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AGI, Balkans, JETCO: Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker
As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.
I’ve been travelling this week. As a result, this note will be shorter than usual while aiming to retain all the key details and focus on issues receiving less mainstream attention. Next week’s will be the same. Normal service resumes in a fortnight.
Hello,
In World Order, the late Henry Kissinger recounts a back and forth between two influential thinkers on defence and foreign policy. Discussing a proposal put forward by the great industrialist Andrew Carnegie to pursue a strategy of disarmament and international human rights, President Roosevelt responded: “We must always remember that it would be a fatal thing for the great free peoples to reduce themselves to impotence and leave the despotism and barbarism armed…the one thing I won’t do is to bluff when I cannot make good; to bluster and threaten and then fail to take the action if my words need to be backed up.”
Readers will be familiar with the notion that Britain is changing its defence posture. In short, this means increasing defence spending as a % of GDP, cutting overseas aid, reforming the defence procurement pipeline, and undertaking a wide-reaching defence review. Alliances and partnerships of the past will take on new dimensions, and potential chokepoints and supply chain issues a new light.
It’s worth taking stock of where the state currently spends its money. The Government spends nearly three times more on pensioner welfare than on defence. It spends over ten times as much on pensioner welfare as it does on science and technology, which includes supporting research into cutting-edge artificial intelligence and quantum projects. Debt interests alone cost 8%, or just a little more than the amount spent on defence, science and technology, energy security and the Foreign Office combined. A promise to hit 3% by the next Parliament is just that - a promise.
This is not to make a political point about demographics or Government fiscal policy. It is instead to focus the conversation on the reality: the defence budget is limited, the tectonics of how global warfare is conducted are changing, Britain’s defence procurement is, to put it mildly, dross, and Britain’s ability to project itself into key theatres will need better thinking. Efforts are underway on all these fronts.
The Government is finalising a Strategic Defence Review, reforming loans for defence SMEs, helping shape defence clusters, and attracting American defence companies to create new sites in the UK. Defence even received a passing (although unpromising) mention in the Chancellor’s newly published letter outlining the ‘Strategic Priorities to the National Wealth Fund’ this week. Most of these efforts should be lauded.
But other considerations and actions require more significant strategic capital. Where does Britain want to project its defensive posture? Is it still the Indo-Pacific? Is it on the European continent? Or is it in the High North, where Russia and China could begin to capitalise on global warming opening new maritime routes (and exploit the minimising the impact of sonar, per a recent NATO research paper)? Is it a mix of all three and more? What weapons, vehicles, vessels, and technologies reflect these priorities? What partnerships should Britain join to procure? Is the system set up to allow new financing for smaller defence companies?
In his recent book discussing the evolution of conflict from 1945 to the Ukraine War, General David Petraeus outlined four ideas leaders must grasp to work strategically:
Leaders must be able to assess the situation before them and craft an appropriate strategic response. In short, they need to get the big ideas right.
They must then be able to communicate the strategy effectively throughout their organisation and to external stakeholders.
They need to be able to oversee the implementation of the strategy, driving the execution of the campaign plan relentlessly and determinedly.
Finally, they must be able to revisit, refine and recommunicate 1), 2) and 3) as the situation develops
Prime Minister Keir Starmer is beginning to see that this is increasingly a transactional global order, and one in which Britain needs to move with confidence and dexterity. But with chaos comes opportunity, and with a clearly defined approach and restructuring, communicated clearly and executed relentlessly, Britain could punch above its weight.
— Sam Hogg
Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, continued to assemble and cajole European leaders on Ukraine-linked issues. Mr Starmer hosted new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (formerly of The Bank of England) in Downing Street; Mr Carney arrived from France, the first stop on his post-election victory tour. The Canadian premier also held an audience with His Majesty King Charles III at Buckingham Palace.
David Lammy and John Healey, Foreign and Defence Secretaries respectively, hosted Kaja Kallas, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, for further discussions. Mr Lammy delivered a major speech on geopolitics and the private sector’s engagement with the Foreign Office.
