Telegram 24
Kenya: Sam Hogg's British Diplomacy Tracker
As a reminder: all opinions expressed in these Telegrams are my own personal opinions, not my employers. This is a project I run in my free time looking at issues under the geopolitical radar.
Hello,
Apologies for the month-long absence. Given that I currently write these notes before 7AM on my weekday mornings alongside a full-time job in AI and geopolitics, I’m going to make them shorter so I can try to publish them consistently.
This week’s Telegram examines Kenyan President William Ruto’s visit to the United Kingdom. This bilateral is one steeped in history and complexity, from the hangovers of the British Empire in the last century to the aspirations of an AI-enabled partnership in the 21st. Both are trying to carve out a tech-enabled future for themselves. Both face varying economic and demographic challenges. Both are facing political heat at home. And both see themselves as deserving of a place at the big boy table on geopolitical and geoeconomic issues.
Finally, I will be visiting Washington D.C. mid-August. If you fancy a coffee/beer/walk, please get in touch!
— Sam Hogg
Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, met Kenyan President William Ruto in London.
David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, visited Turkey. The trip was framed through a national security lens.
Douglas Alexander, Minister for Trade Policy, visited Taiwan. Taipei and London signed an enhanced deal covering three economic themes. As I told Nikkei, “economic engagement with Taiwan continues to go from strength to strength, not by coincidence, but through a concerted strategic push by London and Taipei.”
Baroness Jenny Chapman, Minister for Development, delivered a speech on sustainable fundraising in Seville.
Angela Eagle, Home Office Minister and Simon Ridley, Second Permanent Under-Secretary, met Lieutenant General Pham The Tung, Vietnamese Vice Minister of Public Security, in London to discuss working to prevent and raising awareness about immigration crimes.
Fergus Eckersley, Minister Counsellor, delivered a speech at the UN Security Council meeting on the Middle East Peace Process. "The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s operations which are supposed to be saving lives, are themselves leading to mass casualties," he said.
The Foreign Office summoned the Georgian Chargé d’Affaires in protest over the Georgian Dreams crackdown on civil society, independent media and critical voices in Georgia.
British diplomats returned to London for consultations and meetings, overlapping with the Foreign Secretary's Summer Garden Party.
KenyAI
KEY POINTS:
President William Ruto, Kenya’s leader, visited London. He held bilateral meetings with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and attended an event to drum up investment. The visit formed part of a wider trip which included Spain.
Britain and Kenya recently signed a new Kenya-UK Strategic Partnership (2025–30). Rumours last month, picked up first by British Diplomacy Tracker, were that Mr Starmer would soon visit Kenya.
Military collaboration formed a part of the visit. Defence Secretary John Healey was recently in Kenya as part of a trip to apoligise for British military crimes in the region; a Kenyan inquiry is ongoing into British military behaviour.
This was meant to be a week of celebration for Britain’s Prime Minister. This note arrives in your inbox exactly a year on from Keir Starmer and Labour winning the General Election with a mandate for change and a huge Parliamentary majority.
Instead, Mr Starmer suffered the worst backtrack of his first year in the job on Tuesday, when he was forced to offer punitive concessions on his Welfare Bill thanks to rebelling backbench MPs from his own party. Buffeted by negative commentary and criticism from independent analysts concerned about his fiscal vision, the Prime Minister may have sought some respite a short walk away, as he hosted Kenya’s President, William Ruto, that afternoon.
Noted
The Kenyan Government’s debt in the form of treasury bills crossed the 1 trillion shillings ($7.7 billion) mark after nearly doubling over the past year, reports Semafor.
Perhaps Mr Ruto could have offered a quiet word of support and solidarity. While Britain faces scrutiny from the international bond market, things are looking equally bleak for Kenya. An African Development Bank report published the morning after their bilateral meeting noted that corruption and illicit financial flows cost Kenya as much as $1.5 billion annually. It criticised the country’s elite for state capture, warning the ongoing process of putting political elites in lawmaking and enforcement roles was reducing confidence in the East African nation. Meanwhile, a meme has started to gather weight in Kenya that Mr Ruto promises change but can’t deliver: a concept entirely unfamiliar to British politics.
Quoted
“The two nations [will see] additional cooperation in Artificial Intelligence and emerging technologies.”
Kenyan Presidential Office press release, ahead of the visit.
The crux of the visit came down to renewing the Kenya-UK Strategic Partnership for another five years, with the principal aim of doubling trade between the two nations during that period. Technology and AI formed part of Mr Ruto’s pre-arrival press briefings, and both nations consequently committed to exploring the potential of a bilateral digital trade agreement.
