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AI, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei,: Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker

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Mar 14, 2025

As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run for fun in my free time.

Hello,

In earlier eras, alliances and power dynamics among nations revolved around traditional levers of influence - natural resources, military and technology capabilities, a complex understanding of national character and interests. Today, a new factor is decisively reshaping international relations: artificial intelligence, and the vast computational machinery underpinning it. Britain, groping in the dark, is beginning to feel the contours of shapes it can’t quite recognise yet. But progress is underway.

Today, powerful states strategise about how to utilise artificial intelligence as an instrument of self-preservation, power and influence. They bid to attract frontier AI labs, cutting-edge chips, and fabs. They understand the need to view this as a key strategic pillar, an entire stack. This week, China’s top economic officials vowed to set up a state-backed fund to support technological innovation, focusing on cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology and hydrogen energy storage. Indeed, AI now shapes not only economic and technological landscapes, but increasingly how countries engage with each other, bilaterally or in blocs.

Consider, for instance, Britain’s current relationship with the United States. The ‘Special Relationship’, historically anchored in at least a pretence of shared values and strategic collaboration, now manifests itself as more transactional; a constant conversation around ‘here’s what we have to offer, if you do this in return,’ and one in which one side has more leverage. In this scenario, AI finds new impetus. British diplomats are making considerable efforts to get a trade agreement over the line by dangling frontier AI collaboration, privately playing to Washington’s fears that another country might reach supremacy first. Cooperation in artificial intelligence is increasingly perceived not merely as a technological collaboration but as an opportunity to reinforce and deepen broader diplomatic ties. Is it ugly? Perhaps. Is it working? We shall soon see.

Amara's Law states that we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run. So a warning: those who overlook the geopolitical reverberations of AI risk misunderstanding the critical movements reshaping the global order at this exact moment.

This project passed 4,000 followers on Monday, and around 12,000 views a month. Thank you for your kind feedback and ideas.

— Sam Hogg

Thank you for the support. This project is growing at the rate of 1,000 followers a month, so please do share it in your embassy/department/board room.

Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, spoke to President of the United States, Donald Trump. The call took place ahead of US and Ukrainian delegates meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss ceasefire terms in Ukraine. Following the gathering, Mr Starmer published a statement of support.
David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, visited the Philippines. It marked the second leg of his Eastern journey, having arrived from Japan. Mr Lammy then flew to Canada for a G7 meeting.
John Healey, the Defence Secretary, visited France. He was in Paris with a military attache to discuss pressing defence matters.
Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, began a days-long visit to China. Per Politico, the trip is all about overhauling relations on energy, and Mr Miliband is expected to come away from the trip having penned a new clean energy partnership to replace the old one signed back in 2015 and an MoU on climate.
Catherine West, the Indo Pacific Minister, visited Malaysia and Brunei. Among other outings, she oversaw the signing of an MoU between two semiconductor firms.
Lord Collins, Minister for Africa and the UN, visited New York. At the UN Security Council meeting on Sudan, he announced that Britain will convene Foreign Ministers in London to help end the conflict and to improve the humanitarian response in Sudan.
Stephen Doughty, a Foreign Office Minister, held an Aurora Forum roundtable with Nordic and Baltic countries on security and defence matters.

Noted

Images from Chinese social media began circulating on global platforms this week showing three Chinese vessels combined together, rolling out a landing bridge. Analysts noted the images with one eye on Taiwan.

1. Ukraine, USA, and Britain’s Plan for Change

KEY POINTS:
Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed the next stage of talks between Ukraine and the United States. In a phonecall in the hours before the meeting in Riydah, he stated he hoped for a positive outcome, and offered cautious praise for the readout.
British interlocators had been engaging with Ukrainian officials ahead of the meeting, including the National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell.
Britain is keen to secure a trade agreement with the United States, and views its technology - AI particularly - as one point of leverage.

Britain’s relationship with the United States continues to consume significant bandwidth in Westminster. At a macro level, Downing Street is driven by three issues.

Ukraine: The British Government, along with France, is trying to keep the US engaged in the ongoing situation, pushing for Washington to serve as a “backstop” for a European military force on the ground. Despite fawning British press coverage, it’s not yet clear how much influence Prime Minister Keir Starmer has over any of President Donald Trump’s key decisions around Ukraine. Mr Trump seems uninterested in many of the proposals put forward by the continent, including those on the joint ticket of Mr Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron. Like the rest of Europe, both have been relegated to observer status: neither was invited to Saudi Arabia this week to help Ukraine in negotiations, although Mr Starmer offered support for the initial readout. From Moscow’s point of view, a ceasefire at the moment is more advantageous to Ukraine than itself: Russia will have a stronger hand in the summer as American aid dries up.

