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Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions. This is a project I run for fun. These are my personal opinions. The opinions expressed in here? Personal.

Hello,

At the turn of the 19th century, a new technology slowly began to make its presence felt on the European continent. The telegraph allowed information to be shared at a speed never before seen, with the potential to revolutionise society, warfare, and business. In France, one astute leader looked at this frontier technology and decided to throw the weight of the state behind it. From Paris, Napoleon Bonaparte ordered new lines to be built throughout the country and beyond, as far as Italy. “The secret of war lies in the communications,” Mr Bonaparte is said to have mused, as his telegraph empire expanded.

A little over two hundred years later, a conclave of world leaders and tech moguls, representing nearly a third of the world's population and AI companies with a staggering market capitalisation of £8 trillion, gathered in the streets of Paris. The aim? To chart a course through the uncharted waters of AI development. The Artificial Intelligence Safety Summit - which will be discussed further in this Telegram - saw 66 nations - including China, Australia, Japan, Brazil and South Korea - sign on to France’s joint declaration on the need for "open, inclusive, and ethical" artificial intelligence (AI).

Britain did not join the signatories, citing restrictive language and a lack of national security focus. In fact, Prime Minister Keir Starmer did not attend the Summit at all. Neither did his Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner. This decision invites scrutiny, particularly when viewed through the lens of historical precedent and strategic foresight.

Consider, for instance, the Congress of Vienna in 1814-15. This diplomatic tour de force reshaped post-Napoleonic Europe and established a balance of power that largely endured for a century. Britain's adroit participation, aided by Viscount Castlereagh, secured its interests and influence on the continent. If, as the Chair of the UK’s AI Safety Institute has previously argued, we are at the beginning of a new type of geopolitics - AI Nationalism - then one cannot help but wonder if Starmer's absence from the AI Summit represents a missed opportunity of similar magnitude.

By foregoing the Summit, Starmer not only missed the chance to engage discreetly with his global counterparts face-to-face on the sidelines, but also to glean invaluable insights into their perspectives on AI's potential and pitfalls. Are his peers worried? Are they ambitious? Do they have a nationalist strategy? How are they trying to attract frontier firms? How are they utilising AI to propel growth? What does Britain’s ten-year engagement plan look like with a foreign nation ripe for disruption, or potential societal pressures, brought on by AGI?

As any seasoned diplomat or corporate strategist would attest, presence - or lack thereof - at such gatherings is a signalling measure. Markets scrutinise declarations, corporations parse statements, and adversaries analyse meetings with meticulous care. Those tasked with shaping foreign policy must grapple with two fundamental questions: what message are we conveying through our actions, and what are the cascading consequences of our choices? In an era where technological prowess increasingly equates to geopolitical influence, Britain's path forward demands not just domestic focus but also robust international engagement. The lessons of history—from the Treaty of Westphalia to the formation of NATO—underscore the critical importance of being present at the table when the future is being shaped.

— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)

1. Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, did not attend the AI Safety Summit in Paris. Britain did not sign the ‘Statement on Inclusive and Sustainable Artificial Intelligence for People and the Planet.’ Nor did the Prime Minister attend the Munich Security Conference.

2. The Prime Minister hosted President Trump’s Special Envoy to the United Kingdom, Mark Burnett, at Downing Street, during which he took a call from President Trump and discussed his forthcoming visit to the US.

3. John Healey and David Lammy, the Defence and Foreign Secretaries respectively, looked set to meet their United States counterpart in Europe.

4. David Lammy hosted his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in London. Media reported the Prime Minister briefly attended a meeting between national security adviser Jonathan Powell and Wang Yi too.

5. Britain convened the 26th Ukraine Defence Contact Group in Brussels. It marked the first time a European nation had chaired the meeting.

6. Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, visited India. He signed numerous agreements focused on Net Zero and green technology.

7. Lord Coaker, a Defence Minister, visited New Delhi. Britain and India signed a new defence agreement, swapping market access for collaboration on new defence technology.

8. Luke Pollard, the Minister for the Armed Forces, led a trade delegation to Ukraine which included Norway and The Netherlands. They met with Ukrainian ministers, officials, and industry partners to strengthen strategic partnerships and enhance defence cooperation in support of Ukraine.

9. The Defence Select Committee visited Finland.

1. AI Safety gathering

Peter Kyle, Britain’s Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, (featured in the above video) and his junior minister Feryal Clark attended the AI Safety Summit, co-hosted by old strategic allies India and France. Early on in the gathering, the major communique was leaked to the Transformer, where it received a fair bit of negative criticism online. The overarching consensus among many AI safety experts seems to have been that the conference fell short of achieving meaningful safety agreements and that France utilised the gathering as a chance to pitch for AI investment.

