Telegram 20
Trade for days and Ecuador: Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker
As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.
Hello,
Did you know that in 2022, the weight of fish caught illegally on the high seas was equivalent to three million male African elephants? That this black market is worth between $10 and $23.5 billion annually, comparable to the entire GDP of a dozen African nations, many of which are among the hardest hit?
Well, I do! I’ve been mulling it over for some months, and as part of my ongoing series of provocative ideas, I’ve put together a company pitch to bring it to an end and outlined why I believe the British Government should take a strong interest.
Introducing FISH, INC., the lurker in the deep.
— Sam Hogg
Britain celebrated the 80th anniversary of V.E. Day.
Keir Starmer, Britain’s Prime Minister, signed two trade agreements, one with India, and one with the United States. Mr Starmer also delivered a standard speech on Britain’s defence posture, and visited Oslo for a meeting with the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).
David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, visited Poland to attend a meeting with EU Foreign Ministers, before travelling on to the Balkans and Ukraine.
John Healey, the Defence Secretary, delivered a speech on defence posture.
Pat McFadden, the Duchy of Lancaster, delivered a speech on cyber and artificial intelligence. He announced Britain would send financial aid to help both Moldova and Ukraine fend off Russian interference in cyber matters.
Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, visited Oslo. Britain and Norway signed a Green Industrial Partnership.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, Minister for European Union Relations, met with Ministers from Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man today to discuss the new strategic partnership the UK is building with the EU.
Daniel Noboa, the Ecuadorian President, visited London. The only media coverage was of his wife, an influencer, meeting King Charles III.
The British Government mulled over plans to limit the amount of time and conditions applied to certain immigrants in the country. A white paper on immigration is due next week. Media reported it would target citizens of Nigeria, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka and make it harder for them to obtain visas, citing high rates of overstays and subsequent asylum claims.
The British Government monitored ongoing protests between the Indian and Pakistani diaspora in London, and called for de-escalation in Parliament.
1. Trade baby trade
KEY POINTS:
Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed new trade agreements with India and the United States
The deal with India has been years in the works, and is a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). It is not without controversy, particularly on points around Indian workers not paying National Insurance Contributions (NICS)
The framework deal with the United States appears primarly around tariff reductions, and is not legally binding. The full text has yet to be published, but indicates a notable focus on bilateral attention towards China on issues including unfair subsidies and export control discussions
The Downing Street maths is simple: Things that are good for the UK = better national security + richer country + better chance of being reelected + more money to put into the NHS and other bits. Things that damage the UK = tariffs + a trade war + domestic issues like job losses. In short: Britain needs to get its economy growing. To this end, Prime Minister Keir Starmer sealed the deal on two distinct trade agreements this week, with further details to come in the following months.
The first was with India. This FTA marks Britain’s most commercially significant post-Brexit trade accord. Valued at £25.5bn in annual bilateral trade gains and projected to boost UK GDP by £4.8bn a year in the long run, the deal sets out to deliver comprehensive tariff reductions across 90% of tariff lines, including sharp cuts on UK whisky, gin, cars and medical devices. Indian exports, such as garments, jewellery and frozen prawns, gain near-total duty-free access to the UK. The agreement also secures a three-year exemption from double social security contributions for short-term workers, while sidestepping broader visa liberalisation. In normal talk, that means the Government does not have to grant more visas to Indian workers (a point of contention during the negotiations and which would have caused significant upset in Westminster), but gets heat for Indian workers ducking NICS.
Quoted
“Delighted to speak with my friend PM Keir Starmer. In a historic milestone, India and the UK have successfully concluded an ambitious and mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement, along with a Double Contribution Convention. These landmark agreements will further deepen our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and catalyse trade, investment, growth, job creation, and innovation in both our economies. I look forward to welcoming PM Starmer to India soon.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Twitter
Beyond goods, the FTA grants British firms unprecedented access to India’s sprawling public procurement market, estimated at £38bn annually, and introduces robust protections for intellectual property, marking India’s first such commitments in a trade deal. Financial and professional services firms benefit from binding investment terms and a framework for mutual recognition of qualifications, while digital exporters gain guarantees on cross-border data flows, source code protections and e-commerce facilitation. The agreement also introduces modern disciplines on competition, technical standards, customs and trade facilitation, aiming to reduce frictions for UK SMEs navigating India’s high-barrier, high-growth market - good news for companies such as Vodafone, which has suffered at the hands of this unorthodox market.
Noted
Currently the biggest country in the world by population, India is projected to move from its fifth-largest global economy to third in the next three years, thanks to the highest growth rate in the G20
Politically, the deal is framed as a clear trade win by both sides. In reality, it is also a strategic hedge: deepening ties with a rising economic superpower amid geopolitical shifts and trade tensions with the US and EU. Notably, it secures India’s first FTA chapters on anti-corruption, labour rights, gender equality and the environment, potentially suggesting New Delhi’s gradual convergence with global regulatory norms. Yet limits remain: legal services are excluded, and talks on a bilateral investment treaty continue.