Growth: “The number one priority for this Government is the growth of the UK economy." Did that quote come from a transcript of a recent speech by the Chancellor? No. It came from a press release about Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s visit to Canada for the G7 Foreign Ministers gathering this week. As noted several times previously, Mr Starmer views a weak economy as an issue of national security. Economic growth is therefore a major domestic and foreign policy priority, and consequently, high on new Ambassador Peter Mandelson’s agenda is getting a trade deal signed off with the United States (and avoiding various tariffs in the process). Mr Mandelson has been pitching the concept of MEGA - Make (our) Economies Great Again - and seems to view tech and AI as principal drivers. In return, the United States may look to halt the UK’s efforts to hedge on certain technology issues (think Apple), and will likely want to see a more lax regulation environment than in Europe.

Britain - along with every other nation, as pointed out by Australia’s Ambassador to the United States and former Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd - failed to get what they wanted out of US tariffs on imported steel this week. The Government’s view is a softly softly approach works best, although MPs and various parts of the commentariat were unimpressed. The majority of the latter two groups said almost nothing of importance while Britain gutted its steel industry over the last decade, with no outside help from Washington.

Quoted

“And that’s why we raised our defence spending. Which we also need to use as opportunity to renew our communities. Because more now than ever, national security is economic security. And strength abroad, and we definitely need that more than ever at the moment, but that demands security back at home.”

Prime Minister Keir Starmer, speech this week

Liberal International Order: It is still not clear to Downing Street when and why Mr Trump follows through on some of his many statements, and therefore what impact America will have on the international order over the next half decade. As Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs Hal Brands argued in a recent Foreign Affairs piece, “Trump could succeed at today’s more limited and more vital undertaking: upholding a balance of power that preserves that order’s essential achievements against Eurasian aggressors determined to tear them down. The problem is that this will require Trump to consistently channel his best geopolitical instincts when he will be sorely tempted to follow his most destructive ones instead.”

What are Mr Trump’s aims beyond bringing ‘ceasefire’ to various ongoing conflicts around the world? How does he reconcile this with his ongoing plans to annex Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal? How does America First sit with the international rules-based order? Consider just one major issue: defence. As an effort to build resilience into the system, Britain and European counterparts have begun efforts to rebuild their defences: this will take many years and will require both smarter mobilisation of capital and proper procurement reform. Britain’s capabilities are limited, as are those in France and Germany. So do they increase their exposure to America in the short term by purchasing more goods from Washington? As Mr Brands concludes: “The potential upside of Trump’s presidency is substantial. The potential downside is an abyss.”

Noted

40% of the MoD’s contracts in the last financial year were non-competitive, to the tune of some £16.4bn. Currently, only 4% of defence spending goes to SMEs.

2. South China Sea diplomacy

Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited the Philippines.
He met Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo, and Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. to discuss enhancing cooperation in areas such as defense, regional security, trade, and climate action.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy spent 48 hours in Manila on a flyover visit on his return from Tokyo. The primary takeaway from this visit was the signing of the Philippines-UK Joint Framework, which builds on an enhanced partnership deal the pair signed in 2021, covering defence and other critical sectors. The other set piece involved Mr Lammy meeting the Filipino Coast Guard, and filming a video on one of their vessels criticising the Chinese government’s behaviour in the South China Sea.

Quoted

“For me to come to the Philippines off the back of a trip that I made to Japan, to come to countries where we see the world through the same eyes, we’re aligned in our approach—there is so much that we can continue to do together.”

Foreign Secretary David Lammy

Trade between both nations has grown steadily: the first Joint Economic Committee (JETCO) meeting between the pair will take place later this month in London, upgrading the economic cooperation dialogue. Given the British firms investing in the Philippines - Unilever, Shell, HSBC, Standard Chartered, AstraZeneca and so on - and based on past discussions, it seems likely the JETCO will cover market access and similar initiatives. On the defence front, the Philippines have looked to Britain for support on wider issues in the South China Sea, and HMS Spey, the Royal Navy’s offshore vessel, visited the Philippines twice last year.

Noted

Britain and the Philippines celebrate 80 years of diplomatic relations next year.

A readout of the bilateral meeting with Minister for Foreign Affairs Enrique A. Manalo noted the Filipino Minister “expressed appreciation for the UK's statement of support for the Philippines against coercive actions in the SCS”, and that “Secretary Lammy reaffirmed the UK's commitment to the Philippines and to a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

Quoted

“The UK should respect China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea and refrain from provoking tensions or sowing discord over regional disputes”.

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning, asked about Mr Lammy’s comments.

In the hours after Mr Lammy returned home, the Filipino government announced former President Rodrigo Duterte had been arrested in Manila, facing extradition to The Hague for his role in the country’s crackdown on drugs. Mr Duterte’s premiership had represented an awkwardness for British diplomatic engagement: a previous visit by then-Trade Minister Liam Fox was widely condemned.