Quoted

“The contrast between the summit’s proceedings and concurrent events is jarring. While French officials celebrated their domestic AI champions, DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis warned that AGI could arrive within five years. As officials promoted non-binding commitments to study AI’s environmental impact, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei predicted human-level AI by 2027 (“almost certainly no later than 2030”), and criticized the summit as a “missed opportunity,” warning that “greater focus and urgency is needed ... given the pace at which the technology is progressing.”

These aren’t idle speculations. They’re warnings from the people actually building these systems, who openly admit they haven’t solved the technical challenges of making them safe — or the social challenges of how society will adapt to this new technology. On Sunday, Hassabis said “there needs to be more time spent by economists ... and philosophers and social scientists on 'what do we want the world [with AGI] to be like’”. Yet conversations of that sort were entirely absent from the Paris Summit.”

Transformer

analysis of the gathering

Still, it is worth understanding what was said at the gathering. Key quotes and themes from major players included:

• J.D. Vance, U.S. Vice President: America First-type speech which warned that over-regulation risked reducing private sector competition among the leading AI companies: “The Trump administration will guarantee that the most potent AI systems are developed in the U.S. using American-designed and manufactured chips…Europe must choose between U.S. leadership or authoritarian rivals"

• Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister: focused on equitable AI governance and public-sector applications, pushing for India to be the major partner for the so-called Global South: "AI is writing the code for humanity in this century…democratise access to AI tools and build open-source systems."

• Emmanuel Macron, French President: pushed for France to become the world’s third AI superpower, and a lighter touch: "We need these rules for AI to progress [...] but we must simplify and resynchronize with the rest of the world"

• Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission President: ushed for EU interests, which are different from the US approach: "Europe’s approach prioritises innovation while ensuring AI is human-centric."

• Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO: played down safety concerns, called for market expansion: "Safety is integral, but the main concern is making AI cheaper and better."

• Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO with ongoing AI interests: railed against EU regulation and warned of a West v East split: "Europe needs to organize itself effectively. The application layer holds immense potential…Failure to back open-source tech will cede scientific discovery to China."

Britain joined the United States in refusing to sign the Summit’s declaration. On the first day of the Summit, word leaked that this would happen, with Kyle telling a Politico report: “We’re in the negotiations at the moment. That’s something we don’t comment on while the negotiations are unfolding. We’re engaging fully with the French.” By Tuesday it was dead in the water. A Government spokesperson told the papers the declaration “didn’t provide enough practical clarity on global governance, nor sufficiently address harder questions around national security”. Other theories with varying levels of credibility circulated, including that the UK joined the Americans as a means of getting in the good books ahead of potential steel tariffs.

Noted

Alexandr Wang, CEO of ScaleAI, travelled from the Summit to London. He met Starmer in Downing Street, tweeting of the meeting: “Free nations must lead in AI. Good conversation with Keir Starmer on global AI standards, economic prosperity, and how we can partner on the immense AI opportunities in the UK.” Under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the Government devoted an entire press release to Wang’s decision to open its European office in London.

All eyes now turn to India, which is due to host the next AI Safety Summit sometime between November 2025 and January 2026. Who knows what technological advances will be on the forefront by that time?

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2. British-India defence ties

Source

One of the bilateral relationships that receives the least amount of attention in Westminster relative to the intense amount of ongoing action is that between Britain and India. Approaches are multi-faceted, from market access and immigration to defence and quantum, and happening at a high level frequently.

The launch of the UK-India Defence Partnership–India (DP-I) this week presents one such example; a structural shift in bilateral defence relations, moving beyond transactional arms deals to co-development and supply chain integration. Anchored by a dedicated office within the Ministry of Defence, this initiative functions as a "single window" for accelerating joint projects – from advanced missile systems to naval propulsion technologies. One such example of this was the announced collaboration on next-generation weapons between Thales and Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL). Both companies signed a contract that will deliver Laser Beam Riding MANPADs (LBRM), which are advanced portable air defence missiles that soldiers can carry and use to shoot down enemy aircraft or drones, among other goodies.

In attendance from the UK side was Defence Minister Lord Coaker, joined by British firms Rolls Royce, BAE Systems, MBDA UK, Thales UK, GE Vernova, Leonardo, Strongfield Technologies, ASL, SEKO Logistics, Jaguar Engineering Centre of Excellence, Aviation Defence Supplies Ltd and Ricardo. The firms and British High Commissioner Lindy Cameron also gathered for a defence-focused UK-India Business Council roundtable.

The partnership tacitly addresses historical friction points: British concessions on technology transfer counterbalance India’s relaxation of foreign investment caps in defence ventures, tacitly noted in a Rolls Royce update. With 14 British defence majors now operating Indian production lines, DP-I signals London’s strategic bet on Delhi as a counterweight to Chinese defence industrial dominance in Asia.

