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Deputy PM in Africa, PM and Ukraine, GCC visit: Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker
As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run for fun in my free time.
Hello,
Few have had a life as varied as Edward Luttwak. From attending Chairman Mao's funeral, consulting for the Pentagon, advising on how to minimise dolphin poaching, and late nights drinking with Vladimir Putin, he has his fingerprints on some of the most interesting plans and ideas in the world of statecraft. The author of one of the most authoritative books on executing a coup has some lessons for plotters: take control of the state's repressive machinery (military, police, security services) rather than attacking the entire state apparatus, establish checkpoints to restrict movement, and present the coup as being carried out by a committee or group, not an individual.
Let us play a game. You’re the newly minted Chief of MI6, and I am your humble adviser. We have been given a creative and wide-reaching remit to try and disrupt regimes and groups globally that threaten British interests. What ideas could we spitball?
Events in Argentina could be as good a place as any to start to learn about the new possibilities on offer. Its leader, President Javier Milei, is currently facing significant heat for endorsing Libra, a memecoin, which looks to have been rug-pulled as the price tanked. What’s that Chief? Oh right. A memecoin is a cryptocurrency that started as a joke or based on an internet meme, and a rug pull is a scam in the crypto world where you create one of these tokens, hype it up, get people to invest, and then suddenly withdraw all the funds, making the token worthless.
Why is that relevant? Well, we could find a country where the government is openly hostile to our national interests, and where the population is keen not to keep their money in their nation’s volatile currency, instead turning to other avenues for storing it. Perhaps we can astroturf in a new memecoin, encouraged ‘organically’ by us using local and international agencies to pay social media influencers, low-level officials and athletes to promote it further? Yes Chief, we may even be able to one of the leader’s advisers to pitch it directly to them! That might not cost too much. And then, at a moment of our choosing, we orchestrate a rug pull. Damage confidence in the leadership, financially impact those in the regime, including low-level officials, and stir popular resentment.
I’m fired? Fair enough Chief.
— Sam Hogg (come and say hello)
Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, attended an emergency summit of European leaders in Paris to discuss Europe's security in light of potential changes in US foreign policy towards Ukraine and the continent. Said an adviser of the Prime Minister: "The U.S. are clearly open to proposals. But we need to present them with a clear pitch on what European nations can offer." Mr Starmer heads to the United States next week, where he will meet President Donald Trump.
Mr Starmer confirmed for the first time that he was willing to send British troops to Ukraine to enforce a future peace deal, acknowledging it could put troops "in harm's way." Sources leaked that Britain would also consider offering up air support in the event of any peace deal with dozens of Typhoon fighter jets. Discussions in Westminster continued about raising defence spending to surpass 2.5% of GDP, with many analysts saying this would still not be enough.
Angela Rayner, the Deputy Prime Minister, visited Ethiopia and Ghana. Her trip focused on building business links between the nations. Lord Collins, the Minister for Africa, visited Kenya and Tanzania.
David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, attended the G20 gathering in South Africa. In a speech titled “The Global Geopolitical Situation”, Mr Lammy stated "at the heart of my government’s approach to foreign policy lies the belief that regional and geopolitical stability can only be delivered through respect for international law and the principles of the UN Charter."
John Healey, the Defence Secretary, delivered a speech on defence reform progress. It relayed a sense of frustration over procurement pipelines and the Ministry of Defence’s opaque and slow systems. He also travelled to Norway and signed a new defence agreement.
Peter Kyle, the Science and Technology Secretary, and Poppy Gustafsson, an Investment Minister, were in the Gulf. Their trips were financially motivated, aiming to increase investment in the UK. Also present in Riyadh: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio for preliminary talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on ending the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was not part of these talks and was instead in Turkey meeting President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Donald Trump, the President of the United States, implied he would bring in 25% tariffs on imports of cars, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. These sectors collectively account for over £18 billion in annual British exports to the US, with automotive exports alone valued at £8.3 billion in 2024
Sadiq Khan, the London Mayor, hosted EU Ambassador Pedro Serrano and the UK ambassadors of the 27 EU member countries. Khan told them he was "strongly in favour" of a new youth mobility scheme.
James Risch, a U.S. Republican Senator, described the British deal to hand the Chagos Islands to Mauritius as a "dangerous surrender" to China.
The Foreign Office summoned the Rwandan High Commissioner following advances made by the Rwandan Defence Force and M23 in eastern DRC.
1. Ukraine
KEY POINTS:
PM Keir Starmer met European leaders in Paris to assess UK support for Ukraine, emphasising that a US security guarantee is essential to deter Putin. He aimed to position Britain as a bridge between Europe and the US ahead of his Washington visit.