Peter Kyle, the Science and Technology Secretary, began a week-long trip to the United States.
Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, continued his tour of China. A refreshed Clean Energy Partnership deal was signed, but neither side chose to make the document public.
Jonathan Reynolds, the Business and Trade Secretary, visited Washington D.C. to try and smooth issues in bilateral trade. The major sticking point ahead of a potential trade agreement is US anger over Britain’s digital tax regime; the White House views it as an unfair tax on its social media giants. To this end, Peter Mandleson, Britain’s Ambassador over the pond, penned an article in The Hill arguing that British and US collaboration on tech and AI could both ‘MEGA - Make our Economies Great Again,’ and help secure two leading democracies against other, unnamed (read China) countries getting superintelligence first.
Hamish Falconer, a Foreign Office Minister with a Middle East brief, visited New York to take part in a United Nations session on Syria. Britain recently announced sanctions changes and a large aid package to try and get the war-torn country back on its feet, although human rights violations over the past fortnight evidence how difficult this process will be.
Stephen Doughty, a Foreign Office Minister, spoke to Belarusian President-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
1. The AI Frontier
KEY POINTS:
Britain wants to project its AI ambitions onto the global stage on business and geopolitical security fronts.
Two senior officials delivered speeches on the same day arguing AI and AGI will be future-defining.
AGI was identified as one of the three most pressing geopolitical issues of this era by the Foreign Secretary, the first time such an explicit analysis has been made.
As these briefing notes have often argued, to ignore the British Government’s artificial intelligence agenda is not merely to overlook a policy trend - it is to miss a cornerstone of how the UK is seeking to redefine its role in the world
Consider Thursday’s double-header: two of Whitehall’s most senior Cabinet ministers, Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle, delivered substantial speeches on separate continents. Mr Lammy addressed the British Chambers of Commerce in London, outlining a revamped commercial role for the Foreign Office. Mr Kyle, meanwhile, took to the stage at Nvidia’s GTC conference in San Jose, California, to court investors and present Britain as fertile ground for AI innovation.
Quoted
“The future success of our nations depends on our ability to harness epoch-defining changes in emerging technology in particular AI.
Like no technology before it, it will shape not just our economic prospects, but our national security, our welfare state and the pace of our transition to a clean economy. And we are in a hyper-competitive race between nations – and companies – to reap the advantages. That means we have to get behind our institutions and businesses. With far more energy and dynamism than before. Because – you don’t need me to tell you this – technology is the frontline of geopolitics.
As we move from an era of AI towards Artificial General Intelligence, we face a period where international norms and rules will have to adapt rapidly.”
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary
Despite the distance and differing audiences, the message was strikingly aligned. Both ministers framed AI not merely as an economic opportunity but as a matter of national resilience. “AI will bring deep disruption to almost every aspect of life as we know it,” Mr Kyle warned, adding that “the legitimacy of the state is at stake.” Mr Lammy struck a similarly geopolitical note, declaring that AI would shape “not just our economic prospects, but our national security, our welfare state and the pace of our transition to a clean economy.”
In tone and substance, the speeches demonstrated a rare coherence in British strategic messaging. The rhetoric of “partnership” between state and business featured prominently in both. Mr Kyle called for “a partnership that is tailored to the needs of our economic era,” while Mr Lammy said simply: “We need to rediscover that partnership now.”
Mr Kyle’s remarks in San Jose were focused outward but anchored in domestic renewal. He spoke of transforming Britain’s “relics of economic eras past into AI Growth Zones,” large-scale developments combining access to power, data infrastructure, and investment incentives. His plan involves turning unused post-industrial sites into high-capacity data centres, with one location earmarked for “close to 2 GW” — gigawatts, a measure of electricity capacity, on a scale typically associated with national infrastructure.