Two days later, President Donald Trump and Mr Starmer had a televised video call to announce their trade breakthrough. The UK-US Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD) has a different focus, is a sectoral trade arrangement designed to remove tariffs in key industries, and is not legally binding at this stage. However, some of its provisions are already operative and carry significant implications for British industrial policy, transatlantic regulatory cooperation, and geopolitical alignment.
Quoted
"This is a maxed out deal that we're going to make bigger."
President Donald Trump
It’s worth unpacking some of the raw detail: the agreement cuts US import tariffs on UK vehicles from 27.5% to 10% for up to 100,000 cars annually, aligning with existing export volumes. The UK will benefit from the removal of US steel and aluminium tariffs previously set at 25% - a point both the Prime Minister and Trade Secretary emphasised at length - although access is capped under a new quota regime. Reciprocal quotas on beef, set at 13,000 metric tonnes, have been agreed without relaxing UK food safety standards. The UK eliminates its 20% tariff on US ethanol, granting a duty-free quota of 1.4 billion litres. Preferential pharmaceutical access remains under negotiation, with both sides signalling intent to reduce barriers in this high-value sector.
On non-tariff measures, there is no change to the UK’s Digital Services Tax, but both countries have committed to negotiating a digital trade agreement to streamline cross-border services. The deal also sets a precedent for UK exemption from future US Section 232 tariffs, conditional on supply chain security and national security cooperation. That’s particularly worth noting given that the document discusses economic security at length, including that both nations “intend to cooperate on the effective use of investment security measures, export controls, and ICT vendor security, building on the current levels of close alignment on trade and investment security measures.” Some British commentators described this as Mr Starmer handing Mr Trump a “veto” over Chinese investment, but that appears to be a stretch given the non-binding nature of the agreement. Additionally, there was talk of further cooperation on many emerging tech and AI issues, a particular interest area for Britain’s Ambassador Peter Mandelson (who proved instrumental in getting this agreement over the line.)
Strategically, the deal serves as a calming movement. It is not a comprehensive free trade agreement: it lacks full services liberalisation, intellectual property provisions and full tariff rollback. And the UK retains regulatory autonomy on agri-food imports, explicitly rejecting US pressure to lift bans on hormone-treated beef. The deal's binding components are limited and politically contingent, but it opens a durable channel for targeted economic integration under a securitised trade model.
2. Welcome to the ‘New Ecuador’
Daniel Noboa, the President of Ecuador, visited Britain. He was met with almost no media coverage, and didn’t hold a meeting with Prime Minister Keir Starme, although he did meet King Charles III
Mr Naboa delivered the Canning Lecture at Canning House, and met various companies, touting potential investment opportunties in ‘New Ecuador’
His first meeting was with Palantir’s Vice President in the UK
Fresh from his recent election victory, Ecuador’s President, Daniel Noboa, arrived in London. Accompanied by seven ministers and high-level officials, the heir to a banana fortune used his trip to deliver an investment-focused pitch at Canning House, and to meet British businesses, urging them to explore his patch. Mr Noboa’s ‘New Ecuador’ initiative, pitched during meetings in London, is a broad political and economic strategy aimed at revitalising the national economy, restoring public order, and attracting international investment. Mining is a significant part of the offer.
Noted
Ecuadorean officials have reportedly told allies of Mr Trump that they are interested in hosting a U.S. military base.
As a recent Economist report noted, “murders [in Ecuador] fell from 45 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 39 last year, the numbers in January and February were the highest on record.” This may go some way to explaining why Mr Noboa’s first meeting in London was with Josh Harris, VP of the (controversial) intelligence-defence-tech-AI firm Palantir. The President’s account tweeted the firm was "a key ally in the use of technology to combat smuggling, customs fraud and strengthen institutional security." Bilaterally, trade between Ecuador and Britain continues to grow, increasing 8% or so last year, primarily driven by foodstuffs and consumables such as fish.
DEFENCE
First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir Ben Key, has stepped down as head of the Royal Navy.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, visited Bosnia and Herzegovina. He also met Caspar Veldkamp, the Dutch Minister for Foreign Affairs.
Harriet Mathews, Director General of Africa and the Americas, visited Somalia. She met Deputy Prime Minister Salah Jama.
Rachel Kyte, Special Representative for Climate, visited Hanoi to champion the UK-Vietnam climate and energy partnership.
Julius Malema, the controversial leader of South Africa's opposition party, says he has been denied a visa to attend a conference in the UK on 10 May.
Lord Collins, Minister for Africa, spoke to Angolan Foreign Minister Téte António.
Noted
SANCTIONS
Britain sanctioned around 100 oil tankers “that form a core part of Putin’s shadow fleet operation and are responsible for carrying more than $24 billion worth of cargo since the start of 2024.”
DOMESTIC AND DIASPORA
In one of the largest counter-state threat and counter terrorism actions seen in recent times, several Iranian citizens were arrested in the UK.
The British Government released several updates concerning the ongoing situation between India and Pakistan.
TRADE & BUSINESS
The UK Angola Trade Business Forum took place in Angola, and focused on the Lobito Corridor, infrastructure, agriculture and finance.
DIPLOMATS
Kara Owen has been appointed His Majesty's Ambassador to Ireland.
Bilal Zahid has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to the Slovak Republic.