Mr Starmer called for increased UK defence spending and signaled a willingness to deploy British troops to Ukraine, raising political and logistical challenges. He also disagreed with Donald Trump’s claim that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was a dictator ahead of his trip to Washington next week.
Meanwhile, Defence Secretary John Healey pushed for urgent MoD procurement reforms to improve efficiency and value for money.
The geopolitical landscape remains volatile. Mr Trump used harsh rhetoric to accuse Ukraine and Zelenskyy of starting the war and not holding elections in the manner of a dictator. His Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, began a potential US-Russia rapprochement, the demands from Washington appear to include vast minaral claims and elections in Ukraine.
Potential alpha exists around the pricing of defence companies, which are likely to benefit from a sustained European change in defence spending.
It was a week of leaks, diplomatic turbulence, and geopolitical upheaval. Prime Minister Keir Starmer joined his European counterparts in Paris on Monday to try and assess what Britain could offer Ukraine. A key message emerging from all European camps, including Britain, is that while they are willing to lead on Ukrainian security issues, they need the guarantee of a US backstop, or as Defence Secretary John Healey put it: "it is only the US that can provide the deterrence to Putin that will prevent him attacking again". The nature of Britain’s current set-up means it sits downstream of many key decisions made in Washington; and Donald Trump’s administration is unorthodox in its approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine war. To this end, Mr Starmer has sought to position himself as a bridge between Europe and the United States throughout this process, and will travel to Washington next week.
In comments aired after the gathering, the Prime Minister acknowledged “in this moment we have to recognise the new era we are in, not cling hopelessly to the comforts of the past,” but argued that the US will need to serve as a backstop to any ceasefire or peace. Expanding, he set out two aims in an op-ed in The Telegraph. First, Britain and other European nations “must increase our defence spending and take on a greater role in NATO. Non-US Nato nations have already increased defence spending by 20 per cent in the past year, but we must go further.” Second, Britain would be “willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary.” The former raises questions about how Labour will raise defence spending without breaking manifesto commitments on raising tax, while the latter saw some prominent British politicians, like Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey, call for a Parliamentary vote before boots touched the ground in Ukraine.
Quoted
“While European nations must step up in this moment – and we will – US support will remain critical and a US security guarantee is essential for a lasting peace, because only the US can deter Putin from attacking again.”
Prime Minister Keir Starmer
Further diplomatic chaos broke out on Wednesday, with Mr Trump declaring Zelenskyy a “dictator” who had provoked the war. In comments, Vice-President J.D. Vance seemed to imply the Ukrainian leader’s disparaging of Mr Trump’s peace efforts had led to this. The best summation of the geopolitical situation was delivered on Newsnight by Sir Alex Younger, Former Chief of MI6.
Even if defence spending is raised, some practical realities merit consideration. 2,500 British soldiers from the Army's high readiness force, the First Division, are currently in Romania, 16 miles (25km) from the border with Ukraine. They could be deployed, but this, in turn, requires diverting combat-ready troops from existing NATO obligations in Estonia, Poland, and domestic rapid reaction forces.
Noted
The 1999 Kosovo model of troops on the ground to maintain peace and security required 50,000 NATO troops for a country one-tenth of Ukraine’s size. Experts quoted in the BBC estimate the number needed for Ukraine could be around 100,000.
Additionally, the Ministry of Defence procurement needs reforming rapidly: 44% of MoD contracts are non-competitively awarded to companies such as BAE Systems and other primes, creating a "closed ecosystem" that stifles SME innovation. On the industrial side, the MoD currently sources only 25% of its steel from UK producers despite domestic mills producing 95% of required defence-grade steel, with industry body UK Steel saying “It is likely that MOD procurement officials do not realise that the United Kingdom has a range of domestic steel producers and suppliers with the capacity to produce key products for defence and security of national supply.”
Acutely aware of this, Defence Secretary John Healey has spent the last year reforming the MoD’s accountability and incentive structure. He delivered a speech this week updating on these findings and efforts. “We’re simply not securing the value for money our armed forces, our economy needs for every defence panel,” he noted, adding “[on] procurement, we’ve got a situation where we employ eleven checkers for every one decision maker. So, no wonder it takes an average six years for a large programme simply to get onto contract.” To attempt to fix this, Mr Healey has two major reviews underway - the Strategic Defence Review and the Defence Reform. Time will tell if they can bring in the change at the speed this moment demands.
2. African outreach
KEY POINTS
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner met Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed and Deputy PM Temesgen Tiruneh, and attended signing of a $600m British private equity investment in Ethiopia’s dairy sector.