Quoted

“India is taking significant steps in its journey to become Atmanirbhar in its defence capabilities. The UK is really looking forward to working with India as a partner of choice in supporting this ambition: collaborating on defence technologies lies at the heart of this. These are landmark agreements that support our economic growth and joint security.”

Lindy Cameron, British High Commissioner to India, via press release. ‘Atmanirbhar’ refers to the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (Self-Reliant India Campaign), which was launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in May 2020.

On the energy front, Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband met his Indian counterpart Shri Manohar Lal, Union Minister of Power, in New Delhi. The readout of the Fourth India-UK Energy Dialogue was replete with diplomatic niceties, but the substance of the agreements reveals a more complex picture of two nations grappling with the realities of energy transition in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

For India, this is an opportunity to leverage British expertise in offshore wind and grid modernisation as it races to meet its ambitious renewable energy targets. Britain, meanwhile, sees in India a vast market for its clean energy technologies - a market of over one billion potential customers to trial new concepts - and a potential ally in shaping global climate policy. The establishment of a UK-India Offshore Wind Taskforce, in particular, signals a move beyond mere technology transfer to joint industrial strategy - a model that could prove instrumental in accelerating India's green energy revolution while opening new avenues for British firms.

Noted

India is set to be the world’s fourth-largest importer by 2035.

Back in London, MPs from the influential Foreign Affairs Committee met with India’s High Commissioner Vikram Doraiswami. A tweet from the High Commission noted they discussed key priorities for India, India-UK relations, India’s foreign policy and opportunities available in various sectors like trade & investment, science & tech, green hydrogen, defence and education for deepening partnership between the two countries.

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3. Ukraine and Munich

The moment many in Westminster had long been expecting arrived this week, as the Trump Administration began to make good on its stated aim to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the terms on which this will happen remain unclear, the rhetoric has drawn criticism from many British politicians. American Vice-President J.D. Vance told those gathered at a major conference in Munich “The threat that I worry the most about vis a vis Europe is not Russia. It's not China, it's not any other external actor. And what I worry about is the threat from within." He also attacked the British Government for what he perceived to be attacks against freedom of speech, religion and liberty.

Diplomatically, Britain is trying to work with the wider European community to support Ukraine, through statements, speeches and action. At the 26th Ukraine Defence Contact Group over 50 allies and partners, including Ukraine, the US, Japan and Australia, came together for a session chaired by Defence Secretary John Healey. The Defence Secretary announced a new £150m military support package to support Ukrainian troops fighting Russia on the frontline, which forms part of the UK’s total commitment of £4.5 billion. Key practical deliverables included thousands of drones, dozens of battle tanks, armoured vehicles and air defence systems. Healey then went on to attend a NATO Defence Ministerial meeting.

These commitments were set against the backdrop of stories leaking about the UK’s own Strategic Defence Review, currently entering its concluding chapter. The Financial Times reported that one person close to the negotiations said: “The chiefs want a budget of 2.65 per cent of GDP but the Treasury is adamant that they should work to 2.3 per cent.” A second official confirmed the gap between the two sides, which amounts to about £10bn a year.

Noted

Parliament Library analysis

Healey then joined Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Development Minister Anneliese Dodds, and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle in Germany for the Munich Security Conference, which is underway. Politico reported that diaries and meetings were still looking fluid, but that Lammy would attend a G7 meetig and likely meet Vance (he did). Communications lines briefed to the papers seemed to suggest the Foreign Secretary was keen to urge his European counterparts to try and “keep calm”, and not to overreact to the rhetoric coming out of The White House.

Interestingly, Britain used the opportunity to announce a rebrand of its world-leading AI Safety Institute, which, as Kyle announced, would now be the AI Security Institute. Alongside this name change came some actions: an MoU signed with leading frontier AI firm Anthropic, the creation of a sovereign AI unit, new partnerships across government, including with the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, the Ministry of Defence’s science and technology organisation “to assess the risks posed by frontier AI”, and a new criminal misuse team which will work jointly with the Home Office to conduct research on a range of crime and security issues which threaten to harm British citizens. 

Quoted

“AI has the potential to transform how governments serve their citizens. We look forward to exploring how Anthropic’s AI assistant Claude could help UK government agencies enhance public services, with the goal of discovering new ways to make vital information and services more efficient and accessible to UK residents. We will continue to work closely with the UK AI Security Institute to research and evaluate AI capabilities in order to ensure secure deployment.”

