Telegram 23
: Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker
As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.
Hello,
News reaches British Diplomacy Tracker HQ that Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser, Muhammad Yunus, is scheduled to visit the UK from 9 to 13 June. On his trip, he is due to meet the King and Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Concerningly for Downing Street, Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is briefing local media that Yunis will "raise concerns regarding British-Bangladeshi MP Tulip Siddiq, the niece of Sheikh Hasina."
For those out of the loop on this saga, this note provides a summary of the background and current sticking points. Also on the agenda: an Arctic visit and implications for new trade lanes.
Finally, two last bits of useless trivia BDT dug up in recent transparency documents: Foreign Secretary David Lammy was gifted a £5,000 ceremonial sword by Qatar’s defence minister in April, per recent transparency documents (he sadly wasn’t allowed to keep it.) And Tech Secretary Peter Kyle was taken out for a meal by multi-billionaire OpenAI leader Sam Altman, costing…£30. Happy reading!
— Sam Hogg
Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, was warned by the International Monetary Fund that any deviation from her original fiscal commitments could trigger a market backlash.
David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, became the first Foreign Secretary to travel to one of the Arctic’s northernmost inhabited points when he visited the Archipelago of Svalbard.
Dan Jarvis, the Security Minister, became the first Security Minister to visit Colombia and Ecuador. His trip was squarely aimed at "tackl[ing] drug smuggling at source."
Maria Eagle, Defence Industry Minister, was in New Zealand. She has been trying to sell British helicopters to the Wellington government.
Catherine West, the Indo-Pacific Minister, visited China. Prince Harry was also in the country, at a conference in Shanghai.
Lord Collins, Africa Minister, visited Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire.
Lord Coaker, Defence Minister, visited Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
Peter Mandelson, Ambassador to the United States, used a speech at the Atlantic Council to again urge for closer ties on AI and technology.
Shein, the Chinese e-commerce giant, has reportedly pulled plans to list on the London Stock Exchange. The news is a blow for the Government, who wanted a ‘win’ for the struggling LSE, but a victory for China hawks and human rights activists, who have argued the firm profits from slave labour in supply chains connected to Xinjiang in China’s west.
The Strategic Defence Review will be published on Monday. It’s expected to include increased investment in vague AI and cyber initiatives.
1. Brrrrrrr
KEY POINTS:
The High North is a region loosely covering the Arctic Circle, sitting to the north of Britain. It has increasing strategic value thanks to climate change, but also emerging threats
Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Svalbard, Iceland and Norway to launch a new national security focused AI initiative alongside Iceland, and announced further sanctions on Russian ships. Rumours circulated that a Defence Secretary trip may soon follow.
The region will become busier as ice melts and new trading paths emerge. Some in Whitehall have called for the Government to commission new icebreakers in the upcoming Strategic Defence Review: the singular vessel Britain currently has is old
The Arctic has seen a sustained increase in attention from Westminster as of late. Given the context - the first major European conflict on the continent in half a century, an increasingly bellicose Moscow sowing concern among northern neighbours and eyeing the retreating ice, abundance of critical minerals locked beneath the sea - this is unsurprising. British attention reached a new level this week with Foreign Secretary David Lammy visiting Svalbard, an archipelago at the meeting point of the Arctic and Atlantic oceans.
Quoted
“The Arctic is becoming an increasingly important frontier for geopolitical competition and trade, and a key flank for European and UK security…It’s more important than ever that we work with our allies in the High North, like Norway and Iceland, to enhance our ability to patrol and protect these waters.”
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary
Mr Lammy’s visit saw a couple of notable announcements. The first involved artificial intelligence, with the launch of a vague “new UK-Iceland scheme to use cutting edge AI technology to monitor hostile activity in the region.” There was mention of undersea cables and similar technologies, and briefed media added that “the UK has committed £554,000 for the Alan Turing Institute, with Icelandic support, to explore how AI could improve monitoring capabilities and ability to detect possible hostile activity.”
Noted
Since the 1980s, the Arctic has lost more than 40% of its summer sea ice.
The second involved the British Government sanctioning a Russian tugboat thousands of miles away in the Mediterranean. Why? Vengery was scheduled to tow a newly built floating repair dock from Turkey to Murmansk. The dock, essential for maintaining Russia’s newest nuclear-powered icebreakers (Project 22220), is now stranded in the Med. Project 22220 is the designation for Russia’s latest class of nuclear-powered icebreakers, built to maintain year-round navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) - a key Arctic shipping lane that Moscow is increasingly relying on to export oil, LNG, and other commodities, especially under Western sanctions. This means Russia has no Arctic-based floating dry dock capable of servicing Project 22220 vessels.
In isolation, these movements appear disjointed or sporadic. But as noted in previous Telegrams, it’s time for more in Westminster - and the City - to focus on the ‘High North’. Estimates from within the Ministry of Defence on the potential reduction in trade routes thanks to global warming are remarkable (back of the packet maths below), and will have ramifications for other critical chokepoints in the global supply chain system. In a document shared publicly last year, its analysts reported "these routes could be 30–50% shorter than the Suez and Panama Canal routes, reducing transit time by an estimated 14–20 days." Scientific interest in critical minerals and fish stocks, often a precursor for more aggressive commercial activity, has spiked in the region. As noted in a personal essay on the need for an anti-illegal fishing company, warming waters are set to change fishing migration patterns, which in turn may lead to more state-on-state conflict.