She visited the Ethiopian Securities Exchange, Ethiopian Airlines HQ, and AI Institute, and delivered 12 UK-funded ambulances with the Red Cross.
In Ghana, she spoke of potential areas of economic collaboration.
Lord Collins visited Kenya and Tanzania, focusing on military cooperation and economic ties. In Kenya, he discussed UK-Kenya investment partnerships and military exercises. In Tanzania, toured Dar es Salaam port, a key UK-backed trade hub.
UK’s Africa engagement remained fragmented, lagging behind China, Turkey, and the UAE in investment.
The pursuit of growth finds British politicians travelling to increasingly distant lands. This time it was the turn of Angela Rayner, Britain’s Deputy Prime Minister, to visit two vibrant African nations.
In Africa’s second most populous country, Ms Rayner met Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and her counterpart Temesgen Tiruneh. Ethiopia’s GDP growth hovers at around 6%, hampered by drought and war. To this end, she sought to align Labour’s focus on "green, inclusive growth” with Ethiopia’s need for climate-resilient infrastructure, attending the signing of British private equity firm Asset Green’s new partnership with Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), the country’s state investment arm, in a deal that will see the PE firm invest $600m in dairy farming and processing initiatives. The Deputy Prime Minister also rang the bell at the newly opened Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX) in Addis Ababa and visited Ethiopian Airways HQ.
Noted
Ethiopia claims to boast the largest livestock population in Africa: 70.3 million cattle, 42.9 million sheep, 52.5 million goats and 8.1 million camels. Despite this, milk yields remain low, but a Government strategy aimed at transforming the dairy sector is being implemented.
Other aspects of her trip were less commercial, including visits to schools and the launch of a UK-Ethiopia designers platform. Interestingly, the Deputy Prime Minister also visited the Ethiopian Artificial Intelligence Institute. The EAII aims to be the premier African AI research & development centre by 2030, and has two interesting Chinese partnerships: Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST) to develop a data centre tasked with integrating African scripts into online platforms, and Harbin Institute of Technology to advance AI-driven innovation. On a stopover with the Red Cross, she delivered 12 fully equipped UK-funded ambulances.
Noted
Also in town? Valentina Matvienko, Speaker of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, leading a high-level delegation. Agegnehu Teshager, Speaker of Ethiopia's House of Federation, thanked Russia for its support during United Nations Security Council deliberations concerning Ethiopia's national interests [and alleged human rights abuses] and acknowledged Russia's backing of Ethiopia's BRICS membership. Russian state media outlet Sputnik opened its first African multifunctional newsroom too.
In Ghana, the Deputy Prime Minister congratulated President John Dramani Mahama on his recent election victory. In a joint press conference, Ms Rayner said “what struck me is your election was around the 24-hour economy...we have a mutual aspiration for both the UK economy and here in Ghana,” emphasising that both nations needed to make an effort “to make sure that both our economies can grow and that people on the ground can really see that, the jobs that fulfil their family life.” Mr Mahama reflected that the world was becoming more unpredictable, “where relations between countries were becoming very transactional.” He added “And so working together to see how we can bring in more investment, especially considering we are shut out in the international credit markets, to bring in more direct foreign investments to be able to create jobs” was an area of interest.
Quoted
“I think that we can achieve great things together and the fact that the UK government is aligned on growth, and your government is focused on growth to create good jobs for people”.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, speaking in Ghana
Also in Africa? Lord Collins, whose ministerial brief covers the continent. His whistlestop tour included Kenya (where Britain joined two military exercises, land-based Exercise Justified Accord, and naval Exercise Cutlass Express, with the armed forces of 29 countries, including 22 African nations) and Tanzania. In Nairobi, Mr Collins spoke to senior Kenyan officials about the Strategic Partnership between both countries: recent movements have included the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) and the UK's MOBILIST program launching a collaboration aimed at introducing new investment products in Kenya, and a joint call for proposals in the clean energy sector.
In Tanzania, the Labour Peer visited Dar es Salaam port, of particular interest because of its strategic importance (95% of the country's international trade passes through, and bordering nations use it too) and the new railroad connected to it which British firms and the government aided financially. On a macro level, British companies such as Shell support Tanzania’s development of offshore gas fields and LNG production. Although Britain doesn’t buy it, its production helps create (in theory) a more stable global international market.
Noted
The Foreign Office summoned the Rwandan High Commissioner this week, following advances made by the Rwandan Defence Force and M23 in eastern DRC. Britain’s commitments to Rwanda exceed £800 million across various streams since 2022.