Dario Amodei, CEO and co-founder of Anthropic

As with the AI Summit at the beginning of the week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer chose not to attend, breaking a precedent set by his predecessors Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson. He did, however, have a call with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Over the line, Starmer told Zelenskyy that the UK would always offer concrete support for Ukraine, for as long as it’s needed, and that he was unequivocal that there could be no talks about Ukraine without Ukraine. Further, he “reiterated the UK’s commitment to Ukraine being on an irreversible path to NATO, as agreed by Allies at the Washington Summit last year.”

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UN SECURITY COUNCIL

• The UK strongly condemns tragic death of World Food Programme staff member in Houthi detention

• The UN must play a vital role in stabilising and rebuilding Syria

Noted

The Government of Turkmenistan has creative ways of extracting US dollars from foreign visitors. Per Foreign Office guidance, these include a compulsory Covid-19 test on arrival ($31), sped-up visa processing ($150), bringing in a car ($150), a 'migration fee' on arrival ($14), and a daily tourism tax of $2 for each 24 hour period spent in the country.

DEFENCE

• The Defence Select Committee met Finland’s President Alex Stubb at the Embassy in-country. Both sides “share the view that decisions concerning Ukraine cannot be made without Ukraine.”

• More than 100 high-skilled jobs will be secured in the UK thanks to a new £250 million contract to upgrade the communications systems of the Royal Navy’s warship and submarine fleet.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

• Two British nationals have been arrested in Iran and given access to the UK ambassador, Hugo Shorter, according to reports.

SANCTIONS

• Britain announced new sanctions on high-profile figures working in the Russian Government and supporters of Russian state-owned business.

• Stephen Doughty, Europe Minister, announced sanctions on Syria would be changing in light of the new regime.

SOFT POWER

• His Majesty King Charles III sent a condolence message following the death of former Namibian President H.E. DR Sam Nujoma.

• The British High Commission in Fiji will provide $120,000 to support the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s legal and public relations initiatives from January to March 2025.

• HHJ Martin Picton, Director of International Training at the UK's Judicial College, recently visited Tonga to run training for Tongan judges.

TRADE

• Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary, spoke at Samsung KX in London. “Ahead of our Trade Strategy’s publication, we are leveraging our relationships with Europe, China, India and the Gulf and beyond so businesses can make the UK their base to connect with global markets.”

AI AND EMERGING TECH

• Britain renamed its AI Safety Institute to become its AI Security Institute. The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology signed an MoU with leading AI firm Anthropic,

• Home Office Intelligence and Border Force are working together to seize suspect freight consignments at the UK border by automating some of the risk analysis.

• UK-KSA private sector ties in the biotechnology sphere grew closer, with an MoU between two companies attended by the British High Commissioner.

• In South Africa, a North-South partnership between the Genomic Surveillance Unit (GSU) at the Wellcome Sanger Institute and the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI) at Stellenbosch University (SU) received approximately 8.7 million RAND in funding from the FCDO.

AID

• The Foreign Office published a breakdown of its £9.3 billion ODA for 2024/25, including by country. Country aid spending in Africa will be £1.5 billion, the Middle East and North Africa £852 million, and £280 million in the Indo-Pacific. Other departments are also responsible for spending.

• Christine Rowlands, High Commissioner, visited Belize Botanic Gardens to celebrate the success of a biodiversity restoration project funded by a £200,000 grant from the UK’s Darwin Initiative.

DIPLOMATS

• Ameer Kotecha has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to the Republic of Liberia.

• Gareth Bayley, Ambassador to Egypt, met Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawi.

• Abda Sharif, Ambassador to Yemen, met Yemen’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Dr. Shaya Zindani

Source

The inaugural UK-Kyrgyz Strategic Dialogue took place in London. The communique was signed between the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic, Meder Abakirov and Stephen Doughty, the Minister for Europe, and included a discussion of how Britain could help finance various initiatives in the critical-mineral rich nation.

It’s the latest in a calibrated push, begun under then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary David Cameron, into the Central Five Asian region traditionally dominated by Russia and China. Trade between both nations has seen significant growth recently, with 2024 bilateral trade up 73.5% from the previous year to £144 million., but there’s a strong chance the UK’s exports are being shipped on to Russia.

Some of the components covered in the dialogue included:

• Critical Minerals & Private Investment – The UK will support Kyrgyzstan’s critical minerals strategy and attract private investment in key sectors.

• UK Export Finance (UKEF) Collaboration – Continued discussions on infrastructure financing, following the UK’s £1.8bn credit line announcement in December 2024.

• Education & English Language Support – Expansion of UK-Kyrgyz education cooperation, including the delivery of 60,000 English language textbooks.

• Human Rights & Governance – Emphasis on international human rights obligations, civil society consultation, and UN Human Rights Council cooperation.