Noted
Peter Kyle met with key companies in the US tech sector including OpenAI, Anthropic, Nvidia, and Vantage on his visit.
Mr Lammy, for his part, set out what he sees as the three defining geopolitical forces of the age: the erosion of multilateral economic institutions, the resurgence of industrial activism, and the race to harness epoch-shaping technologies like AI. “Like it or not,” he said, “the laissez-faire approach to globalisation... is dead and buried.” The Foreign Office, he added, must become “the international delivery arm of this Government’s missions,” starting with economic growth.
To give that strategy institutional heft, Mr Lammy announced a raft of initiatives aimed at embedding business collaboration into the core of British diplomacy. From the next financial year, ambassadors in priority markets will be assessed not only on political engagement but also on their delivery of trade and investment wins. A new Lancaster House Business Engagement Series will convene quarterly meetings between senior diplomats and top UK firms, while ambassadors will be tasked with delivering annual regional roadshows to deepen ties with local industry. He also revealed the creation of a Geopolitical Impact Unit within the FCDO — a “one-stop shop” for businesses to access strategic insight and feed their own intelligence into government policymaking. As Mr Lammy put it: “Every successful CEO is a form of Foreign Secretary… the team around them know what it means to be diplomats.”
What emerges from these twin addresses is more than ministerial alignment. It is the articulation of a shared doctrine: that in the age of AI, Britain’s economic strength, geopolitical influence and technological capacity are not separate concerns, but mutually reinforcing priorities.
2. PHILIPPINES JETCO
KEY POINTS:
Britain and the Philippines upgraded their trade relationship with the innugural Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) meeting in London.
The meeting covered the usual trade issues - agriculture, infrastrcuture - but also included a passing mention of artifical intelligence governance, a first.
It follows sustained economic engagement between the two nations, with both choosing to institutionalise strategic dialogues within the last five years.
British-Filipino relations have entered a new phase of strategic engagement, marked by deepening cooperation across trade, security, and regional diplomacy. The relationship, long cordial but historically underweight, has gained fresh momentum in recent months through a series of high-level exchanges and tangible policy developments.
On Monday, British Minister for Trade Policy and Economic Security, Douglas Alexander, and the Philippines Department of Trade and Industry Undersecretary Allan B. Gepty inked a JETCO statement in London. The top line saw the pair commit to work closely over the next 12-18 months, including government-to-government and government-to-business activity “in agreed priority areas such as infrastructure, agriculture, energy, economic development, life sciences, and technology.” Opportunities in offshore renewable energy featured heavily in discussions. In a tangible breakthrough, the Philippines lifted bans on UK beef and poultry imports, which were previously imposed due to concerns over diseases. This removal is expected to boost UK meat exports by an estimated £80 million over the next five years. The country also represents the fourth-largest pork export market for British farmers.
Quoted
“Today’s talks signify an important new chapter in our trading relationship with the Philippines, one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies. Deepening our trade with partners like the Philippines and showing that the UK is open for business in Asia is vital for this Government’s mission to deliver economic growth. I look forward to working with the Philippines and to deliver trading opportunities that will benefit both our economies.”
Douglas Alexander, Minister for Trade Policy and Economic Security
The bilateral agenda, however, extends beyond commerce. Defence cooperation has been quietly but steadily intensifying. A five-year memorandum of understanding, concluded last year, aims to facilitate joint military training and maritime security exercises. The UK, a formal ASEAN Dialogue Partner, has reiterated its commitment to deepening regional engagement through both bilateral channels and multilateral forums. And following his diplomatic swing through East Asia, Foreign Secretary David Lammy paid an official visit to the Philippines last week, underscoring Britain's interest in Indo-Pacific affairs. In a move widely interpreted as a signal of solidarity, Mr Lammy delivered remarks aboard a Philippine Coast Guard vessel, voicing support for a “free and open South China Sea”; language carefully calibrated to resonate with Manila and its regional allies amid rising maritime tensions with China. His meeting with President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. further cemented the visit’s political significance.