3. G20
KEY POINTS
The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting was held on the African continent for the first time.
South Africa invited senior representatives from 19 nations, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not attend amid diplomatic tensions.
Britain was represented by Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who criticised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and affirmed the UK's broader interest in global conflicts.
Mr Lammy underscored the importance of international law and the UN Charter, highlighted initiatives with the Global South—including doubling aid for Sudan and planning a London conference.
Other speakers, including President Cyril Ramaphosa, China’s Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi, and India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, stressed that global challenges such as geopolitical tensions, climate change, and economic pressures require coordinated, inclusive responses.
The gathering revealed deepening divides between Western and Global South priorities, with the absence of key Western figures further weakening consensus-building.
For the first time in history, a G20 Foreign Ministers gathering was held on the African continent. Hosts South Africa assembled senior representatives from 19 other nations, excluding US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who chose not to attend - partly tied to Washington’s ongoing diplomatic beef with the rainbow nation. Rubio posted on Twitter saying the reason for his G20 absence was South Africa using the gathering to promote diversity, equality and inclusion frameworks, “In other words: DEI and climate change.”
Representing Britain was Foreign Secretary David Lammy. Having got the obligatory “we’re doing this as part of our Plan for Growth to boost the UK’s economy” clip out the way, Mr Lammy delivered a speech before his peers aimed at chastising Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and showing Britain took an interest in conflicts and concerns outside of Europe. ‘The Global Geopolitical Situation’ provides insights into the influences governing the Foreign Secretary’s outlook.
International norms and laws were mentioned, with emphasis, frequently: “The heart of my government’s approach to foreign policy lies the belief that regional and geopolitical stability can only be delivered through respect for international law and the principles of the UN Charter.”
Mr Lammy’s focus: “Since starting this job, I’ve made a reset with the so called Global South, a central plank of the UK Foreign Policy, and it’s why I doubled British aid for Sudan, and I prepared a conference in London to push for a political process which will end the fighting and protect civilians.”
An effort to try and draw a connecting line between conflicts in Europe, potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific, and the African continent: “There can be no geopolitical stability, whilst there remains a hierarchy of conflicts, with those on this continent finding themselves at the bottom of the global pile.”
Noted
The Foreign Office is pairing up its diplomats with private sector employees from the Big 4 accounting firms. It’s part of a drive to raise the business savvy-ness of those in Charles Street. “Our diplomats are the salesforce for UK plc overseas,” said Mr Lammy.
It’s worth knowing what some other ministers and leaders used their speeches to convey.
South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa: “Geopolitical tensions, rising intolerance, conflict and war, climate change, pandemics and energy and food insecurity threaten an already fragile global coexistence. These challenges are interconnected. They require responses that are inclusive and coordinated.”
China’s Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi: "China has noticed that recently the calls for peace talks are rising and the window of opportunity for peace is opening. Although the parties have different positions and it is hard to find simple solutions to complex issues, dialogue is always better than confrontation and peace talks better than fighting."
Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar: “The global geopolitical situation remains difficult by any definition. Some of it is the accumulated challenges of the Covid pandemic, conflict situations, financial pressures, food security and climate concerns. Looking ahead, differential progress on Artificial intelligence and Electric vehicles, space, drones or green hydrogen have clear geopolitical implications.”
Ultimately, this gathering underscored deepening divides between Western and Global South priorities. The absence of key Western figures weakened consensus-building, reflecting a fragmented global governance landscape.
UN SECURITY COUNCIL
Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on Libya.
Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on threats to international peace and security.
Explanation of vote by Ambassador Barbara Woodward, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, following the vote on the UN Security Council resolution renewing the mandate of the 1591 Committee Panel of Experts
Statement by Ambassador James Kariuki at the Special Committee on Peacekeeping Operations (C-34).
Noted
Of the top 10 companies submitting patents related to quantum technology, seven are American and three are Chinese.
DEFENCE
John Healey, the Defence Secretary, visited Norway and signed a new defence agreement.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, spoke to the Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre.
SANCTIONS
Britain’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) and Indonesia's Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) agreed to strengthen collaboration on transnational corruption cases.
SOFT POWER
Lindsay Hoyle MP, Speaker of the House, was in Malaysia to discuss the workings of Parliament.
Three National Members of Parliament from the Solomon Islands toured Westminster and Tynwald (Isle of Man) Parliament.
TRADE & ECONOMY
Britain and Kazakhstan are seeking closer cooperation in infrastructure developments, with a joint session being held in Astana recently between diplomats.
AI AND EMERGING TECH
Britain and India held a UK-India Knowledge Exchange Workshop on Al-Based Climate Modelling Centre and Policy Making session.