3. Malaysia and Brunei

KEY POINTS:
Catherine West, the Minister for the Indo Pacific, visited South East Asia.
In Malaysia, the Minister met counterparts including Minister for Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability Nik Nazmi and Deputy Minister Liew Chin Tong. Many of the meetings had strong emphasis on environmental collaboration.
In Brunei, the Minister met Finance Minister II, Dato Amin, and Foreign Minister II, YB Dato Erywan, for the 4th Strategic Dialogue.
In London, the Attorney General hosted Malaysian Law Minister, Y.B Azalina and a delegation.

A two-stage visit to the South East Asian region saw Catherine West, Minister for the Indo Pacific, re-emphasise Britain’s commitment to Indo-Pacific security, and double down on climate diplomacy.

Mrs West’s visit to Malaysia - the first since taking on the portfolio - followed in the shadow of the recently held inaugural ministerial-led Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) meeting between the two nations. Beyond Commonwealth celebrations, the visit had a strong tech angle: a portion of her trip involved witnessing the signing of an MoU between two semiconductor firms, and the Minister’s press release noted technology as an area where “we can and must develop together”. The Minister also reiterated the UK’s support for Malaysia’s chairmanship of ASEAN. Other activities focused on British support for climate initiatives in the region.

Quoted

“We can deepen our relationship even further around technology, artificial intelligence, exchanges on health, and some of the pharmaceutical interests here in Malaysia.”

Catherine West, Minister for the Indo Pacific

In Brunei, the Minister took part in the fourth Strategic Dialogue between the two nations. The third, hosted in London last year shortly after the 40-year anniversary of diplomatic relations between the pair, saw the then-Sunak government discussing key areas of cooperation, including trade, security, climate change, and education. Little appears to have changed on the agenda items this time around beyond the location. In comments to local media, Mrs West added “This is my first official visit to Brunei, one of the UK’s closest partners in the Indo-Pacific. Our bilateral links are closer than ever, with the recent establishment of a free trade deal and a renewed commitment from Brunei to host our permanent military base in Brunei for the next five years. It’s a symbol of the importance of the UK-Brunei relationship to economic growth and to regional security.”

Noted

Britain keeps troops permanently stationed in Brunei. It’s an effective outpost for mobilising them throughout the wider Indo-Pacific region.

China Energy talks

KEY POINTS
Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, begins a visit to China today, the first Energy Secretary to do so since 2017.
“Pragmatic cooperation with China will help keep British people safe from the climate crisis, as UK and Chinese ministers are set to meet in Beijing for the first formal talks to accelerate climate action in nearly 8 years," read the press release.
He will meet with China’s National Energy Administrator Minister Wang Hongzhi and China’s Ecology and Environment Minister Huang Runqiu in Beijing.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband’s visit to Beijing marks the first formal climate dialogue between the UK and China in nearly eight years, underscoring Britain’s renewed engagement with the world’s largest emitter. To pre-empt the usual criticism, in accompanying Guardian op-ed Mr Miliband stated “on my visit I will be in the business of challenge as well as cooperation, raising issues including forced labour in supply chains, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and human rights in Hong Kong. But disagreement cannot be an excuse for disengagement.”

The timing is significant: global temperatures hit record highs in 2024, and China had experienced 28 consecutive days above 35°C in Beijing last summer. China remains the largest investor in renewable energy but continues to emit more than the US, EU, India, and the UK combined. In the Government’s view, with extreme weather events escalating - from floods in the UK submerging thousands of acres of farmland to record heat-related deaths - re-engagement with China on climate cooperation is as much about British national security as it is about global emissions reductions.

Quoted

“We can only keep future generations safe from climate change if all major emitters act. It is simply an act of negligence to today’s and future generations not to engage China on how it can play its part in taking action on climate.”

Ed Miliband, Energy Secretary

The Energy Secretary plans to refresh an outdated 10-year-old UK Clean Energy Partnership with China. Per the press release, this “will now provide clarity on areas where the UK government can securely collaborate with China on areas of mutual benefit – such as new emerging technologies, including hydrogen and carbon capture and storage.” In terms of leverage, Britain is apparently going to share expertise on phasing out coal, having closed its last coal-fired power station last year.

Noted

President Donald Trump recently signed a memorandum that directs the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to restrict Chinese investments in strategic areas. These areas will likely cover similar ground to those proposed by Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as being ones China and Britain could collaborate on.

At the heart of the UK’s energy debate is the question of technological dependence and security. Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove’s recent comments in The Times highlight the unease within security circles, warning that Britain’s net-zero ambitions risk “handing power to Beijing.” The Financial Times likewise reported recently that MI5 was looking into Chinese green technology.

A guest post by

Sam Hogg

Publishing odd essays in my spare time, scrutinising geopolitical and AI tectonics. All my own views, none reflect my employers.

British Diplomacy Tracker

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AI, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei,: Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker

This project passed 4,000 followers on Monday, and around 12,000 views a month. Thank you for your kind feedback and ideas.

1. Ukraine, USA, and Britain’s Plan for Change

2. South China Sea diplomacy

3. Malaysia and Brunei

China Energy talks

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