The upcoming Strategic Defence Review will focus in part on trying to mitigate the risks presented by Arctic thawing, but one marker of how seriously the Government assesses the threat will be whether it commissions new icebreakers. To this end, Finland is a world leader, producing them at half the cost of its nearest competitor.
CHART OF THE WEEK
2. LESS TALK, MORE ACTION
Having overthrown the previous regime, the new Bangladeshi government is trying to claw back capital it believes was extracted illegaly. One of those accused of vaguely laundering funds is British Labour MP Tulip Siddiq.
The British High Commission has offered help, but alongside other international partners, is growing frustrated with Bangladesh’s lack of concise evidence and key documentation in the process. In a private briefing last month, they chastised the task force assembled to carry out the investigations.
Bangladesh’s key adviser visits the UK next month, and will likely raise the case of Ms Siddiq in meetings with the Prime Minister, much of which may find its way into the papers via leaks
British Diplomacy Tracker readers of old may recall a briefing note from the beginning of December 2024 in which advice was dispensed to “Keep a close eye on Bangladesh.” In the interim six months, Tulip Siddiq, a British MP and former Minister, has been charged by the new Bangladeshi authorities, alleging her involvement in corruption linked to the regime of her aunt, former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Ms Siddiq resigned as Economic Secretary to the Treasury in January 2025, and denies all allegations, labelling them as politically motivated and baseless. Her lawyers assert that the Bangladeshi authorities have not provided any direct evidence or formally questioned her, and they have challenged the legitimacy of the arrest warrant.
Quoted
"We sent the letter back and told them, 'You've got to provide some details,' but we haven't heard back. This letter is going to a court, not to your buddy."
Anonymous source speaks to local Bangladeshi media
The British High Commission has played a crucial role in offering to help the new administration recover funds siphoned off under the previous regime. But it has grown frustrated. At a gathering in the residence last month attended by representatives of the US, Singapore, Switzerland, the European Union, and Canada, those gathered lambasted Bangladesh’s asset recovery task force. Their criticism, leaked to local media, is threefold: loose timelines, lack of urgency, and poor documentation. The last point is particularly critical in building a case, particularly when those accused counter that they are in the crosshairs thanks to partisan politics. To this end, Bangladeshi media reported the diplomats told their counterparts in the government “that no substantial information had been provided to build a case for an international court, with Bangladeshi officials involved in the task force failing to supply adequate details on any specific case.”
This issue will rear its head imminently, as Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus is scheduled to visit the UK from 9 to 13 June per local media, “where he is expected to meet King Charles and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, according to the Foreign Ministry. Governor Mansur will accompany him as part of the delegation.” The Government sees Bangladesh as a frontier emerging market, but concerns about regulatory unpredictability, corruption, and infrastructure gaps limit scale. Despite this, the 500,000-strong Bangladeshi diaspora in the UK plays an important cultural and economic role in the wider bilateral relationship - the UK is one of the top five sources of remittances to Bangladesh.
DEFENCE
Britain, the US, France and Germany lifted range limits on weapons supplied to Ukraine, letting Kyiv hit targets deep inside Russia. UK Storm Shadow missiles could now reach Moscow’s outskirts.
Lord Coaker, Defence Minister, is attending the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin KCB ADC met with Chiefs from the Five Power Defence Arrangement countries - Australia, Malaysia, Singapore & New Zealand.
INTELLIGENCE
MI5 probed arson attacks on Mr Starmer’s homes. The security service is examining alleged Russian links to three fire-bomb incidents targeting the PM’s properties. Two Ukrainians and a Romanian have been charged.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister, warned that Britain’s apparent insistence on "zero enrichment" in Iran renders further dialogue on the nuclear issue futile.
The second UK-Maldives Strategic Dialogue 2025 took place, with a focus on environmental issues among other key areas.
Ambassador Hamish Cowell toured Lebanon’s eastern border to inspect UK-funded border-security kit.
The Cyprus Forum London returned for a second year, hosted at the High Commission of Cyprus in the United Kingdom and co-organised by Oxygen for Democracy in collaboration with the High Commission. Victoria Billing, Director for Europe at the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, was in attendance.
SANCTIONS
More than 800 British lawyers (including ex-Supreme Court justices) wrote to the Prime Minister to state Britain must sanction Israeli ministers to meet its legal duties under the Genocide Convention.
Britain sanctioned Vengery, a Russian tugboat that was scheduled to tow a newly built floating repair dock from Turkey to Murmansk. The dock, essential for maintaining Russia’s newest nuclear-powered icebreakers (Project 22220), is now stranded in the Mediterranean.
AI & EMERGING TECH
The upcoming Strategic Defence Review will have a strong AI focus
TRADE & BUSINESS
Fabian Hamilton, UK Trade Envoy for the Southern Cone, visited Paraguay and met with Paraguayan authorities and stakeholders to explore new partnership opportunities in sectors including trade, investment, sports, clean energy, and sustainable development.
Ambassador Irfan Siddiq met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani to discuss the recently announced £12bn partnership.
DIPLOMATS
Helena Owen has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to the Republic of Chad.
This is incredibly informative, thank you Sam. It’s the first of your Telegrams I’ve read, but I’ll be sure not to miss any more.