Court of Justice advisory ruling that the separation of the Chagos Archipelago from Mauritius in 1965 (before the latter getting its independence) was unlawful under international law and that the United Kingdom should withdraw its administration so the islands can be reunited with Mauritius.
Quoted
“This Chagos bullshit came to my desk in No10. It's all total shit from a few government lawyers. MI6 knows it. GCHQ knows it. MoD knows it. Everyone knows this is just the far left international law Grieve wankers. I told them -- 'no negotiations, we don't care what any lawyers or international tribunals say about Chagos and neither does Washington, no process, no meeting with the PM, bin it all and don't bring it back'. The issue vanished. The deep state was HAPPY. Then the lawyers had another crack at the useless Trolley in 2021 who told the useless NPC minister 'Chagos' Cleverley to start a 'process' just cos of lawyer whining. Cleverley handled it with his usual skill: total car crash fiasco. All this 'classified satellites' briefing is ludicrous spin and the whole deep state knows it.”
Dominic Cummings, former key adviser in Downing Street. ‘Trolley’ is former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and Cleverly is James Cleverly, former Foreign Secretary.
However, the geopolitical reality of the day is different. The United States is not signed up to the ICJ, and it seems unlikely that the Trump administration will have any sympathy for British reasoning if this is the key factor. Britain is not compelled to follow this ICJ advisory.
Noted
What do Australia, Italy, the United States, Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Britain have in common?
All of them are in various stages of ignoring UN or ICJ advisories on issues ranging from offshore detention to nuclear weapons.
3. A new approach to development aid
Anneliese Dodds, the Minister for Development, delivered a keynote speech at the London Stock Exchange this week. The reason for location was driven by the content of the pitch: a vision for the British Government partnering with the financial sector to drive global growth and tackle development challenges. Dodds highlighted four key areas of focus: mobilising private capital, reforming international financial institutions, addressing unsustainable debt, and scaling up insurance for disaster resilience.
Noted
The first foreign government loan was floated in London in 1706 on behalf of the Emperor of Germany for ₤500,000, secured on the revenues of Silesia and bearing interest at 8 per cent. Between 1822 and 1825, Brazil and Peru each raised three loans; Mexico and Columbia, two; and Chile, the Argentine and Guatemala, one.
Two significant shifts are guiding this renewed effort at global engagement. The first is the recognition of interconnected global challenges, from conflicts to climate change, which require collaborative solutions. The second is the untapped potential of emerging markets, particularly in Africa, which present substantial investment opportunities for UK financial institutions. Dodds emphasised the importance of harnessing the City of London's expertise, stating: "Clearly, the City of London and wider UK financial sector must be at the heart of how we meet the opportunities and challenges of our time." The UK's efforts to increase the World Bank's risk appetite, potentially unlocking an additional $30 billion over ten years, is reminiscent of the Marshall Plan's philosophy, albeit on a global scale, recognising that economic development abroad can yield significant domestic benefits.
The Minister announced several key initiatives:
Up to £100 million in additional funding for MOBILIST, the UK's flagship public markets programme.
A new Investor Taskforce to increase UK private investment for climate and development in global markets.
A $50 million deal with Standard Chartered Bank to expand infrastructure investments in developing countries.
Support for the first ten transactions implementing 'majority voting provisions' in lending to low-or-middle-income countries.
Quoted
"Together, we can maximise the impact of billions of dollars of public money – and unlock many billions more."
Anneliese Dodds, Minister for Development
The speech also highlighted recent successes, such as the issuance of the first $500 million Climate Investment Funds Capital Markets Mechanism bond on the London Stock Exchange, which was oversubscribed six times over. Climate Minister Kerry McCarthy praised the bond issuance, stating: "This is a historic moment for tackling the climate crisis, with the first bond raising $500 million to accelerate the global clean energy transition and support the flow of climate finance to developing countries."
Noted
The British Government is calling on all creditors, including private sector lenders in the City, to offer Climate Resilient Debt Clauses in their sovereign lending by the end of the year.
UN SECURITY COUNCIL
Ambassador James Kariuki, UK Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, delivered a statement at the UN Security Council meeting on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and a speech on Israel and UNRWA.
Noted
Jack Lopresti, a former Conservative MP and Conservative deputy chair, has joined the Ukrainian army. He is now based in Kyiv helping with weapons procurement.
DEFENCE
Luke Pollard, a Defence Minister, met his counterpart from Montenegro, Minister Krapović, to sign a new “agreement deepening our important defence relationship.”
Jonny Hall, Director of Cyber Policy at the Foreign Office, gave a speech on countering disinformation at the Japan-NATO Strategic Communications Conference held in Tokyo.
UK Deputy Chief of Defense Staff Air Marshal Harvey Smyth held talks with Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh on ways to enhance military cooperation between the two countries. Discussions focused on "ways to enhance military cooperation between Libya and the United Kingdom, support and build Libyan military capabilities, and cooperation in training and development areas."
Quoted
“Google is overhauling the principles governing how it uses artificial intelligence and other advanced technology. The company removed language promising not to pursue “technologies that cause or are likely to cause overall harm,” “weapons or other technologies whose principal purpose or implementation is to cause or directly facilitate injury to people,” “technologies that gather or use information for surveillance violating internationally accepted norms,” and “technologies whose purpose contravenes widely accepted principles of international law and human rights.””