Noted
In 2024, Britain was the largest single investor in the Philippines, driven mainly by investments in renewables.
Britain’s Ambassador to the Philippines, Laure Beaufils, has likewise been a consistent and visible presence, earning plaudits for her firm and frequent public statements in support of the Philippines’ maritime sovereignty, particularly in the face of increasingly assertive Chinese behaviour in contested waters.
DEFENCE
Keir Starmer and John Healey, the Defence Secretary, boarded a Vanguard Class submarine, which contains the nuclear deterrent, as it returned after months at sea.
The Prime Minister delivered remarks to Permanent Joint Headquarters and military planners at Northwood.
The first cohort of Royal Australian Navy Submariners have qualified to serve on Royal Navy nuclear submarines, part of the Royal Navy's commitment to AUKUS.
Britain’s Ministry of Defence and the Armed Forces of Malta signed a Bilateral Cooperation Plan, formalising the longstanding defence relationship between the UK and Malta, and agreeing on cooperation for the future.
Analysis by the House of Commons Library team found that between 2019 and 2024, the economic output of the shipbuilding sector increased by 72%. Over the same period, the economic output of the manufacturing sector overall declined by 1.4%.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Keir Starmer spoke to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. He congratulated him “for his pivotal role in the US-led ceasefire talks in Jeddah last week. Both leaders agreed that securing a just a lasting peace is in everyone’s interest, and they both looked forward to seeing progress as talks resume on Sunday.”
David Lammy hosted Igli Hasani, the Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs of Albania, in London. Talks focused on strengthening bilateral ties and creating more opportunities for British investment in Albania.
Mr Lammy also spoke to Azerbaijan Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov to congratulate him on the recent news about the peace agreement text between Azerbaijan and Armenia. He met Radosław Sikorski, Poland’s Minister for Foreign Affairs.
Douglas Alexander, the Economic Security and Trade Minister, met the Ukrainian Ambassador, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, “to reaffirm our solidarity with Ukraine.”
Kemi Badenoch, the Leader of the Opposition, spoke to Gideon Sa’ar, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the State of Israel. Mr Sa’ar “thanked her for her party’s firm support and moral stance regarding Israel and invited her to visit Israel.”
This week saw the first visit of a Mongolian Speaker to the United Kingdom to hold talks with his counterpart, the Speaker of the House of Commons.
SANCTIONS
Britain released data in the OFSI’s Annual Review on the full effect of UK sanctions on Russia, with over £25 billion of Russian assets reported frozen.
SOFT POWER AND AID
Prince William has visited Estonia to support UK troops in what is now the British Army's biggest operational deployment overseas, defending the Baltic state from the threat of Russia.
Baroness Jenny Chapman, the Minister for International Development, met Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
A Ghanaian delegation arrived as part of the UK-Ghana Healthcare Roadshow.
TRADE & BUSINESS
Peter Kyle, the Science and Technology Secretary, took a ride in a driverless Waymo car in San Fran alongside Peter Mandelson, the British Ambassador.
Japan’s Mitsui Fudosan announces it will invest £1.1bn to expand the British Library.
Guyana's Ministry of Health inked a US$3.3 million agreement with the UK-headquartered Riomed Limited to establish an electronic health records system.
WESTERN BALKANS
KEY POINTS:
Karen Pierce started her new role UK Special Envoy to the Western Balkans.
The region is a focus for Britain, particular with regard to tackling irregular immigration.
This week, Karen Pierce, an accomplished diplomat and former British Ambassador to Washington, assumed her new role as the UK’s Special Envoy to the Western Balkans. Her appointment marks a calculated shift in London’s approach to a region that, while often peripheral in Whitehall’s strategic calculus, remains an arena of mounting geopolitical significance and latent volatility.