AID
Simon McDonald, the former head of the Foreign Office, warned the Chancellor not to cut Britain’s international aid spending.
Jeremy Browne, a former foreign office minister, urged the government to reduce foreign aid spending and put the money saved towards funding the military.
British International Investment (BII), the government’s investment arm for international development that receives taxpayer funding and is owned by the Foreign Office, spent more than £7mn on business-class flights in the past two years, according to newly disclosed data.
Britain, through its Sustainable Blue Economies Programme Blue Social Challenge Fund, has awarded a grant of £99,191 (approximately BZD250,000) to MarAlliance for the project “Mangrove Habitat for Juvenile Fish Recruitment: Building Local Knowledge and Capacity” in Belize.
DIPLOMATS
Charles King has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to Somalia.
Alex Pinfield has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to Morocco.
Jane Marriott, veteran High Commissioner to Pakistan, has been busy. She’s recently been using speeches to warn that 47% of Pakistan's agricultural land could become unsuitable for farming by 2050, if immediate action is not taken to address climate change. Agriculture contributes 24% of GDP and employs 37.4% of the workforce in the country.
[Source]
KEY POINTS
Peter Kyle (Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology) and Baroness (Poppy) Gustafsson (Investment Minister) visited Qatar and Saudi Arabia .
Labour’s economic strategy targets the GCC for inward investment, with a proposed FTA potentially boosting trade by 16%—adding an estimated £8.6bn annually to existing trade.
Further investment is encouraged, highlighted by GCC sovereign wealth funds’ £29bn contribution to UK infrastructure (2016–2023) and the Gulf’s recognised strategic defence role.
Mr Kyle toured tech sectors in Saudi Arabia and met key Qatari officials, while Ms Gustafsson stressed prioritising renewable energy and AI investment.
The evolving UK-GCC relationship, underpinned by historical ties and post-Brexit pragmatism, now requires balancing economic ambitions with ethical and geopolitical realities.
International attention turned to the Gulf this week, as Saudi Arabia hosted American and Russian officials for the first Trump-era attempt to thrash out an end to the latter’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Not invited but very much present in the country (although working to a different agenda): Peter Kyle, Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, and Baroness (Poppy) Gustafsson, Britain’s Investment Minister.
To grow the economy, Labour has spotlighted various foreign governments and blocs as key targets for attracting inward investment, while finalising its own trade strategy (publication of which is due soon). One such bloc is the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a prime target over the last fifty years due to its London-loving petro-rich states, hungry sovereign wealth funds, and need to diversify from oil.
Quoted
“Growth is the number one mission of this government. Central to growing our economy and ensuring working people in every community feel the benefits of that growth, is an expansion of FTAs with strategic partners…a mutually beneficial FTA between the UK and the GCC will deliver economic growth, higher wages and new investment. A deal will deliver targeted growth that could increase bilateral trade by 16%, potentially adding an extra £8.6 billion a year to trade between the UK and GCC countries in the long run. This £8.6bn is on top of the £57.4bn worth of trade that we already have.”
Douglas Alexander, Minister of State for Trade Policy and Economic Security
Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, has spoken endlessly of the need to attract more investment, on top of the already existing £29 billion GCC sovereign wealth funds invested into UK infrastructure between 2016–2023. On defence, the 2021 Integrated Review noted the Gulf’s strategic importance.
Noted
It was a distinguished British diplomat, Sir William Luce, who played a pivotal role in shaping the political landscape of the Middle East during the mid-20th century. Notably, he was instrumental in the creation of the United Arab Emirates in 1971, successfully uniting the previously semi-independent sheikhdoms of the Gulf into a single nation.
Mr Kyle visited multiple sites in Saudi Arabia covering health tech to telecoms and genetics. An accompanying government Twitter post noted that KSA and Qatar “are natural partners to the UK because of their ambition, openness to innovation & strength in science & tech.” He also met Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister His Excellency Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, and a Qatar computer hub with a world-first LLM. Separately, Ms Gustafsson told Qatari media “The Government will prioritise sub-sectors that meet our objectives. This includes areas like renewable energy and AI, and Qatar will be a key partner as we explore investment opportunities across these areas.”
The UK-GCC relationship, shaped by historical ties and post-Brexit pragmatism, faces a defining decade. While the FTA offers economic dividends, reconciling ethical concerns with strategic imperatives will test Westminster’s “progressive realism.” As GCC states diversify from hydrocarbons, Britain aims to transition from patron to partner, leveraging expertise without overreliance on petrodollars. Success hinges on balancing trade ambitions with the geopolitical realities of a multipolar Gulf.