WIRED coverage of Google’s shifting AI policies
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, spoke to Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun. They discussed the ceasefire, security and humanitarian challenges. Lammy met Finnish Minister for Foreign Affairs Elina Valtonen in London.
Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍), Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, awarded the outgoing British representative to Taiwan John Dennis a medal in recognition of his efforts at promoting closer Taiwan-U.K. relations during his four-year tenure.
Hamish Faulkner, a Foreign Office Minister, spoke to Palestinian Authority Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr Varsen Aghabekian.
Stephen Doughty, a Foreign Office Minister, met his Czech counterpart Jan Marian.
Gareth Ward, Ambassador to Georgia, met Maka Botchorishvili, the Georgian Foreign Minister. The two discussed the “current developments”, with Botchorishvili emphasising the “UK’s recent actions taken towards Georgia”, which, considering “the traditionally friendly ties”, “unfortunately do not contribute to the positive agenda of the existing relations”. Britain recently sanctioned several individuals.
SANCTIONS
Britain expelled a Russian diplomat.
SOFT POWER
King Charles spoke to Kenya’s President William Samoei Ruto. The latter tweeted: “we discussed Kenya’s long-standing and close ties with the United Kingdom. I am glad that Kenya and the United Kingdom have a shared passion for nature and climate conservation.”
King Charles hosted The King of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in Buckingham Palace.
Prince Edward, the Duke of Edinburgh, visited India. His trip focused on championing young people and promoting non-formal education globally.
Both The Royal Highnesses Duke and Duchess of Edinburgh visited Nepal. They were met by Foreign Secretary Amrit Bahadur Rai, and the pair held a meeting with President Ram Chandra Poudel.
Noted
Britain is home to the second-largest quantum sector globally, strongly supported by investment from the public and private sectors. There are at least 160 companies working on this cutting edge technology across the country.
TRADE
The British High Commission in Colombo, the International Trade Centre (ITC), and the Sri Lanka Export Development Board (EDB) SheTrades Sri Lanka Hub have launched two handbooks to provide Sri Lankan women-led businesses with essential knowledge to enter the UK market.
AI AND EMERGING TECH
The Deputy National Security Advisors of the UK and India met in London to evaluate progress under the UK-India Technology Security Initiative.
ECONOMY
The pound fell sharply after the Bank of England cut interest rates as expected, but forecast higher inflation and weaker growth, with two officials calling for an even larger rate cut.
The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), in collaboration with the British Standards Institution (BSI) and the Foreign Office, held a two-day standards partnership workshop on Green Hydrogen.
AID
Eleanor Sanders, the UK Human Rights Ambassador, visited Bangladesh.
Mark Bryson-Richardson, the Foreign Secretary’s Representative for Humanitarian Affairs in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, met Minister of State for International Cooperation Maryam bint Ali bin Nasser Al Misnad.
IMMIGRATION AND DIASPORA
Karen Pierce, the outgoing British Ambassador to the United States, is rumoured to be assigned as UK Special Envoy to the West Balkans, with a focus on immigration.
DIPLOMATS
Angus Lapsley has been appointed UK Permanent Representative to NATO in succession to Sir David Quarrey.
Paul Turner, High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands, met Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele.
Michael Nithavrianakis, Ambassador to Somalia, met Somali Police Force Commander General Asad Osman Abdullahi Diyano. They discussed how the UK could provide additional support to further equip and train the Somali Police Force in combating threats posed by extremist groups.
Brian Jones, High Commissioner to Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu & Ambassador to the Republic of Marshall Islands & Federated States of Micronesia, discussed a range of national and regional issues with HE President Naiqama Lalabalavu of Fiji.
Britain and the Philippines have intensified their bilateral relations over the last couple of years, with a renewed focus on trade, defence, and maritime cooperation. The latest iteration of this took place in London this week, as both nations attended the second strategic dialogue, co-chaired by Philippine Undersecretary for Bilateral Relations Maria Theresa Lazaro and Catherine West, Minister for the Indo-Pacific. Launched in 2021, this series spans five areas of cooperation: political affairs, defence, maritime, economic and trade, and climate and environment.
Lazaro met several notable Whitehall figures, including Owen Jenkins, Director General for Indo-Pacific, Middle East and North Africa at the Foreign Office, and Nick Catsaras, UK Deputy National Security Adviser for International Affairs, “for discussions on regional security matters.”
Quoted
"There is no doubt that 2025 will bring opportunities. We want to engage with key areas such as renewable energy, infrastructure, technology, defence, and financial services. We cannot only contribute to the Philippines' development, but also create lasting economic opportunities for British businesses."
Laure Beaufils, British Ambassador to the Philippines
Key developments from the dialogue include:
New trade, defence, and maritime cooperation agreements are expected to be concluded in 2025.
A Joint Framework Agreement is to be signed in March 2025.
Discussions on ASEAN-UK cooperation ahead of the Philippines' ASEAN chairmanship in 2026.
Exploration of trade and investment opportunities with the new UK Trade Envoy to the Philippines, George Freeman.
Noted
Britain is now the Philippines’ largest source of foreign direct investment. Last year saw £585 million (PHP 44.13 billion) worth of investments in the Philippines - 4,230% higher than the previous year. This is largely thanks to projects in the renewable sector: for example, Actis, a London-based investment firm, committed $600 million to develop Terra Solar, aiming to be the largest integrated renewable energy and storage project globally.
One of substack's best accounts, great as always