The UK has long viewed the Western Balkans as geopolitically important, but recent developments have heightened its relevance. Factors such as irregular migration (a significant issue for Labour), regional stability, and shifting U.S. engagement drive this renewed focus. On the global geopolitical macro, as Baroness Arminka Helić recently noted in Politico, the region remains a battleground for Russian and Chinese influence, a transit hub for organised crime and illegal migration, and a potential flashpoint in an increasingly unstable Europe.
Quoted
“Despite its history, however, the region remains strategically vital — a geopolitical area where Russia and China vie for influence, and a transit corridor for illegal migration, arms smuggling and organized crime. And now, as Europe confronts its most uncertain period since the Cold War, perhaps since World War II, this much-maligned region could prove to be a reason for unity.”
Baroness Arminka Helic, writing in Politico this week.
She formerly advised the then Foreign Secretary William Hague.
Politically, the UK, and especially the Labour Party, has maintained strong credibility in Kosovo and, to a lesser extent, in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008, remains one of Britain’s closest regional allies. This stems in part from former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s leading role in NATO’s intervention against Serbian forces in 1999. In BiH, the UK has played a key role in post-war reconstruction and institutional stability, reinforcing its commitment to the country’s sovereignty.
Noted
In 2010, during a visit to Pristina, former Prime Minister Tony Blair met nine boys named Tonibler or Toni, all in his honour, following Labour’s support for the NATO intervention a decade before.
However, the geopolitical landscape remains precarious. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reinforced the strategic necessity of engaging with Serbia while maintaining strong alliances elsewhere in the region. A diminished U.S. presence in the Western Balkans would be destabilising, as the region remains fraught with unresolved ethnic tensions and reliant on international security mechanisms.
Kosovo, for instance, faces ongoing tensions due to its Serb minority, which looks to Belgrade rather than Pristina. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has escalated rhetoric, falsely claiming ethnic cleansing against Serbs in Kosovo, which complicates British diplomatic efforts. Meanwhile, Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority entity in BiH, has become a focal point of instability. Its leader, Milorad Dodik, was recently convicted for secessionist activities, prompting the EU to bolster its EUFOR mission in the country. There is growing concern that Serbia could exploit the situation, especially as Vučić faces mounting domestic unrest.
Noted
According to World Bank estimates, over 1.2 million Albanian citizens, or more than 44% of the current population, have migrated abroad. Remittances from the Albanian diaspora play a significant role in the country's economy, around 9.2% of Albania's GDP in 2022.
Trump figures continue to influence the region’s dynamics. Richard Grenell, former U.S. envoy to the Western Balkans and now Presidential Envoy for Special Missions, remains an outspoken supporter of Serbia, raising concerns in Pristina, Sarajevo, and other regional capitals.
Albania, while largely insulated from the ethnic and territorial tensions defining the Western Balkans’ geopolitical landscape, remains pivotal in Britain’s security and economic considerations. London’s intensified crackdown on organised crime networks has shone a spotlight on Albania’s role as a key transit hub for illicit activities, including narcotics trafficking and human smuggling into Western Europe. This week, Igli Hasani, Albania’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, engaged in high-level discussions with Foreign Secretary David Lammy, an interaction that underscores the growing importance of Anglo-Albanian cooperation in security and economic affairs.
Quoted
“The Western Balkans is of long-standing importance to the UK, and our partnerships in the region are central to our efforts to tackle irregular migration and bear down on the evil trade in human lives. Hosting the Berlin Process in the UK demonstrates our commitment to European Security, and to delivering on the government’s Plan for Change.”
Foreign Secretary David Lammy
The question, then, is not whether Britain should engage, but how it can deploy its diplomatic and strategic assets with maximal efficacy. This in turn led to the creation of the upcoming Western Balkans Summit, taking place later this year, and run by Ms Pierce. If executed astutely, Britain’s recalibrated engagement with the region could serve as a blueprint for its broader foreign policy ambitions in a world increasingly defined by geopolitical fluidity and strategic competition.
Do you imply we should bring back dad’s army? Was great TV though