There was discussion of projects such as the Nairobi Railway City, a development that will transform Nairobi’s Central Business District, inspired by London’s Kings Cross. On climate cooperation, the two countries will work together to unlock green finance from public, private, and blended sources. In the British readout, migration was mentioned, with Mr Ruto agreeing to “disrupt organised immigration crime and human trafficking in Kenya to prevent onward migration to Europe.” As a separate readout noted, “Four of the top ten countries for Small Boat arrivals in the UK are near neighbours of Kenya (Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia).”
Mr Ruto’s Twitter account revealed a series of wider meetings: a discussion with the Prince of Wales, a talk with Tony Blair of the Tony Blair Institute, and a visit to the London Stock Exchange. With unfortunate timing, an Economist article published 48 hours later urged Mr Ruto not to stand for re-election, saying “a less tainted successor would have a better chance of getting the reforms Kenya needs.”
On defence, the Government stated that sales worth over £70m were agreed during the visit, and highlighted that Kenya hosts Britain’s most significant military footprint in Africa, including a facility that trains 3,000 UK troops a year. In a conversation with Kenyan radio, Britain’s Deputy High Commissioner, Dr. Ed Barnett, was asked about the controversy surrounding British troops’ behaviour in the country.
On the sidelines of ‘The Africa Debate’ in London, Foreign Secretary David Lammy met Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, which culminatd in a joint statement adding further depth to the wider discussion. During a corresponding Kenya-UK Investment Forum, global health-insurer Bupa, speciality (re)insurer Africa Speciality Risks (ASR) and multilateral lender Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) each signed memoranda of understanding to establish operations under the Nairobi International Financial Centre (NIFC).
CHART OF THE WEEK
DEFENCE
A UK Defence Innovation (UKDI) has been established and aims to streamline the delivery of innovative technology to Armed Forces personnel. With a £400 million annual budget, it aims to create high-skilled jobs in the tech sector and drive economic growth.
A stranded F-35B at Thiruvananthapuram airport in the southern state of Kerala has become an internet sensation.
Julia Longbottom, Britain’s Ambassador to Japan, has been talking up relations between Portsmouth and Tokyo.
INTELLIGENCE
The Foreign Influence Registration Scheme came into effect. It is a two-tier scheme: the political tier requires registration of any arrangements to carry out political influence activities in the UK on behalf of a foreign power, including political communications or lobbying senior decision-makers, such as MPs and election candidates. A more stringent enhanced tier applies to foreign powers considered to pose a risk to the UK’s safety or interests - the whole of the Russian and Iranian states have been placed under this tier, after being approved by Parliament. China was kept off the enhanced tier, angering politicians and campaigners alike.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Baroness Chapman, Minister for International Development, Latin America and the Caribbean, welcomed Peruvian Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Felix Denegri, to London and co-chaired the 6th session of the Peru-UK Political Consultations.
The United Kingdom and Singapore held the 10th UK-Singapore Financial Dialogue in London.
Ahmad Safadi, the Speaker of the Lower House of Jordan, visited London and held several political meetings.
SANCTIONS
Britain proscribed three groups: Palestine Action, Maniacs Murder Cult and Russian Imperial Movement. MPs must now vote and agree to the designations, in what is likely to be a highly strung debate.
AI & EMERGING TECH
The Technology and Energy Secretaries chaired the second meeting of the AI Energy Council. They discussed the potential need to 20x the UK’s compute in the next five years, and how to build energy systems to account for that.
TRADE & BUSINESS
The UK-US trade deal came into force on Monday, slashing US export tariffs for the UK’s automotive and aerospace sectors.
IndiGo, one of India’s largest domestic airlines, launched its first direct flight from Mumbai to Manchester.
Kenya Airways officially launched direct flights from Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport to London Gatwick.
Indonesia and the UK marked the completion of the first phase of the programme “Towards a Low Carbon Energy Transition in Indonesia” (MENTARI) with a strong commitment to deepen their collaboration on a just and inclusive energy transition.
A delegation of UK health businesses met with the Ethiopian Food and Drug Authority and the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service.
DIPLOMATS
Smita Rossetti has been appointed British High Commissioner to the Commonwealth of The Bahamas.
Kathy Leach has been appointed His Majesty’s Ambassador to the Republic of Latvia.
The London residence of the Irish Ambassador to the UK is costing the taxpayer €43,500 per month.